Canada Now and in 2060
The Present and What Lies Ahead
Introduction to the Demographics, First Nations and Immigration of Canada
The Intergral Role of Immigration
Current Immigration SituationCanada's immigration policy has always been an open door for immigrants. More than 150,000 economic immigrants entered Canada last year which will bolster the every growing Canadian economy. More than 250,000 new Canadians have been given permanent citizenship last year alone, higher than the yearly average over the past 20 years. Most of these immigrants come from Asia in pursuit of a better life, economically and socially. However even with the benefits of high numbers of immigrants, native born Canadians have a harder time finding jobs in this highly competitive economy. Furthermore, the number of temporary workers is double the amount of new permanent residents. This means that there are many places where they use foreign labour rather than local labour.
Some companies and businesses misuse the temporary worker policy and replace Canadian labour with cheaper temporary workers. Canada has also been more selective of where refugees can come from, which is why Roma refugee seekers have been denied. Canada also has a harder stance on the conditions for certain immigrants, with policies like conditional permanent residency and budget cuts for refugee health care.
Pull Factors Towards Canada in 2060
- Free health care
- Free education
- Free from political prosecution
- Good infrastructure
- Enables families to immigrate together
- Canada will still be multicultural
- Canadians are and still will be perceived to be very nice and good natured
- Stable government
- Higher income
Future Immigration to Canada
In the future, I believe that immigration will still be an important part of Canada and the racial background of Canada will further change. Additionally, I strongly assume that in the year 2060 most immigrants will settle in big cities like Toronto and Vancouver like they do now. This is because when people go to a completely unknown place, they tend to congregate around familiar things. In cities, there are entire neighborhoods with a certain race and cultural influence, this is where most immigrants will segregate themselves by choice. I believe that in the year 2060, the main source of immigration will be from Asian and African countries. This is because of how people in the two continents have a dissatisfaction with their governments in terms of freedom and safety which won't likely change in the decades to come. I believe that by the year 2060, the number immigrants would be at the same level as it is now in order to keep the economy growing and to counteract a lower birth rate in the future.
Push Factors for Immigrants in 2060
- Political instability
- Poor Infrastructure
- Low wages
- Natural Disasters
The Demography of Canada
Current Demographic of CanadaIn the ever changing face of Canada, the country is being morphed with more foreign born citizens and to supplement a birth rate that cannot lead towards further growth. The baby boomers, the largest age group in Canada are beginning to retire from their jobs and the dependency load in Canada is rising because of that. In addition, for the first time, there are more people aged 55-64, than people aged 15-24. This means that the working population in Canada have to pay more to the government as government expenditures increase with more health benefits and other government programs. The average life expectancy of Canada is 81.67 years, the 14th best in the world. Additionally, the dependency rate of Canada is steadily rising from an growth of the number of elderly people.
Furthermore, the infant mortality rate is at 4.6 per 1000 and is slowly decreasing. The current death rate in Canada is at 7.2 per 1000 people, this number is stable at this point of time. The current birth rate is at 1.61 births per woman. This situation where the population must grow, but the birth rate does not even reach the replacement rate, which is why an increasing number of foreign born Canadian citizens are accepted each year and incrementally changing the face of Canada. These immigrants are the reason that Canada has the highest population growth rate of 1.2% in all of the G7 countries.
The most concentrated areas are in the province of Ontario, which is the most populous provinces in all of Canada. Currently, an estimated 75% of Canadians live within 161 km of the U.S border. In Canada, 81% of the population lives in cities and are the destinations of many immigrants that come to Canada, which is why the racial diversity in cities is much different than more rural areas. Most immigrants live in racial and cultural niches inside these cities.
The Future Demographic of Canada
In the year 2060, the demographics of Canada will change drastically in terms of size and composition. Immigration will still be an important part of Canada's population growth and the racial diversity will be even more different, especially in cities. With the advent of more advanced medical technology and healthy lifestyles, I believe that by the year 2060 the life expectancy will increase and the infant mortality rate will be almost nonexistent. The death rate would lower considering that the number of elderly people would counteract the increased life expectancy, by making death within a 1000 person range increase while the life expectancy decreases it. Therefore, I predict that the natural increase of Canada will slighter rise by 2060 because of a almost nonexistent infant mortality rate and lower death rate. In addition to that, our cities will be even larger and diverse because of the accumulation of immigrants from different countries.
The Situation of Canadian First Nations
Current SituationThere is a huge difference in the conditions which first nations people have to live in. For some, their education, health care, housing conditions and economic opportunity are very poor and limited, while others have the same opportunities that we do. There is a cycle of poverty and poor economic opportunity that affects many natives that don't live in the reserves. Many promises made to natives in the past have not been wholeheartedly supported since schools and housing in reserves are not as properly funded and administered like the rest of Canada. Furthermore, many heath care services are not readily accessible to many natives.
Many natives don't have a connection with their cultural background and turn towards a life of alcohol which many of them were exposed to as children. Alcoholism is a problem of endemic proportions in some native communities even though it is illegal in some of these places. This causes large amount of social problems from a lack of responsible drinking experience and alcohol addiction. Although, there are exceptions where native people overcome these barriers and lead healthy lives. The suicide rate and incidents associated with mental issues for native youth is much larger than the national average, which is contributed to social problems like childhood abuse and a lack of mental care.
In Canada, there is a misconception what of native people do and act like. For example, the image of natives are still associated with how they acted hundreds of years ago. Many people see them as "freeloaders" who unfairly benefit from government policies and there is a idea where native communities are plagued with alcoholism.
Future of Native People
I predict that in the year 2060, some first nations people will have better opportunities and living conditions from increased recognition and care from the Canadian government, but the majority would be ignored and continue to decline socially and economically. Furthermore, I believe that the situation for native youths mental health with not be properly addressed and it will lead to many suicides and mental issues. In addition, I believe that the economic situation will not improve for many natives living outside of the reserves and the unemployment situation for young natives will grow in number, and many will turn towards more lucrative means of getting money.
I foresee that the alcoholism and other problems in native Canadian settlements will improve by the year 2060. This is since all cultures around the world have experienced serve alcoholism at one point, and moved pass it as they got more used with alcohol. Moreover, with the more mutual agreements made with companies, I can see a more friendly and productive relationship with natives on reserves and companies that benefits the natives in the future that leads up to 2060. Additionally, the native birth rate is already starting to decline, because of the improving but slow economic and social progress for natives. This follows a similar model like that of the start of a stage 3 demographic transition pyramid. I predict that by the year 2060, the birth rate of natives and the rest of Canada would be very similar or a stage 3 demographic transition pyramid.
I think that in the year 2060, the majority of people will still not see natives as any average person, but with the same misconceptions we have today. This is because I don't believe that the media and government will take many steps in order to change the public image of First Nations people.
Canada in 2060 by Long Zeng