Canada Now and in 2060

The Present and What Lies Ahead

Introduction to the Demographics, First Nations and Immigration of Canada

Canada is a country that progresses ahead with its immigration policies. While it largely ignores the plight of a large part of the native population, this all affects the rapidly changing demographics of Canada. It has one of the highest immigration rates in the world and Canada has one of the largest growth rates of the industrialized world even without a large birth rate. The native population is largely ignored and a lot of them are in poverty. However, some have seen conditions improve and programs are in action that are trying to change this. Canada has turned into a place where immigration and its demographics are entirely intertwined.
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This graph shows how the fertility rate in Canada has been lower than what is needed for the replacement rate (number of people to replace the mother and father). This shows how immigration is needed in order to make sure that Canada grows economically and population wise, or else the population will decline. This also justifies the high immigration rates, which will help the Canadian born population take the jobs of the many baby boomers who will retire.

The Intergral Role of Immigration

Current Immigration Situation

Canada's immigration policy has always been an open door for immigrants. More than 150,000 economic immigrants entered Canada last year which will bolster the every growing Canadian economy. More than 250,000 new Canadians have been given permanent citizenship last year alone, higher than the yearly average over the past 20 years. Most of these immigrants come from Asia in pursuit of a better life, economically and socially. However even with the benefits of high numbers of immigrants, native born Canadians have a harder time finding jobs in this highly competitive economy. Furthermore, the number of temporary workers is double the amount of new permanent residents. This means that there are many places where they use foreign labour rather than local labour.

Some companies and businesses misuse the temporary worker policy and replace Canadian labour with cheaper temporary workers. Canada has also been more selective of where refugees can come from, which is why Roma refugee seekers have been denied. Canada also has a harder stance on the conditions for certain immigrants, with policies like conditional permanent residency and budget cuts for refugee health care.

Pull Factors Towards Canada in 2060

  • Free health care
  • Free education
  • Free from political prosecution
  • Good infrastructure
  • Enables families to immigrate together
  • Canada will still be multicultural
  • Canadians are and still will be perceived to be very nice and good natured
  • Stable government
  • Higher income

Future Immigration to Canada

In the future, I believe that immigration will still be an important part of Canada and the racial background of Canada will further change. Additionally, I strongly assume that in the year 2060 most immigrants will settle in big cities like Toronto and Vancouver like they do now. This is because when people go to a completely unknown place, they tend to congregate around familiar things. In cities, there are entire neighborhoods with a certain race and cultural influence, this is where most immigrants will segregate themselves by choice. I believe that in the year 2060, the main source of immigration will be from Asian and African countries. This is because of how people in the two continents have a dissatisfaction with their governments in terms of freedom and safety which won't likely change in the decades to come. I believe that by the year 2060, the number immigrants would be at the same level as it is now in order to keep the economy growing and to counteract a lower birth rate in the future.

Push Factors for Immigrants in 2060

  • Political instability
  • Poor Infrastructure
  • Low wages
  • Oppression
  • War
  • Natural Disasters
  • Unemployment
  • Overpopulation
  • Poverty
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This graph shows how the demography will change over the next few decades. This shows the baby boomers who are an aging and retiring part of are population, will become dependent on the younger generation. In addition, you can see how different the ratios are between the native population and the rest of Canada. You can see how the native birth rate was growing, but has started to decline indicating that the trend is going to start flowing that of a stage 3 demographic transition model. This graph supports the idea that the native population is gradually moving towards average of the Canada, while the baby boomers retiring will greatly affect Canada.

The Demography of Canada

Current Demographic of Canada

In the ever changing face of Canada, the country is being morphed with more foreign born citizens and to supplement a birth rate that cannot lead towards further growth. The baby boomers, the largest age group in Canada are beginning to retire from their jobs and the dependency load in Canada is rising because of that. In addition, for the first time, there are more people aged 55-64, than people aged 15-24. This means that the working population in Canada have to pay more to the government as government expenditures increase with more health benefits and other government programs. The average life expectancy of Canada is 81.67 years, the 14th best in the world. Additionally, the dependency rate of Canada is steadily rising from an growth of the number of elderly people.

Furthermore, the infant mortality rate is at 4.6 per 1000 and is slowly decreasing. The current death rate in Canada is at 7.2 per 1000 people, this number is stable at this point of time. The current birth rate is at 1.61 births per woman. This situation where the population must grow, but the birth rate does not even reach the replacement rate, which is why an increasing number of foreign born Canadian citizens are accepted each year and incrementally changing the face of Canada. These immigrants are the reason that Canada has the highest population growth rate of 1.2% in all of the G7 countries.

The most concentrated areas are in the province of Ontario, which is the most populous provinces in all of Canada. Currently, an estimated 75% of Canadians live within 161 km of the U.S border. In Canada, 81% of the population lives in cities and are the destinations of many immigrants that come to Canada, which is why the racial diversity in cities is much different than more rural areas. Most immigrants live in racial and cultural niches inside these cities.

The Future Demographic of Canada

In the year 2060, the demographics of Canada will change drastically in terms of size and composition. Immigration will still be an important part of Canada's population growth and the racial diversity will be even more different, especially in cities. With the advent of more advanced medical technology and healthy lifestyles, I believe that by the year 2060 the life expectancy will increase and the infant mortality rate will be almost nonexistent. The death rate would lower considering that the number of elderly people would counteract the increased life expectancy, by making death within a 1000 person range increase while the life expectancy decreases it. Therefore, I predict that the natural increase of Canada will slighter rise by 2060 because of a almost nonexistent infant mortality rate and lower death rate. In addition to that, our cities will be even larger and diverse because of the accumulation of immigrants from different countries.

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This graph shows how the unemployment rate for native people is more than double the national average. This tells that, its a lot more likely for a native person to have to live in poverty or in poor conditions because of unemployment, which is directly related with their income. This can be attributed to social problems, or economic problems that stem from personal strife, like childhood abuse which leads to alcoholism.

The Situation of Canadian First Nations

Current Situation

There is a huge difference in the conditions which first nations people have to live in. For some, their education, health care, housing conditions and economic opportunity are very poor and limited, while others have the same opportunities that we do. There is a cycle of poverty and poor economic opportunity that affects many natives that don't live in the reserves. Many promises made to natives in the past have not been wholeheartedly supported since schools and housing in reserves are not as properly funded and administered like the rest of Canada. Furthermore, many heath care services are not readily accessible to many natives.

Many natives don't have a connection with their cultural background and turn towards a life of alcohol which many of them were exposed to as children. Alcoholism is a problem of endemic proportions in some native communities even though it is illegal in some of these places. This causes large amount of social problems from a lack of responsible drinking experience and alcohol addiction. Although, there are exceptions where native people overcome these barriers and lead healthy lives. The suicide rate and incidents associated with mental issues for native youth is much larger than the national average, which is contributed to social problems like childhood abuse and a lack of mental care.

In Canada, there is a misconception what of native people do and act like. For example, the image of natives are still associated with how they acted hundreds of years ago. Many people see them as "freeloaders" who unfairly benefit from government policies and there is a idea where native communities are plagued with alcoholism.

Future of Native People

I predict that in the year 2060, some first nations people will have better opportunities and living conditions from increased recognition and care from the Canadian government, but the majority would be ignored and continue to decline socially and economically. Furthermore, I believe that the situation for native youths mental health with not be properly addressed and it will lead to many suicides and mental issues. In addition, I believe that the economic situation will not improve for many natives living outside of the reserves and the unemployment situation for young natives will grow in number, and many will turn towards more lucrative means of getting money.

I foresee that the alcoholism and other problems in native Canadian settlements will improve by the year 2060. This is since all cultures around the world have experienced serve alcoholism at one point, and moved pass it as they got more used with alcohol. Moreover, with the more mutual agreements made with companies, I can see a more friendly and productive relationship with natives on reserves and companies that benefits the natives in the future that leads up to 2060. Additionally, the native birth rate is already starting to decline, because of the improving but slow economic and social progress for natives. This follows a similar model like that of the start of a stage 3 demographic transition pyramid. I predict that by the year 2060, the birth rate of natives and the rest of Canada would be very similar or a stage 3 demographic transition pyramid.

I think that in the year 2060, the majority of people will still not see natives as any average person, but with the same misconceptions we have today. This is because I don't believe that the media and government will take many steps in order to change the public image of First Nations people.

Supreme Court of Canada Makes Historical Ruling on First Nations Land Claims
This video shows the improving relationship between the First Nations and corporations. Furthermore, it shows how this newfound mutual agreement signifies that the First Nations people will have a greater say in how other people can use their land. However, they are details in the agreement that will allow the Canadian government to overrule the First Nations decision and this does not change anything for the majority of natives which live outside the reserve.

Long Zeng

Canada in 2060 by Long Zeng


In conclusion, Canada's demographics, immigration and first nations people are some of the most integral parts of Canada, culturally and economically. Canadian immigration is why we have one of the fastest growing countries in the industrialized world and the most diverse. Canadian demographics are similar to many other industrialized nations, but we counter low birth rates and an aging population with immigrants to ensure constant economic growth. Canada's First Nations people are some of the most ignored and undervalued members of Canada, however conditions are improving for some and for some communities there is hope in the future. Canada is one the most unique countries in the world with a different approach to many problems.