Canada In 2060

Taking a look at Immigration, Demography and Aboriginals

By: Archan Patel

Introduction

As time passes everything changes... and so does Canada. In the Year 2060, Canada (44 years from now) will be completely different. As a geography expert, I will be analyzing the current immigration, demographic and first nation situations and I will be using that to predict the general shape of the future in terms of immigration, demography and first nations. By looking at various graphs and trends, it is not difficult to complete this task. By looking at the past and what trends took place then, it is easy to predict the same for the future. How will YOUR life change in Canada once your 44 years older. Will it be the same?

Outline:

Immigration:

  • The drastic changes in the immigration rates and emigration rates over time
  • Where will the majority of our immigrants come from
  • Where will the majority of our immigrants move to (which province)
  • How might our current push factors and pull factors differ from the ones predicted in the future
  • How might this affect us as regular citizens

Demography:

  • Differences in the birth rate, death rate and natural increase rate
  • Analysing graphs as evidence for predictions based on demography
  • Other statistic predictions in the future (population, etc.)
  • Demographic Transition Model

Aboriginal:

  • Are we treating them respectfully as of today?
  • How might the population and other demographics of Aboriginals differ
  • Will the gain the respect and equality they deserve
  • Residential schools and their impact

Immigration

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Current:

As of today, we get most of our immigrants from Asia. This is because Asia, specifically India and China have a huge amount of population (2.9 billion combined). All of these immigrants are coming to Canada for a better lifestyle. These immigrants are attracted to the larger cities that we have. For example, Toronto, Vancouver, Windsor, etc. This is because there are more ethnic enclaves in these areas resulting in a smoother transition for the immigrants. Also the weather is fairly warm, making it more comfortable for the immigrants. There are about 250,000 immigrants per annum since 2001. The net migration rate is 5.66/1000 in Canada. These numbers will definitely change over 44 years. Some current pull factors of Canada are universal health care, good education system, democratic government, many job opportunities and safer lifestyle. Fortunately, Canada has very minimal push factors, but one could possibly be the huge amounts of tax we have to pay in order to support things like free health care.

Future:

The future will hold many changes for us Canadians. We will still get the majority of our immigrants from India and China because it is literally impossible to lose billions of people in merely 44 years. Unless there is a war and that is extremely unlikely. As a result, the religion, culture and race of the majority of our immigrants will be the same and therefore the locations to which they want to go will be the same. Toronto, Vancouver and Windsor should expect even more population coming its way.


Canada has 1/5 of all the fresh water in the world and with the needs of water growing globally, it is only logical to move to Canada. Global warming is also a big factor. Countries like India that already have hot weather will soon have hotter weather while Canada will shift into a nice and warm country. This will only begin to happen by 2060. So Canada will have exponential growth of immigrants around that time because of those reasons. This will result in the net migration rate to go up as well. I predict that the number of immigrants will start to rise in the next 44 years.


Our push and pull factors will generally be the same. For example, we will most probably still have our free health care because that is what Canada holds as one the greatest reasons to migrate to Canada. Also, there is no way that Canada will not be a non-democratic country because there is no reason for it to do so. The people of Canada are happy and the government does not have a huge problem with the people

Demography

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Current:

The study of statistics such as births, deaths, income, or the incidence of disease, which illustrate the changing structure of human populations. Canada's current population is 35.16 million. This is very little compared to our neighbour, USA's 318.9 million. This has happened because immigrants are attracted to the USA because they have bigger cities and more favourable weather. We only have a few places like that, the rest is basically empty land. Canada currently has a birth rate of 11/1000 and a death rate of 8.31/1000. This means that our current natural increase rate is 2.69/1000. The population growth rate is 1.2% annual change. This is pretty big because the USA only has 0.7% annual change. With all of this information it is easy to figure out the rule of 70 (years until population doubles). The rule of 70 for Canada is 58.33 years. Moving on, Canada is currently in stage 4 of the demographic transition model. In this stage, both the birth rate and the death rate are relatively low. However, if we consider the population created from the baby boomers, it isn't long before we enter stage 5. In this stage the birth rate is lower than the death rate. We are going to enter this stage because, women now have jobs and education unlike not so long ago. This means that they will have less kids. So we will have less kids and more seniors (stage 5).

Future:

The birth rates are definitely going down because of the trends that are already present (more education and jobs for women). I expect the birth rate of Canada in 2060 to be around 6/1000. This is because families want less kids, but they don't want no kids (at least 1). The death rate should increase a bit. As time goes by, scientists will find cures to diseases and improve the sanitation. However, with all the baby boomers living their last breaths, there will be a lot of deaths due to their population. My prediction is 8/1000 for the death rate. With this, the natural increase rate should be -2/1000 causing us to go to stage 5.


It is logical to think that since we are going into stage 5, our population should not increase. But we can't forget about the net immigration rate. This will be our biggest reason for population growth because of the predictions made regarding number of immigrants and why in the Immigration section. If we consider the rule of 70 that we calculated before, the population of Canada in 2060 should be about 52 million.

Aboriginal

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Current:

Aboriginal people are the people that are recognized as the first immigrants to North America. This is their homeland. They have different cultures and religions from us. They are broken up into 3 types, First Nations, Metis and Inuit. The First Nations are the people that have a long ancestry in this land. The Metis people are the children of European explorers and Aboriginals. The Inuit are the people that live up north, for example Nunavut.


These people have not been treated fairly in the past. They were assimilated and cheated for land. The land that is now Toronto was bought for what would be $200 today. Aboriginal people were also forced to go to residential schools. Aboriginal children were forced to go to these schools which would cause them to have to live separate from their families for about 8 years. At these schools they weren't allowed to speak their own languages. Also, these children were abused by some teachers at the schools. Since they weren't given the love from their parents because of this most of the parents today don't now how to raise a child. The residential school students from then are now parents. This is causing the current aboriginal teenagers to commit suicide (not nurtured properly). Aboriginal teens have the highest rate of suicide in Canada. As you can tell, they weren't treated fairly back then but they still haven't fully got what they deserve.

Future:

The future for the Aboriginals will be a little bit better than it is right now. I predict this because our new Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has been working hard to help out the Aboriginals. For example, he has begun the investigation for a crime about 200 aboriginal women missing. This happened a long time ago, but Stephen Harper didn't look into this problem. Secondly, the public is understanding that the Aboriginals should be treated fairly, thus the political figures must do so to obtain votes. This is why the government will slowly give aboriginal the rights they deserve.


However, since the aboriginal teens today have the highest rate of suicide (as discussed in the demography section) the teen population today is low. In 44 years, when they are in the work force the dependency load will be massive amongst the aboriginal communities. The current adults will become old and helpless and the current teens will have babies to support as well.

Video

Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future - Kim Preshoff

Watch from 1:49

This video is made by Ted-Ed. So it is definitely a trusted source. In this video they also say that Canada's population will increase. They mention that it will increase slower than some countries like Rwanda. They are expected to double their population in a decade. I mention this in the demography section. I say that the Canada's population will grow and the dependency load will increase as well (which was mentioned in the video). This video also supports the fact that a population pyramid can tell you things that will happen in the future and things that happened in the past. I predicted that the number of elderly people would sky rocket because of the baby boomers slowly going into that age group. This can also tell us that there was a huge increase in the birth rate around World War 2.

Conclusion

We have looked at the current and future situations of immigration, demography and Aboriginals. The current trends helped me predict the future trends in terms of these topics. I also used the past to develop a future with the baby boomers example. For immigration, I can say that we have a lot of immigrants headed are way in the near future for various different reasons and that will impact the people already living in this country. How do you think that will impact you in 44 years? In terms of demography, we looked at statistics and using the already present trends we made reasonable predictions for what each of the statistics will look like in 2060. Demography is a very important aspect for demographers in order to make predictions. Finally, the Aboriginal past was analysed and discussed and we took that and predicted the future as well. For example, we looked at the effects of the residential schools to aboriginal ancestors. Based off of that and the fact that aboriginal teens are committing suicide we predicted their demographics and their social status in terms of what we think towards them and in terms of what they think towards themselves. Were these predictions right? Only time can tell us...44 years can tell us!