Canada in 2050

by Sophia Yang

Introduction

What will Canada be like in 2050? Flying cars and robots walking around? I don’t know about that. We would have to wait and see. But we can predict some things like Canada’s demography, immigration and first Nations people. Will the birth and death rates increase or decrease? Is Canada’s immigration system still going to be as welcoming and how much of Canada’s population will be immigrants? How would First Nations people's living conditions be like? Through this smore all these aspects will be looked at; the current and future predictions of Canada's immigration, demography and First Nations people in 2050 following the trends and facts that lead us to an idea of how Canada would look like 36 years in the future.

Immigration

Population growth?

Immigration looks to be the only source of population growth in 2050. As you will learn later the birth rates and natural increase rate is not likely to increase and may actually decrease but Canada's population is estimated to grow to around 40-50 million (statcan). So how is the population going to increase? Immigration.


  • Number if immigrants per year: around 250 000 (2010) (immigrationwatchcanada)
  • Number of immigrants per year in 2050: around 250 000


I think the immigration rate will be around the same because it has been around 250 000 new immigrants per year for a number of years now so i think this trend will continue. Since 1990 the number of immigrants have started to more consistant and have remained around 250 000.

If the annual intake of immigrants remains roughly the same then by 2050, just with immigrants, Canada's population will grow more than 9 million.

As this graph shows Canada's annual intake of immigrants, only since 1990 has it been consistent where as before it has been ups and downs. I predict that this trend will continue and Canada will still intake around 250 000 if not more immigrants per year.

Where are the immigrants coming from? And where will they settle?

  • Today most immigrants are coming from Asia and the Middle East. They have been the largest source of immigrants in the last 5 years (statcan).
  • In 2050, I predict that most immigrants will come from the southern equator because of global warming and natural disasters. There has been a recent increase of immigrants from Africa, central South America, Caribbean (statcan). Those are all countries in the lower parts of the equator. Global warming will make those countries in 2050 be unbearably hot and with limited resources as crops cannot grow and more natural disasters ruining their homes.
  • Currently, most immigrants are settling in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Alberta. (statcan)
  • In 2050, I predict that immigrants will settle to provinces up north for example the Northwest Territories and also the Maritimes because as people are settling in provinces like Ontario and B.C, soon they will be overpopulated as some parts are already very dense in population for instance Toronto. The will cause more immigrants to choose a different province that is less dense.

Demography

Birth and Death rate

  • current birth rate: 10.28/1000 people (2013) (indexmundi)
  • current death rate: 8.2/1000 (2013) (indexmundi)

Currently, the birth rate is higher than the death rate but in 2050 I don't think that will be the case. I think the death rate will be higher than the birth rate because as Canada is a developed country, women tend to have less children and in fact the fertility rate is only 1.59 children per women so the birth rate will be low. Over the years, the birth rate have been decreasing especially after the 'baby boomers' time. In 1981, Canada's birth rate was 14.9/1000 people (statcan) and is now it is 10.28/1000 people (2013) (indexmundi). In 2000, the death rate for Canada was 7.39/1000 people (indexmundi)and how its 8.2/1000 people (2013) (indexmundi). The trend is that the death rate will continue to rise and the birth rate will continue to drop and this trend will continue to 2050.

This graph indicates the number of births compared to deaths dating back to 1926. Is also has a future prediction about how the number of deaths will be bigger than the number of births by 2050 which is also my prediction. As you can see during 1946-1966 the number of births increased dramatically because of the 'baby boomers'. Then over the years deaths of increased continuously while the births have started to decrease. if this trend continues... deaths will outnumber births by 2050.
This graph shows the population of Canada from 1851 to now and a prediction of what the population would be like in 2051. The graph clearly indicates that the population of Canada will continue to grow.

Fertility rate:

  • Canada's current fertility rate is 1.59/ women (2013) (indexmundi)
  • In 2050 canada's fertility rate is not likely to increase. This is because as Canada is a developed country and has been for a while, the fertility rate has always been low already (except during the 'baby boomer' years). In 1980. Canada's fertility rate was 1.7 children per women (theworldbank) and now it currently 1.59/women (2013) (indexmundi). So as you can see, Canada has been following the trend of having a low fertility rate for many years and the rest of the world is also following. In 1960 the worlds average fertility rate is 4.92/women (worldbank) and in 2011 it is 2.41/women.

Canada's population

Canada's population will continue to increase by 2050.


  • current population: 34,568,211 -2013 (indexmundi)
  • By 2050: 40-50 million (Statcan)
  • Population growth rate: 0.77% 2013 (indexmundi)
  • population growth rate in 2050: increase
  • natural increase: o.4 (2013) (www.prb.org)
  • natural increase rate in 2050: decrease
  • Net migration: 5.65 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2013 est.) (indexmundi)
Net migration 2050: increase

The natural increase will decrease because in 2050 the death rate will be higher than the birth rate so the natural increase will decrease. The net migration will increase because in the future Canada will stay as one of the best countries to live in and the new immigrants will cause the net migration to increase. So, even though the natural increase rate will decrease, the net migration will make up for it so the population growth rate will still increase.


Aboriginals

Population:

  • Current: 1 400 685 (2011) ( statcan) 4.3% of total Canadian population, in 1996 the Aboriginals were only 2.8% of the total population.
  • 2050: I predict that the total Aboriginal population will increase to 8% of the total population because I think the trend will carry on to 2050 and the population will grow even more rapidly. One of the reasons for almost a double in population from 1996 to 2011 was because Aboriginal women have a higher fertility rate of 2.6 children per women (statcan) compared to Canadian women.


  • Inuit: 3.4 children per women (statcan)
  • First Nations: 2.9 children per women (statcan)
  • Metis: 2.2 children per women (statcan)
This graph shows the population growth for Aboriginals. In 5 years the population has gone up by 20.1% which is due to higher fertility rates in Aboriginals women.

Employment rate:

In 2008, the unemployment rate for aboriginals was 13.9% (statcan). Only 57% were employed. In 2050, i think unemployment rates will increase because as 2050 welcomes many new immigrants. Less jobs will be available as jobs for Aboriginals are already scarce. Aboriginal women have a unemployment rate that is twice as high as non-Aboriginal women.

Education plays a big role in employment. Having a better education increases chances of being employed and is even more significant for Aboriginals. Aboriginal women who have not finished high school, the unemployment rate is 20.5% (2006) (statcan) but Aboriginal women who have finished high school and has a done some post secondary schooling, the unemployment rate is 5.8% (2006) (statcan) . This shows how education plays a big part in Aboriginal employment and will be even more important in the next 36 years because of the large amounts of new immigrants. Finding a job will be more likely for Aboriginals if they have a better education.

The graph above shows the employment rate of Aboriginal women compared to non- Aboriginal women. In 2009, the non-Aboriginal women have twice the employment rate than the Aboriginal women. Only 57% of Aboriginal women were employed in 2009.. it is the lowest out of the 3 years which is why I think the employment rates will continue to decrease.
The Kiuna Institution: Offering post-secondary education for First Nations

Video: The Kiuna Institution

In this video, it describes a post secondary school for First Nations after high school that offers many programs like law, social sciences etc. that help students learn about their culture and traditions and be concerned for the well- being of their communities. The school in is Odanak, Quebec and First Nations students come from all over. This video helps prove my point of view of saying education is very important for Aboriginals to be successful and employed and is especially needed in the next 36 years. If employment rates need to go up, then so does the education and this is a prime example of how education can affect students futures.

Audio:

aihpos19

smore: my life in 2050 by aihpos19
https://soundcloud.com/aihpos19/smore-my-life-in-2050



hey ms.potyrala! when i embed the link it doesnt play back so here the link for it if it doesnt work :)

Works cited:

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