Canada-2035

Will Canada be the best country to live in 2035???

A Step Further

They express Canada as a great a country with endless opportunities and traits such as; immigration, multiculturalism, education, healthcare and the list goes on. With a population number of 34,834,841, Canada offers lots to each and everyone. However their are question that arise in everybody's brain such as, Will Canada be the BEST country to live in 2035? This flyer will deeply analyze this topic through various point of views, scenarios along with facts, challenges, solution etc. and will try to, somewhat, answer this question. This flyer will answer all the questions in a categorical format, the categories are; Population Trends, Canadian Physical Environment, Canada's Resources/Industries-Relations and last but not least, Canada's Livable Communities

Step By Step!!!

There are predictions that have been and continue to be made if whether or not Canada will be a successful country in the future. Majority of them predict that Canada is a growing country that has not fully developed in terms of success, they say that Canada is expected to make further progress and bring prosperity to its citizens. Although, one cannot make a prediction without analyzing the current stage. Therefore this flyer will outline each case's current stage and the prediction being made.

Population Trends

The Canadian population is one of the many things that highlights Canada from the rest of the countries. According to the CIA world fact book, the Canadian population number rests at 34,834,841 (2014 est.) with 250'000 immigrants per year. This portion of the flyer will go over the current population and immigration trends/demography of Canada along with the prediction that have been made, any challenges Canada might face etc.

Canadian Immigration Trends

The Canadian immigration process occurred 100s of years ago, even before Canada existed as a nation. From the Aboriginals (that immigrated from the Bering State) to the French and British expeditions, from the Loyalists (Tories) to the African-American Slaves, immigration has been a very main and central part of the Canadian history. The immigration procedure became official after the Canadian Immigration Act was passed in 1976/8, the system still continues to play a huge part in Canada. Stat Can. indicates that immigration is responsible for approximately 70% of the population growth of Canada. All of the immigrants come to Canada for their different reasons. However, many are attracted to Canada due to it's very highlighted pull factors, factors such as; good healthcare, free education, freedom, multi-culturalism, human rights and the list goes on. On the other hand, there are some immigrants that do return back to their country due to the hardships that they, at first, have to face, factors such as; not fitting in, lack of jobs, language difficulties etc. although the amount of people who go back is very minor. Furthermore, there are immigrants that come from around the world but the top three countries that provide the most immigrants to Canada happen to be China, India and Philippines.

But, How might immigration shape Canadian future lifestyle? What will the Canadian immigration process look like in the future?

Immigrating to Canada

Canadian Immigration Future

As said earlier, immigration plays a huge part in the Canadian population. With the declining birth rate, the population will rely largely just on immigration. Along with filling in the blank space due to lack of birth rate, immigration is predicted to also resolve many current economic deficits. It is predicted that the immigration rate of Canada by 2035 be 7.5/1000. According to the Canadian Immigration policy, immigrations for Canada is essential for demographic and economic misbalances/problems. They include; aging population, employment lack/additional skills, less population, and many more. With no doubt it is confirmed that Canada, in the coming future will attract many due to Canadian future success. Canada will be an attraction especially to those looking for employment opportunities, urban living, and of course better quality of life. That being said, lets look into some stats.

Stats suggest, most of the Canadian population is aging, the baby boomers are reaching retirement age which leaves a huge blank in the working society of Canada, 22% of the population would be over the age of 65 by 2036. With this lack Canada can face huge economic declines in the future therefore getting more workers will be very essential.

As said earlier, Canada will attract lots of immigrants looking for a new job, economy class immigrants, due to the huge job opportunities. It is estimated that there will be 2.6 million skilled job vacancies by 2021, that is for sure going to project by 2035.

Furthermore, like currently, new immigrants will mostly choose to live in metropolitan cities such as Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver due to their urban success for GTA alone is home to 43% of all immigrants that come to Canada per year. All of these metropolitan cities will develop further thus inviting/attracting more immigrants

(The following is a graph for the Immigration rate observed (1951/1952 to 2008/2009) and projected (2009/2010 to 2035/2036), Canada by Stats Can.)

Big image

Canadian Demography

Canada is a huge country with variety of different population trends, indeed Canada has faced various changes in terms of demography, in the past decades. However the current demography state is as following:

  • The Canadian population is currently at a figure of 34,834,841 with 17.1% seniors, 15.5% non-working age and 67.2% working age population.
  • Canada is a stage 4 country, in terms of the demographic transition model which makes it a "low stationary" country which as defined as having a low and stabile birth/death rate, total population being high and balance with no/slight growth, very good healthcare etc.
  • The birth rate rests at a number of 10.29 births/1000 population and the death rate is at a number of 8.31 deaths/1000 population.
  • The CIA World Fact-book indicates that the population growth rate of Canada is 0.76%, 144th compared to the world.
  • Most of the urban population is distributed in; Toronto 5.573 million; Montreal 3.856 million; Vancouver 2.267 million; Calgary 1.216 million; OTTAWA (capital) 1.208 million; Edmonton 1.142 million (2011)

These are just some of the demographic stats that Canada is facing. Currently, most of the Canadian population is mostly dependant on immigration due to low birth rate and the retirement of the baby boomers. The question however occurs, How will the Canadian demography look like in 2035?

Big image

Canadian Demographical Future

Canada is going to face many changes, some slight-some significant, for the better or for the worse and the Canadian demography is no exception. The Canadian population projection is very significant for the coming years. The following is some population projection statistics for Canada 2035 by the Stats Can.--- For a complete copy, click the button below.

  • According to Stats Canada's selected scenarios, by 2036 the Canadian population will range anywhere from 40.1- 47.7 million, going up a lot from our current population (35 million). Immigration being the main reason to population projection.
  • It is expected that 23%-25% of that population will be represented by the seniors (baby boomers) which means 9.9-10.9 million senior-age people by 2036.
  • The working age population, however, will decrease a lot being 60% of the total population.
  • This makes the dependency load of Canada 2035, 26 children under 14yrs and 39 people over the age of 65 per every 100 working-age people.
  • Furthermore, the birth rate and the death rate are also going to differ a lot from now, the birth rate is projected to be 429,300 in 2022/23 and according to the Stats Can. it will remain stable until the 2030s.
  • The death rate is expected to be 375,400 in 2035/2036.
  • This will make the natural increase rate, approximately 53'900.

All of that being said Canada will still be a stage 4, low stationary, country for the deaths haven't outnumbered the births. To keep it from going into a declining stage, Canada must keep the immigration process going and encourage birth.

In conclusion, these are just some of the many demographic indicating changes that are expected to occur in Canada. Although the changes still aren't going to make the Canadian population decline for it is projected to grow until at least, 2050. However, these changes can pose challenges to Canada but these changes will not eliminate trends such as importance of immigration, aging population, uneven growth between province/territories etc. These Demographic Trends will also not stop it from being a great country to live, not all that much!

Population Projection of Canada- 2009/2035

For a complete copy of analysis on how the Canadian demography might look like in 2035 click the button above for a link to the guide by The Stats. Canada (PDF)

FNMI- Current Status

The Canadian Aboriginals have been around for thousands of years, in Canada. With a population number of 1.4 million, this population represents about 4.3% of the total population. The FNMI population, as the Gov. of Can. indicates, is the most youngest and the most fastest growing population in Canada. Furthermore, the Aboriginal Canadian population is at a developing stage; (the following graph shows the 2009 census of what the population pyramid of the FNMI will be) the birth rate is fairly high and the life expectancy is not that high either, the death rate remains high and stable.

The Aboriginals have been neglected and denied equal status for many years, they were denied the right to keep their land property, the right of speech and the right of freedom. Although this was improved, slightly, but still there are many issues that the FNMI population is facing. Issues such as; lack of good healthcare, the healthcare in reserves is very poor which makes the FNMI death rate higher than the average Canadian death rate. Poverty, drug abuse and education is a growing issue in the FNMI population and reserves therefore the question arises, What challenges might the FNMI population face in the future?

Big image

Canadian FNMI population- Future

The above population pyramid also presents the FNMI population trends in the future. As obvious, the FNMI population will urbanize and develop a lot, the birth will decrease along with the death rate(death rate increases slightly). However, along with all the developing comes several challenges that the FNMI population will have to face. As the graph shows, the death rate is not going to increase by a lot from 2009-2034 which signifies that the healthcare will get worse from what it is now for if it was to get better the healthcare would increase yearly but it only increases 1-2% in 24 years.

Moreover, according to the current status, it is predicted that the Aboriginals will face challenges in land property. For example; The Aboriginals in Alberta, Athabasca are facing difficulties already in land owning due to the oil mining and since the oil mining is to increase, the Aboriginals will lack land property even further.

Lastly, one of the many challenges that will be faced by the FNMI population will be employment. The current generation is already not getting a very fine education and will continue therefore employers will avoid hiring Aboriginals. This will affect further generation and economy very significantly.

Canada's Physical Environment

Canada Physically Now

Canada is the second largest country in the world with an area of 9,984,670 sq km. Canada is also a four-season country with climate regions that varies from temperate in south to subarctic and arctic in north. Although, climate change has affected the Canadian average weather temperature a lot. The Gov. of Canada states that from 1948 to 2010, the Canadian climate got warmer by 1.6 degrees Celsius. That's way more than many regions in the world. Climate change has caused many impacts in Canada, they include; shifting precipitation patterns, vegetation, population patterns, rising sea levels, economy, decline in human health, industrial loss etc. It is said that the Canadian arctic is in big danger due to climate change, the Polar Ice Capp has decreased 10% in the past decades and if this trends continue it will not just impact Canada but the whole world. How will Climate change affect the Canadian Future?

Canada is one of the countries with a variety of different physical regions. First off, Canada has seven different landform regions; Western Cordillera, Interior Plains, Canadian Shield, Great Lakes- St Lawrence Lowlands, Appalachians, Arctic Lowlands, Hudson Bay Lowlands and The Innuitian Mountains. Each and everyone of these landforms is whole on it's own, which means that all of these landform regions is special and different from all the others in a specific characteristic(s). For example; Interior Plains has huge deposits of oil due to the location. It covers Alberta which is Canada's largest oil producer.

In addition, Canada also has eight different climate regions; Arctic, Taiga (the largest climate region), Cordilleran, Pacific Maritime, Boreal, Prairie, Southeastern and Atlantic Maritimes. The climate region of each community determines the population patterns of that community, the urbanization, the economy, the agriculture and vegetation etc..

Speaking of vegetation, this country has seven varieties of natural vegetation regions and four different soil regions. The vegetation regions are; West Coast forest, Cordilleran vegetation, Boreal and Taiga forest, Grassland, Mixed Forest, Deciduous Forest and just above the tree line there is, the Tundra vegetation. The soil region are as follow; Tundra soils, Wet-climate soils, Dry-climate soils and Complex soils of the mountain areas. The soil regions determine what kind of vegetation the community has.

All of these factors impact a lot on the growth of the community, population patterns, industrial patterns, economy, relation and networking with other communities/regions etc.

Climate Change in the Canadian Arctic

Canadian Environmental Future

The climate change is one of the biggest future threats that will affect Canada in many ways. Researchers have been predicting the affects for years, they have been implementing projects to reduce the impacts.

Stats Can. suggests that the main area in Canada that will be affected will be the Canadian Arctic along with many that will be impacted due to the changes in the Arctic. It is predicted that the future climate changes include; changes in the precipitation level of Canadian regions, extreme weather such as heat waves, flooding, droughts etc. In addition, Many regions in Canada will be affected by the changes in the ocean due to the nearness too large bodies of water, which will include; extreme sea level, ice conditions, extreme rainfall etc. According to the Gov. of Canada, the climate change will affect the Great Lakes' sea level and stream-flow therefore the occurring of floods will be more frequent. It is also predicted that in the Prairies, water levels in ponds, and lakes will decline, therefore changing water characteristics which means less available drinking water across the province. Moreover, climate change will also affect vegetation and agriculture nation-wide. What's more is due to the warming of the climate many vegetation regions used to a colder climate will strongly decrease affecting the habitats etc. Since the frequency of droughts and storms will increase, it will have negative impacts on the agriculture due to the lack of growing seasons and the destruction of crops. This will not just impact the farmers but the citizens and the economy of Canada as well.

However, as said earlier, there are projects being implemented across the nation reducing and preventing extreme impacts, projects by the Gov. of Canada, The David Suzuki Foundation and many more associations.

(The following map shows future climate warming in North America by the year 2035--- By Government of Canada)

Big image

Canada's Resources/Industries & Relations

Canada's Economy Now

Canada is the one of the world's most richest countries with one of the best economies. As one of the best economies, Canada has trade relations with many countries such as; UK, Mexico and USA. Canada's largest trade partner is the US, especially after the NAFTA. USA gets approximately 47% of Canadian exports. China and UK follows next with China getting 4.3% of the Canadian exports and UK getting 3% of the Canadian exports. Who will Canada have trade relations with in the future?

Furthermore, due to Canada's large area and the four-season climate, this nation has a great variety of different resources. Moreover, many of those resources have, are and will establish a huge amount of industries with enormous job opportunities. The majority indicates the oil sands as the most valuable resources that Canada has right now. In fact, Canada is the sixth largest oil producer in the world and Alberta produces the most oil in Canada. According to the Alberta Gov., oil sands have been giving lots of benefit to the Albertan and the Canadian Economy. They state that in 2012, approximately 121,500 people were employed in Alberta's oil sand related jobs and oil sands currently employ 112'000 Canadians, outside of Alberta. There are many projects that are in action and are being planned towards further development of the oil sands, projects such as the Keystone XL pipeline (see following video). However, there are many protesters and environmentalists protesting against the idea of further oil sands development or any projects for it creates harm to the environment. Many state that the oil sand usage is not sustainable and if this continues the amount of oil produced per day will decrease a lot and won't be enough for future generations.

This case is not just with oil sands, but also many other resources aren't being used sustainably.

What will be the future of the Canadian industries and resources? How will Canada use it's resources sustainably?

Big image
Everything You Need to Know About Keystone XL
Reality Check: Canada's Oil Sands

Canadian Economic Future

Canada has a vast variety of resources and industries that leads Canadian Economy to a great future. According to the CIA world fact-book, Canada has a GDP (per capita) of $43'100, 19th compared to the world. That being said, the resource that is most important to Canada right now and in the future will be the fossil fuels industry. Research predicts that the Canadian oil production will increase 75% by 2035. The crude oil production will boost up to 5.8 million barrels/day, that's a lot of increase from the current rate.

Furthermore, one of the largest industries in Canada by 2035 will be the production/secondary industries for the extraction of resources is comparatively less than the actual production. The secondary industries employ a lot of Canadians nation-wide and contribute a lot to the Canadian GDP. Moreover,energy industry is and will be Canada's most important and helpful tool to a successful economy. The following are several statistics about the future Canadian economy:

  • Between 2014 and 2038 oil sands investment, re-investment and operating revenues are expected to be $3,865 billion for Canada.
  • The oil sands industry will pay an estimated $1.5 trillion in provincial ($302 billion) and federal ($574 billion) taxes and provincial royalties ($590 billion) over the next 25 years

  • Direct employment in Canada as a result of new oil sands investments is expected to grow from 149,000 jobs in 2014 to 225,000 jobs in 2038. When including indirect jobs, employment numbers more than double across Canada in both years.

  • It is estimated the oil sands industry will purchase about $117 billion in supplies and services from Canadian provinces outside Alberta over the next 25 years – about $5 billion/year.

  • For every direct job created in Alberta’s oil sands industry, approximately one indirect and 1.5 induced job will be created in the rest of Canada.

  • Oil sands investment also has significant implications for Canada’s international trade and investment

ON THE OTHER HAND OF THINGS....

Canadian Oil Sands bring in diseases and will increase if not controlled. The Alberta Oil Sands also occupy many of the Aboriginal Land and the project of increasing them will totally occupy the Aboriginal Land. In addition, the oil sands are researched to be the most dirtiest way of producing Energy in the world. Infact, the oil sands are what contributes to the Canadian climate change the most due to the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions passed/day. Due to the mining of it, there are lots and lots of hundreds of Albertans who die/month due to the toxins passed into the air, it causes cancer, lung and kidney disease etc. and it will double and triple by 2035 if not solved. Currently, 12% of the GHG emissions are passed just by oil sands. Oil sands also contribute to a lot of waste of water, and contamination in The Athabasca River in Alberta. All of these analysis will double and triple if the problem isn't fixed completely.

The oil sands are not being used sustainably and will not be enough to feed the coming generations therefore if there is anything that needs to urgently happen right now, it will be to reduce the amount of oil sands used per day and use them sustainably. To do that, Canada will have to reduce the amount of oil sands mined per day and make sure they're mined and used in a non-harmful manner. Moreover, Canada will also need to reduce the amount of future projects that are being planned, Keystone XL pipeline, to stay sustainable and not harm the environment, people and the world.

David Suzuki Talking energy, pipelines and tankers with Fairchild TV
How Canada benefits from oil sands

Livable Communities

Canadian Communities Now

The Canadian communities are what have pulled many for years. The fact that most of the cities are urban has led to positive and negative impacts. In 2011 the statistics state that the urban population of Canada was 81% with Toronto, Canada's largest city, having the most population, at a population number of 5,573 million (2011). Toronto is one of the largest cities in Canada that attracts more than half od the immigrants that come to Canada. Toronto is also one of Canada's most urban cities followed by Montreal, Ottawa and many more.

However, urbanization has many impacts on a country, negative and positive. As cities get bigger, more successful and urban, more and more people want to live there, this is called "urban sprawl." Urban Sprawl is one of the most threatening issues that urban Canadian communities are facing right now. Urban sprawl is affecting our way of life in many ways. One of the most obvious and most biggest impacts is the harm to the environment. The David Suzuki Foundation states that urban sprawl is cutting down precious wildlife and habitats for further urbanization and reducing green space along with risking many species lives and habitats.

Moreover, urban sprawl contributes largely to the global warming and climate change. More population density means more urbanization for a community which includes automobiles, construction, pollution and many more harms. Urban sprawl increases the carbon footprint of a community by a lot.

Furthermore, as said earlier, urban sprawl contributes to a high population density for a community. High population density means more congestion and for families/residents who find quieter and less-congested areas appealing are in big loss. High population density means less land value and low population density means high land value. For instance if you were to buy a house in Mississauga it would cost ore than buying a house in Toronto due to different congestion levels, Mississauga is less congested than Toronto.

These are just some of the many ways urban sprawl is affecting and will continue if nothing is done about it. How will Urban Sprawl shape the Canadian future and what can Canada do to prevent it?

Canadian Communities are also facing an issue of lack of sustainable communities/development. Many communities in Canada are getting more developed/successful and urban yet what is not considered is the way of their development. Sustainable development, in particular means meeting the needs of today without compromising the needs of future generations. Many urban and successful communities such as Toronto aren't developing their cities sustainably. Infact, the Suzuki Foundation states that Canada has the most dangerous and threatening environmental record of any developed country, ranked 28th of 30 OECD countries. However some out of many cities are considering sustainable development into their way of urbanization and resolving community-based issues, for example Montreal.

Therefore the question arises, How can Canada be more sustainably developed in the future?

Understanding Sprawl- A Citizens Guide

To know more about the Urban Sprawl click the button above for a detailed guide about this topic by the David Suzuki Foundation.

Canadian Future Communities

We know that urban sprawl, unsustainable growth of communities exist but what can this mean in the future and how can we fix it?

Urban Sprawl is going to be a big threat to the Canadian development as a successful nation if nothing is done about it. As many of the cities/provinces will get more urban and successful, the population of those communities will increase very significantly, arising population imbalance, lack of enough resources and land-usage facilities, economic deficit etc.

Taking the province of Ontario as an example... According to the Gov. of Ontario, the population of Ontario will grow to 17.2 million in 2035, adding another 3.7 million people over the period. Furthermore, it is predicted that just by 2021 At the current rate, an additional 260,000 acres of rural land will be urbanized, all of this rural land includes 92% of Ontario's finest agricultural land-use. In the near-future, the Golden Horse-shoe of Ontario will be the third largest, most urbanized region in North America, which will cause a lot of pollution, congestion etc. The Golden Horse-shoe in the area in Ontario that will be most affected by Urban Sprawl, which includes the newly-made City of Mississauga. Mississauga is also a growing city, and is/will be effected by urban sprawl due to the growing urbanization abilities.

Urban Sprawl will continue to occur if nothing is done about it, however there're solutions that can resolve this issue and reduce the amount of negative impacts it can provide to the province of Ontario. The following portion will go over the solutions of urban sprawl that will help the province of Ontario and largely, Canada.

Urban Sprawl is for sure a threat to Canada, more severely, Ontario although it can be resolved to a certain extent. There are projects that are being implemented and planned to help prevent this issue. Therefore, using the city of Ontario as an example, again, the following will promote and indicate several ideas, solution, and projects that can help.

First of all, to resolve the issue of lack of agricultural land, which in the coming years will decrease a lot in Ontario, Agricultural Land Reserves should be implemented. This will make a boundary between the urban land and the farmland which can protect it from urbanizing/getting destroyed.

Additionally, we can implement a variety of house-units which will prevent for residents to sprawl into another community. Many families sprawl due to the lack of their desired housing-unit in a good price. For instance, The City of Toronto mostly has single-family housing units and apartments causing many families with more 1-2 kids to move out into cities like Mississauga or Brampton which contributes to Urban Sprawl.

Moreover, landowners who own personal area of land shouldn't sell land to the city or any other association for further development to prevent urban sprawl. This will prevent the growth of buildings, malls, or any other kind of land-use facilities thus reducing of the amount of people desiring to sprawl to the City.

These are just some of the many ways a City/Country can prevent Urban Sprawl, although it can only be prevented to a certain extent. As urban development occurs, more people come, that is to say that no community prevents urban development. Indeed urban development shouldn't be prevented as long as it is being done right and sustainably.

Speaking of urban development and sustainability several Canadian communities have taken the initiative of developing their society sustainably. However, sustainable development is a concept that ought to be practiced nation-wide and more largely, world-wide. Focussing on Canadian communities, it is confirmed that many will face lack of long-term development due to non-sustainable communities, there further generations will not be able to live as urban as we are if the trend is continued due to lack of enough resources and money. The question therefore arises, "what initiatives will Canadian communities take to grow sustainably?"

There are many projects that are being taken to the government but are ignored. However, several projects are accepted and have big differences in those communities. Some of the communities will resolve their issues regarding the society, land-uses etc. through a sustainable manner. Many civil engineers are already starting to implement the idea of sustainable and a future city concept into their plans. For example, Montreal came up with an idea of sustainably making an urban farm with an industrial-sized sunroof to make healthy agriculture without the use of any toxins, chemicals or pesticides. IF this trend continues, Canadian communities will take initiative to solve the problem of unsustainable communities. Although the sustainable concept is very minor at the current stage but is still starting to sprout, Canada will have to create at least 75% of their developing projects sustainable, for starters.

In Conclusion

To Wrap It All Up...

As Canada is growing, it is not taking in consideration the challenges, obstacles and consequences such as, Urban Sprawl, Unsustainable Development, Climate Change and many more. The Canadian Government is not planning the growth through a long-term procedure which will at one point decline the Canadian growth and other successful aspects largely. Therefore if the current trends are continued, Canada will not be the greatest country to live in 2035. To avoid that, all that is needed is a critical, long-term planning-procedure for the growth of this nation. Although, if Canada does choose to analyse each of the future development ideas thoroughly, it can be saved from huge declines and lead it's way to a great country!

(The following video is David Suzuki's perspective on the Canadian growth and if Canada will be a great country in the coming future)

Earth to Canada, says David Suzuki

The End

By; Abdullah Munir