Demographics of Canada in 2060

By Evan Feldman

Canada Today

Today, Canada is undeniably one of the best countries in the world to live in, with unsurpassed living conditions and a stable economy. However, things change over time and with our internal demographic factors and the changing economic and social world outside, Canada may be a very different country in 2060 than the Canada we know today.

Immigration Today

Canada is currently a country reliant on its immigration, one of the top 25 in the world in terms of net migration rate (as of 2014). With a fertility rate considerably less than the replacement fertility rate (the number of children that each women would have to have to mimic the population numbers of the last generation), Canada's population is only increasing thanks to our immigration. The major countries that feed our immigration are, in this order, China, India and the Philippines.

Demographics Today

Demographically, Canada is one of the most diverse countries in the world. Here are some of the most commonly used demographic indicators for Canada.


  • Population (2013) - approx 35,160,000
  • Fertility Rate (2011) - 1.61 (average number of children per woman's lifetime)
  • Birth Rate (2010) - 10.28 (number of births per 1,000 people that year)
  • Death Rate (2010) - 7.87 (number of deaths per 1,000 people that year)
  • Infant Mortality (2014) - 4.71 deaths/1,000 live births
  • Population Density (2011) - 3.79 people/square km
  • Ethnic Origin (2011)[1]: Canadian 32.2%, English 19.8%, French 15.5%, Scottish 14.4%, Irish 13.8%, German 9.8%, Italian 4.5%, Chinese 4.5%, North American Indian 4.2%, other 50.9%
  • Languages (2011): English (official) 58.7%, French (official) 22%, Punjabi 1.4%, Italian 1.3%, Spanish 1.3%, German 1.3%, Cantonese 1.2%, Tagalog 1.2%, Arabic 1.1%, other 10.5%


[1] percentages add up to over 100% due to option to select multiple heritages

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This current population pyramid of Canada is representative of a Stage 4 country on the demographic transition model. The population is balanced and birth rates are beginning to decline, becoming more and more like a Stage 5 country. The two large "bulges" at the 50-54 range and the 20-24 range are from the post-World War II baby boom and their children.

FNMI Situation Today

The FNMI (an acronym for First Nations/Métis/Inuit) community in Canada does not directly resemble the rest of the population, instead sharing similarities to third-world countries. With rampant personal problems such as alcoholism and drug use, high suicide rates and mental illness, the FNMI community is also crippled by problems such as poverty, malnutrition, lack of access to clean drinking water, poor health care, poor housing and poor education.


In terms of demographic statistics, the number of Canadians with Indian Status has been increasing over time. The Aboriginal population is also younger than the non-aboriginal Canadian population with lower percentages of seniors compared to the Canadian population. This has been credited to the higher fertility rates and lower life expectancies, qualities that resemble a less developed country.

Canada in 2060

In terms of living conditions and personal luxuries, I expect Canada to continue to be a well developed, economically stable, immigrant friendly country in the year 2060. In terms of population and demographics, I expect Canada to have shifted towards a Stage 5 country, with even lower population increase rates and a higher dependency ratio.

Future Immigration

As this StatCan graph shows, Canadian immigration rates have been steadily increasing over time. I believe this trend will continue despite the development of third-world countries. Even though many of our main immigration sources today will have improved living conditions by 2060, the world population will have greatly increased, leading to overcrowding and worse conditions for many, offsetting this potential setback to immigration.
In terms of Country of Origin for immigrants, I expect the leading countries for immigration to remain on top. I also expect the difference between the top suppliers of immigrants and the other countries to decrease. I believe this because I think that the current countries that supply the most immigrants to Canada (China, India and the Philippines) will improve their living conditions and economic difficulties (current push factors) by 2060, but not enough to drastically reduce immigration rates.
I believe that the Provinces and Territories of Settlement for new immigrants will stay the same as they are today, highlighted in the graph I made on the left. This is because I believe that the tendency of people to move towards urbanized areas will continue.

Future Demographics

By 2060, we will be living in a industrially developed, technologically capable, albeit overpopulated world. Canada will be in a slightly different situation from much of the world as our population issues will be directly related to the ages of our population, rather than the numbers. Due to the aging baby boomers and low fertility rates, our population will have the highest dependent to workforce ratio it has ever experienced.


I expect the fertility rates to become even lower in 2060. This is due to improving health care to reduce child mortality (a factor that raises fertility rates) and the fact that this trend of lowered fertility rates is already in place. Due to these low fertility rates, the overall population will also increase at a slower pace.

HOW AN AGEING POPULATION WILL CHANGE THE WORLD - BBC NEWS
Global Aging

Attached are two videos about the effects of aging on the global population. The first video talks about global perceptions of how to care for the elderly and shows the effects of immigration counteracting the economic strain of dependents. The second shows possible problems caused by global aging and different goals we will need to achieve to keep our economy afloat.

Future FNMI Situation

Unfortunately, I do not predict a large shift in the demographics or well-being of the FNMI community. Over the last hundred years, the FNMI situation in Canada has not been handled well and the community is still in a disadvantaged situation despite previous promises. Due to this slow rate of change, I expect the First Nations community to still be plagued by the same social and economic problems in the future.


In terms of demographics, I expect the number of Status Indians to continue its rapid growth as I do not predict a decline in child mortality or an increase in development. Due to this growth in comparison to the rest of Canada's, I also expect the youth population to rise considerably, meaning that they may be able to begin improving their economic situation.

Conclusion

I predict that Canada will be a similar country in 2060 with current demographic trends continuing. I expect this to lead us into becoming a country with a high dependent ratio and low natural increase rates, forcing us to rely on our strong immigration for economic growth. In terms of the FNMI, I expect them to unfortunately remain in a similar situation, with perhaps higher urbanization rates among them. By then, we may not be one of the most developed and powerful countries in the world, but we will be stable and comfortable.

Bibliography

Works Cited

BBC News. BBC, n.d. Web. 04 Mar. 2015.

"Births and Total Fertility Rate, by Province and Territory (Fertility Rate)." Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. N.p., n.d. Web. 05 Mar. 2015. <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/hlth85b-eng.htm>.

"Canada's Total Population Estimates, 2013." Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. StatCan, n.d. Web. 04 Mar. 2015. <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/130926/dq130926a-eng.htm>.

"Canadians in Context - Population Size and Growth." / Indicators of Well-being in Canada. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015.

Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, n.d. Web. 11 Feb. 2015.

"Country Comparison :: Net Migration Rate." Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015.

"Facts and Figures 2013 – Immigration Overview: Permanent Residents." Government of Canada, Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Communications Branch. Government of Canada, n.d. Web. 04 Mar. 2015. <http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2013/index.asp>.

"National Household Survey - 2011." Statcan. Government of Canada, n.d. Web. 5 Mar. 2015.

Nazareth, Linda. "Canada in 2060: Why Good Policy Now Matters." The Globe and Mail. The Globe and Mail, 09 Nov. 2012. Web. 05 Mar. 2015.