The Lasting Effect of Assola
Kendall Dunn, Christian Hughes, Bakhtawar Yasir
What is Assola?
The rate of infection is 45% (0.45), which means that the infection growth factor is 1.45. This is similar to the spread of HIV in Nigeria, which has the infection rate of 55%. This is because it is also a disease that is spread through contact and infects upon single touch, but it is slightly lower because blood contact is less common. The initial infection is also lower in Assola because the data began with 50 people as opposed to 32,845 people.
Rate of Infection
The equation to determine infected population over time is 50x1.45^x. In this, 50 is the initial infected population, 1.45 is the infection factor, and x is the years after infection.
1 Million would be infected in 26.65 years
10 Million would be infected in 32.85 years
25 Million would be infected in 35.32 years