Canada 2060

What Will Canada Be In the Future?

This Is Not What You Think It Is!

What is Canada going to look like in 2060? Will technology advance? Will we plunge into another World War? All great questions. Unfortunately, we would not be touching any of these subjects! Rather, we will include how the demography of Canada would be in the year 2060. We will talk about the change in population, immigration, First Nation condition and much more!

Canada's Current Status?

Birth Rate

Canada's birth rate has significantly decreased over the past decades. In 1871, the average amount of kids was 7. But now, most people in Canada only have 2-1 children. This means Canada would have to rely on its immigration system to keep its population increasing. As less babies are being born, Canada will have to lower its standard of immigrants.
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Canada's Birth rate has had some peaks and falls but after the great depression passed, many people decided it was best to make a family while they still could. This led to the Baby Boom as being the highest point in Canada's birth rate history. However, shortly after, the birth rate took a steep downfall and kept declining even until today.

Reasons of This Declining Birth Rate

There are many reason why birth rate is declining but the main reason is culture. Unlike in the 1700, the amount of kids a family has does not affect their value. In fact, most times when a family has a large amount of kids, they tend to be look down upon. But in the 1700s, the more kids you had, the more popular you were. Not only that kids were also very efficient laborers. Instead of hiring new people to help with the harsh agriculture, parents decided that kids are much more useful as they were cheaper and must obey every command. Nowadays, kids are more considered as an expense. Another reason why people tend to have more babies than now is because of lack of technology. Diseases were the most lethal thing in the 1800s. Many babies died shortly after they were born and kids would frequently die from simple illnesses such as colds and fevers. This leads to parents having more kids to replace the ones that passed away. The lack of technology also limits the different people can prevent pregnancy. However, nowadays many of these problems have been solved without the need of having more kids. With all this, kids are no longer common among many families.

Death Rate

Death rate in Canada is extremely low. With our advancing medical care, death is lowering every year. While death was a normal thing in the 1800s, things have definitely changed. The change in death rate is almost as drastic as the change in birth rate.

But Why?

Alike to birth rate, death rate as well has decreased throughout the decades because of technology. In the past, illnesses as common as a cold or a fever can kill hundreds of people. With our technology, we can easily stop many of these issues easily. Technology has also helped with children mortality. While in the 1960 when the average of kids dying on birth was 27, that average has lowered to approximately only 3. Another reason can be that now people have a much more general knowledge. Parents would not have know how to help a sick child like they do now. However, the main reason why death rate is low is because birth rate as well is low. Everyone who is being born, would eventually die and since there is a low amount of babies born, it means the total of all those baby growing up and dying would be just as low.

Immigration

Canada has had one of the most successful immigration system in the world. With approximately 250,000 people immigrating to Canada per year, it is needless to say that Canada really does live up to its immigrating standards. There are 3 main types of immigrants Canada accepts:

Refugees

  • are those who are escaping persecution
  • will be allowed into Canada no matter the condition if proven to be a real refugee
  • will be supported with sponsors rather than the government


Economic

  • are those who can contribute immediately to the economy by:
  1. -paying taxes
  2. -joining the work force
  • make up approximately 2/3 of Canada's total population
  • includes skilled workers or entrepreneurs


Families

  • are those who spouses or partners of people living in Canada
  • will usually be able to enter into Canada with conditions
  • this system is very rare among other country

All these options of immigration has made Canada an easy country to immigrate to. This helps Canada with its population as birth rate has been decreasing quite significantly. Canada's immigration is the one who pulls up Canada's population growth to the same level as the other country.

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Population Distribution

Canada has a total population of 35 million people and has a surface area of approximately 10,000,000 Km2. Many would expect that compared with other countries, Canada should be extremely spacious however that is not the case. 61.8% of Canada's population live only in Ontario and Quebec. But why would Canada not use this enormous amount of land?

History Of Canada's Distribution

  • when Europeans first came to, they populated in Areas near the st Lawrence river, starting Ontario and Quebec
  • many first nation died due disease which meant these nomads would no longer repopulate in places the Europeans did settle
  • many attempts were made to populate the west however, this resulted tragically as the west was completely untouched with any sort of civilization other than the Aboriginals
  • First world war sent Canada into depression
  • decreasing birth rate and immigration rate and increasing death rate along with the amount of homelessness
  • a boost in immigration occurred between 1901-1911 with most families traveled west (population level=7.2 million)
  • World War 2 and Great Depression leaves Canada with the lowest birth rate and immigration rate in Canadian history
  • Baby boom takes place after the war increases birth rate all over Canada
  • Immigration increases as the population and economy picks itself up

What Does This Mean?

Most of Canada has been revolved around Ontario and Quebec. Using its locations as the origin of Canada, it is obvious why it is much more populated than the western region. The first attempt to populate the west ended badly, and most of its previous inhabitants, the aboriginals, died when trying to communicate or even trade with the European. Many of Canada's northern region are not suitable for comfortable living because of its difficulty to cultivate and because of its cold temperature. Yet, many times in the past, people have populated the west and is now increasing relatively quickly.

Emigration

Canada has had many peaks and falls in its immigration history. Unfortunately, this includes people leaving Canada, also known as emigrants. Many people have emigrated out of Canada over the past years but there three main point in time when people emigrated most out of Canada.


1896-1913

At first Canada was in fact a terrible place to live. Being next to US worsen things even more as they attracted most of the emigrants. As a new country, Canada faced many economical obstacles, leaving many people jobless. Most of those immigrants could not afford to sustain their families or start the new life they always wanted. Canada was also much harder to cultivate which led to lack of food while US was filled with bountiful harvests.


1914-1945

the beginning of WW 1 decreased Canada's immigration rate almost completely. Even the after affects of the war affected Canada. After the war, economy was nearly dead, when it crashed, the great depression began. This as well lowered Canada's immigration and more people started to leave.


1946+

Finally things are looking up for Canada. The Baby Boom starts, the economy is rising drastically and people are finally immigrating to Canada. emigration is at its lowest and many lives are getting a new chance. Canada's population is finally on a steady rise.

First Nations

First Nation are looked down upon by society and are often considered as savages. When people think of first nations, they think of people wearing feathers and animal skin however this has been outdated for a long time. First nations often live with society, but the majority live on reserves in poverty and in terrible living areas. Most first nations of reserves live in broken down houses which are barely suitable for inhabitants. The amount of funds first nations receive are far too little for the amount of people living in those areas.

How Did It Get This Bad?

First nation condition wasn't always bad. When the Europeans first arrived at Canada, the aboriginals welcomed them and taught them to live in the harsh winter of Canada. They bond between each other were very strong however, when the first nations realized that the European were interrupting their way of life, they sent a request for a piece of land which would not be disturb. The Europeans agreed, but instead of giving them what they promised, they gave them the worst places of habitation. They forced the youth of the first nations to go to Residential school where they severed their connection to their culture completely. They did this by abducting them from their parents and keeping them in a school far from any civilization. They would be forced to speak English and only English, they would be able to wear their traditional clothing, they would be forced to act like a European and learned what they wanted them to learn. Most of these schools were not funded with enough money which led to mal nutrition.

Life on the Reserve - Trailer

Where Does This All Add Up?

We've talked about quite a lot of things about Canada but where does this all add up? What does all this information mean? Let's gather the facts. So far we've explain Canada's:


  • Decreasing birth rate
  • Decreasing death rate
  • successful immigration
  • stages of emigration
  • first nation condition
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This graph was posted above, but now with all the information given we can see that Canada's natural increase is relatively low. But how can we still linger in stage 3 when we have such a low birth rate. This because of another group of Canadians, the first nations. Unlike the other Canadians, first nation give birth more frequently. This helps us significantly with our birth rate. We also use our immigration to pull us up so we are still increasing, yet this is still not as fast as we used to be. To conclude, Canada's current state that we have a decreasing natural increase, but high immigration system stabilizing our population growth so that it tips on the increasing side.

Canada's State in the Year 2060

Now things are getting interesting!

Natural Increase

In the future, I believe that Canada's natural increase would actually be decreasing. Judging by how the natural increase is currently, we see that Canada is nearing stage 4 but in another 45 years, it is obvious that it will decrease even more. By this time it is more likely that the amount of babies being born would be less than the amount of people giving birth. Another reason for this is because most of our births comes from first nations, however, with the current state of first nations, many of these communities would be gone by this time meaning most of our source of population would also be gone. The biggest reason why is because immigrants from other countries often give birth to many babies after they've moved to Canada. However, it is most likely that these cultures might change. For example Pakistanis usually immigrate to Canada to start a family however they would still have the same culture as they used to have before meaning it is normal for them to give birth to 4-5 kids. Yet in the future this can change to a lower amount as even now we see that Pakistan's birth rate has decreased over the decades.

Net Migration

Currently Canada has:


  1. an extremely successful immigration
  2. low emigration rate
  3. decreasing birth rate
  4. decreasing death rate


If these aspect continues as it is right now, Canada will be left with a very high Net Migration rate. This is because of the fact that our natural increase rate would actually be decreasing, meaning Canada would have to rely even more on it immigration rather than its birth rate. This result with Canada lowering its immigration standards which would allow more people into the country however, many of these people would not have the requirements Canada would need. If Canada lowers its standards, it would mean less valuable people would be allow to immigrate into Canada. But to fully see how people would immigrate to Canada, we have to see how many people would emigrate out of other countries.

Russia

  • citizens are leaving to more economically developed countries
  • migration from Russia decreased enormously over the decades
Ireland
  • previously had a decreasing population growth and a high emigration rate
  • within the 2 decades, this has switched to a country with an increasing population growth and a high immigration rate
  • immigration was primarily from the European Union but now comes from almost everywhere
European Union
  • Spain and Italy are receiving the most immigrants
  • Poland, Bulgaria, and the Baltic States are receiving a negative amount of immigrants
USA
  • more than 2 years of significant inflow of immigrants
  • large number of people from educational, economical and ethnic backgrounds immigrate to this country
  • security has increased with its immigration system since the 9/11 plane crash
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All this means that many countries which did not have as good of an immigration system has caught up to Canada. If this continues, even if we lower our standards, we won't receive as much as we would have got nowadays. As more options would pop up in the year 2060, Canada would not have the same pull as it has today. Although we would still get enough immigrants to sustain an increasing population, it would be a bit over barely enough to keep our economy going.

Population Distribution

In the future, it is very possible that most of Canada's immigrants would be located on the western areas. This might happen as Ontario and Quebec are increasing in population extremely fast however,if this continues, it will eventually slow down, while the newer and much more unused lands would still be increasing. Much like how Ontario and Quebec has started before, Alberta and British Columbia are catching up to the eastern areas. This is because it would be much easier to use the untouched land into a living area suitable for people rather than recreating Ontario or Quebec. In the future, most people would be living in the newer areas of Canada because of this reason.

Population Growth

In the year 2060, Canada's population would be growing at a slow rate. Since Canada's birth rate and death rate would even out the natural increase to a low amount. As for the net migration, since we would have a low emigration rate but a mediocre immigration rate, we would be receiving a slow inflow in immigrants. This mean we would have a slow population growth. We would be slowly increasing in size, but it might not be enough to sustain our economy.

First Nations

Judging by their current state we can easily see how things are going to be for the aboriginals. With our information of:


  • bad living areas
  • terrible houses
  • poverty
  • lack of importance from the government
  • bad reputation with society
Using this knowledge, we can predict that by 2060, most aboriginals would be almost completely extinct. Those who live with society would be able to continue their family lines however because of all the issues first nations face, the majority of them would not last much longer. Plus the fact that government is barely helping their conditions, many of these villages or reserves would not be able to survive.

Conclusion

So in conclusion, 45 years in the future Canada would be slowing down in terms of population and net migration. The First Nations would be almost completely extinct and most of our people would be more spread out around Canada! All this means that most of Canada's aspect would slow down by this point.

Bibliography

  1. "Canadians in Context - Geographic Distribution." Indicators of Well-being in Canada. N.p., 13 Mar. 2015. Web. 7 Mar. 2015. <http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=34>.
  2. "Canadians in Context - Population Size and Growth." / Indicators of Well-being in Canada. N.p., 13 Mar. 2015. Web. 10 Mar. 2015. <http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=35>.

  3. "Canadians in Context - Aboriginal Population." / Indicators of Well-being in Canada. N.p., 13 Mar. 2015. Web. 10 Mar. 2015. <http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=36>

  4. "Canadians in Context - Immigration." / Indicators of Well-being in Canada. N.p., 13 Mar. 2015. Web. 9 Mar. 2015. <http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=38>

  5. IMIS, NETZWERK MIGRATION IN EUROPA, and Bpb. "Country Profiles." Focus-Migration:. N.p., n.d. Web. 9 Mar. 2015. <http://focus-migration.hwwi.de/Country-Profiles.1349.0.html?&L=1>.

  6. "Life on the Reserve - Trailer." YouTube. Hi! I`m Graham, 30 July 2010. Web. 8 Mar. 2015. <http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=evw-jXLczlo>

  7. "Pakistan - Birth Rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year." Pakistan - Birth Rate - Historical Data Graphs per Year. N.p., 1 Jan. 2011. Web. 11 Mar. 2015. <http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=pk&v=25>

  8. "Infant Mortality." Infant Mortality Rate. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015. <http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/details/health/infant-mortality-rate.aspx>

  9. Kalbach, Warren E. "Population." The Canadian Encyclopedia. N.p., 3 Apr. 2015. Web. 12 Mar. 2015. <http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/population/>.

  10. Halli, Shiva S., and Anne Marrie Pedersen. "Emigration." The Canadian Encyclopedia. N.p., 16 Dec. 13. Web. 11 Mar. 2015. <http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/emigration/>.

My Life in the Year 2060

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Friday 08:52 PM by user276827408