Canada Immigration

What will Canada look like in 2060?

Introduction

In 2060, Canada will look much different than it is today. Years from now, we will see our demography and immigration slowly alter. Not only this, but the First Nation communities will change at a rapid pace. As we progress through the years, Canada will be extremely different than it is now.

Demography

Now

In 2014, Canada is known to have weak demography indicators. Our country is currently being outweighed by older people than younger people, due to the post-world war baby boomers. According to the CIA World Factbook, Canada's birth rate is 10.29 births per 1000 people, which is extremely low compared to the rest of the world. In addition, the current death rate by CIA World Factbook is 8.31 deaths per 1000 people, which is an fairly high. This is the result of baby boomers, which will cause many obstacles towards Canada's economy in the next few years. This means that Canada's natural increase rate is only 1.98, as Canada is in stage four according to the Demographic Transition model.

Birth Rate

I think that the birth rate will increase, but not drastically. Since Canada is encouraging younger immigrants (18 years old to 35 years old) to settle in Canada, this will cause the birth rate to slightly increase. Although, it will not increase dramatically as it did in the mid-1900s. This is because raising a child can be expensive for the family to provide. If parents decide to have more children, they must think of their child's future, and if they are able to provide their child with a stability (education, standard of living, etc). Therefore the birth rate will not increase drastically, but it will still increase in terms of immigration to Canada.

Death Rate

As baby boomers are already beginning to pass away, I predict that the death rate in 2060 will not be as high as it is now. This means that by 2060, most baby boomers would have already past away. As Canada has a higher population of older people than younger people, it will result in a smaller amount of deaths. This will affect Canada as a whole, as we must work to promote Canadian immigration since we will grow dependent on this for the sake of our economy.

Natural Increase Rate

I think that the natural increase rate will rise in 2060. By my predictions on death rate and birth rate, I presume that the natural increase rate will also increase. Since the death rate will decrease, and the birth rate will increase, this leads to a higher natural increase rate.

Immigration to Canada

Now

Immigration to Canada has had a steady trend throughout the past years. For years, Canada has accepted approximately 250, 000 immigrants every year based upon a point system, and many of these immigrants end up settling in Ontario. This is due to the appealing opportunities offered (eg. jobs available), and the multiculturalism in this area. Moreover, the majority of immigrants that now settle in Canada are mainly from the Philippines, China, and India (having approximately 30, 000 immigrants the past three years).
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Push and Pull Factors

In 2060, I predict that push factors will be:


  • There will be higher taxes, as baby boomers will die and Canada will need to retrieve the lost money for what they provided for medical care and retirement facilities.
  • Canada's climate may not be suitable for many citizens, therefore many will immigrate.
  • Canada has a stable government system, and is also democratic.


In 2060, I predict that pull factors will be:


  • Canada will be economically stable for immigrants, as it is an industrialized country.
  • There will be more job opportunities available, as there is a decreasing birth rate, and baby boomers will die, thus economic immigration to Canada is promoted.
  • Canada has a strong quality of education.
  • Canada is extremely multicultural, therefore our country is appealing to many different types of immigrants.
  • Canada has a free and reliable health care system.

Immigration Rate

I predict that the immigration rate will steadily increase. As push factors begin to emerge from other countries, Canada will be a possible consideration to immigrants. As Canada's pull factors outweigh our push factors, many immigrants will want to settle in Canada. Although, I believe that Canada will attempt to control their population rate by adjusting the point system. Moreover, Canada will be facing many obstacles as baby boomers will die, and all the money contributed towards medical care and retirement facilities will strain our economy. Thus, Canada will heavily depend on immigration, by constantly promoting Canada to possible immigrants.
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Country of Origin

In 2060, my prediction is that the immigration settlements will slowly and progressively alter. Only recently has the Philippines been the top source for immigration to Canada. In the future, I believe that there will be less immigrants from the Philippines, as they begin to rebuild their status after suffering through numerous calamitous natural disasters. I believe that the main source of immigration to Canada will be from India and China, due to their rapidly increasing population. As we consider China and India as the world's most densely populated countries (with the population of one billion each), I predict that the population of India will increase, and China will slightly decrease, and thus, resulting in the many citizens immigrating to Canada.

Country of Origin: Immigrants from India

  • Many citizens in India tend prefer males over females, so therefore they reproduce until a baby boy is born.
  • A large amount of India's population live in poverty, so they have more children that can later support their families to be stable, leading to overpopulation.
  • The quality of education is not as strong as Canada.
  • Females are often discriminated and are not considered equal to males.


Thus, it is in my belief that most immigrants coming to Canada will be from India, due to the harsh living standards, inequality, and the extremely large population.

Country of Origin: Immigrants from China

  • There is a high density, so jobs are very limited.
  • Families cannot have more than one child under some circumstances (families can have a second child if the parents/parent is an only child, or if their firstborn is a girl).
  • Discrimination against women is extremely evident in this country.
  • There is a higher population of men than women, therefore it is hard to find a woman to marry, so therefore, many people immigrate.
  • Since China is extremely developed, and there are many citizens in this country, the air is very polluted.


Due to the strict laws put into place in China, many of their citizens already immigrate to Canada. This is due to the one child policy, where families can only have one child. This has slowed China's population growth, but does not stop the high density in the country. Like India, I predict that many will immigrate to Canada from China because of inequality, an extremely high population, cleanliness, and to be free of the restrictions put into place.

Province of Settlement

I predict that most immigrants will be settling in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Moreover, there will be a higher amount of immigration in other provinces.
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Looking at the graph above, I can predict that Canada is beginning to attract their immigrants to other provinces. During 1986, 51% of immigrants settled in Ontario, and in 2010, Ontario has declined by 14%. In 2060, we will see an major change in where our immigrants begin to settle. Looking at the general trend, I think that immigrants will mostly settle in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. Although, I believe that other provinces (eg. Alberta and Manitoba) will have a higher immigration rate.


This is due to:


  • Ontario and Quebec are the most urbanized and industrialized provinces (have a strong economy and appeal to many immigrants)
  • British Columbia is the gateway for countries in Asia, so it is much cheaper to immigrate here if the immigrant is from Asia.
  • Alberta has a tax advantage (no sales tax) compared to the rest of Canada, so more immigrants will begin to settle in Alberta.
  • Canada wants other provinces to have a stronger economy, so therefore are attracting immigrants by promoting job opportunities.

First Nations

Now

Currently, First Nations population in Canada has began to rapidly increase. In accordance to the National Household Survey, the First Nation Peoples population has grown by approximately 22%. Although, Non-status Indians are currently dealing with many obstacles , including that they must pay taxes as they are not considered Indian under registration. Moreover, First Nations are not seeing significant changes on what was promised during the Indian Act. They are receiving under-funding for houses and medical care and funding for Aboriginals are 30% less than Canadian children.

Population of First Nations

In the 1930s, the First Nations population was rapidly deteriorating due to residential schooling. The objective of residential schools was to assimilate Aboriginal children into the Canadian customs. Approximately 150, 000 First Nation, Inuit, and Métis children were kidnapped from their communities without consent and placed into residential schools. In an attempt to convert these Aboriginal children, many were abused and assaulted.


In my opinion, I believe that the First Nations' future will intensely change. Recently, the First Nation population soared as they began to have more children to revive their deteriorating population. Thus, there is a larger amount of younger First Nations as opposed to the older. In 2060, I predict that there will be a high population increase of First Nations, since children in the 0-14 age group are the largest age group of First Nations (making up 28% of their population). As a result, these First Nations will produce more children.

Obstacles of First Nations

In the future, I predict that the First Nations will encounter many obstacles where they are forced to stay resilient. At this moment, a large percentage of the First Nation youth are committing suicide.


These factors may include:


  • Discrimination against the First Nations.
  • Feeling out of place and self-conscious about their culture, as some have adapted to the Canadian culture.
  • Not understanding how to accept themselves.


In 2060, I believe that these factors will affect the First Nations. I believe that Canadians will learn the hardships of the First Nations and will therefore evolve into a more respecting and accepting nation. Although, I think that the First Nations will feel out of place due to their culture, and will not understand how to accept themselves as they are. Thus, many First Nations will have to be resilient and defeat this obstacle.


Also, I think that the First Nations must also attempt to revive their culture in a stronger technique. . Even though the First Nation population is on the rise, about one-half of the First Nation youth are living in foster care. This means that the child is adapting to the Canadian culture, and therefore losing their own culture in the meantime.

Conclusion

cindy nguyen

Canada in 2060 by cindy nguyen
In 2060, I predict that Canada will change in a blink of an eye. We will see the progression throughout the years, and explore the demography and immigration as we age. The First Nation community will slowly improve. I believe that Canada as we know it, will seem much different in 2060.

References

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News, CBC. “Canada's seniors population to jump, workforce decline by 2063” CBCnews. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-s-seniors-population-to-jump-workforce-decline-by-2063-1.2770359.


“Canada – Immigration Intake, 1860 to 2013” Immigration Watch Canada. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/.


“Facts and Figures: Canadian Birth Rates” University of Ottawa. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www.med.uottawa.ca/sim/data/Birth_Rates_e.htm.


News, CBC. “A history of residential schools in Canada” CBCnews. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/a-history-of-residential-schools-in-canada-1.702280.


Central Intelligence Agency. “Canada” World Factbook. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ca.html.


Ratna Omidvar, Sandra Lopes. Policy Options. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://policyoptions.irpp.org/issues/policy-challenges-for-2020/canadas-future-success-closely-linked-to-a-successful-immigration-program/.


“2006 Census: Aboriginal Peoples in Canada in 2006: Inuit, Métis and First Nations, 2006 Census: First Nations people” Statistics Canada. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-558/p15-eng.cfm.


“Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis and Inuit” Statistics Canada. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-011-x/99-011-x2011001-eng.cfm#a3.


“Immigration” Canadian Encyclopedia. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/immigration/.


“Facts and figures 2013 – Immigration overview: Permanent residents” Government of Canada. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2013/permanent/10.asp.