Canada 2060

Demographics and Aboriginals

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Introduction

What will Canada look like when we are 44/45 years older. We will get older, humanity will progress and technologies will develop. The global demography and economy will change and host new scenarios for humanity.In this flyer, I will not discuss the development of teleportation or new emerging viral cat videos; I am sorry, but I will be discussing these three main topics



  1. Demographics of Canada with comparisons between now and then.
  2. Immigration rates and its factors
  3. First Nation situations

Canadian Demographics

Current Situation

  • Canada is currently in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model

  • Total Population: 33,476,688 (2011)

This is how the population is divided:

22,924,283: 68.5% of the population falls into the working age (15-64) population

5,607,345: 16.7% of the population falls into the child (14 and under) population

4,950,060: 14.8% of the population falls into the senior (65 and over) population



  • Population Rates

Natural Increase: 3.9/1000

Birth Rate: 11.4/1000

Death Rate: 7.5/1000

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Situation in 2060

Medium Growth Scenario


Canada will still be in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transitional Model



Total Population: Approximately 52.6 million

This is how the population would be divided:

31,000,000: 58.9% of the population will fall into the working age(15-64) population

8,200,000: 15.6% of the population will fall into the child (14 and under) population

13,400,000: 25.5% of the population will fall into the senior (65 and over)


Population Rates

Natural Increase: 0.7/1000

Birth Rate: 10/1000

Death Rate: 9.3/1000

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Canada in 2060 will have a large demographic change

  • The Canadian Adult Population will be much different as the last of the baby boomers who were born in 1965 will now be 95 years old, and with most of these people gone, the adult population pyramids will change to the new adult populations. This is the effects of an aging population
  • The death rate will continue to decrease as new technologies will emerge and advancements in health care and better medicine. On the Demographic Transitional Model, advancements in medical care begin to develop and beginning on Stage 2; the death rate continues to drop the stages.
To think of what we have accomplished in the fields of medicine and science in the l last 40 years, think about what we can achieve in the next 40...
  • The birth rate however; can differ throughout. Factors can largely affect the numbers, these include
  1. The Economy. People will have less children if they are in bad economic times. This was shown in the the 1930's when the Great Depression caused a drop drastic drop in births, but in the 50's and 60's; the post-war boom was a period of very high birth rates and gave birth to the baby boomers. If the oil prices rise high again (hopefully) we could have a period of good economic times and we could experience a slightly higher birth rate
  2. Education: The longer people stay in school, the less children they will have. So the more advanced we get, the more educated people we need, therefore less births
  3. Ideologies can influence how many children people would want. Lifestyle choices, like how much easier it would be to have 2 children instead of 4, or having a parent at work and another to stay home with a few children rather than more children and both parents at work. It varies according to your ideology.
  • According to Statistics Canada, the natural increase would not become negative for the at 2060, but for some period of time after the 2020's, a slight natural decrease would occur and then return to a very slight natural increase of .07/1000 by 2060
  • The population however, would still continue to grow thanks to the net migration rate
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Immigration and Factors

In 2015, Canada excepted between 260,000-285,000 new permanent residents.

Economic Total: 65.50%

Family Total: 23.9%

Humanitarian Total: 10.6%


  • What is an Economic Immigrant?

An economic immigrant is an immigrant who can benefit or contribute to Canada's Economy by starting or investing in a business, or being a skilled worker.


  • What is a Family Immigrant?
A family immigrant is an immigrant who is being sponsored by a family member who is currently living in the country of residence which the immigrant wants to settle in.


  • What is a Humanitarian Immigrant?

A Humanitarian Immigrant is a immigrant who receives some sort of protection, these can be refugees or people receiving temporary protection


The Following Chart is of last year (2015)

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  • Canada will theoretically continue to take in immigrants even at 2060.
  • With the current rate of immigration (Around 270K), we will have a population of about 53 million, if we continue to take in a similar amount for the next 45 years, it means that Canada would've acepted a staggering 12 million by 2060 which is amazing.
  • People think that Canada doesn't have many people compared to its size, which is true, because we are at 4 people/Km squared (world average 50/km² , but what they don't realize is that only 10% of Canada is habitable, so...

10% of 9,985,000km² = 985,000km²

36,000,000/ 985,000km² = 37/km²

So technically, Canada is actually quite dense compared to the US, with 35/km² .

That means that in 2060; the population density will be (52,600,000/985,000km²) 53/km², so the entire population of Canada would fit into the land mass of Egypt ,which isn't very good, so the ability to take in that great amount of immigrants must decrease by then otherwise the overall quality of life will be decreased due to overpopulation in the long-term.

Push Factors

  • Canada is a world leader in the many of the fields such as science, medicine etc. ;this means that if we keep applying that effort in the future, we will retain that position in 2060
  • The growing field of medicine will promote better health care and medical technologies which are sought after
  • Canada is a very resource-rich country and the government is making well use of this by attracting investors and economic immigrants; this means that in 45 years, these businesses will grow and need more workers, these job openings will be very valuable in an even more crowded world, this means that Canada would have a generally positive economy which is wanted by everyone.

Pull Factors

  • Overpopulation; the world will have 8.5 billion people, and with overpopulation come a whole set of issues:
  • Lack of Jobs
  • Drop in Quality of Life
  • Rise in Prices

  • Conflicts (refugees), Unfortunately, our world is not perfect, global conflict is a powder keg, and all it needs is a spark. Conflicts are in Human Nature, competition against others. Unfortunately, it is not the people who start the conflicts ,but the innocent civilians that get hurt and displaced causing waves of refugees.. Syria is a prime example of this.
  • Other Humanitarian Crises-es,mainly natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts, hurricanes etc. ,these displace many people causing waves of refugees.

The Refugee Situation

Canada has vowed to continue bring in more refugees, the first wave of refugees had 25,000 refugees, mostly Syrians fleeing from their war-torn home. This means that there will be many Syrian families that have family still back home. This means that in the future, these new citizens will want to bring their families with here causing an increase in family immigrants

Aboriginal Situation

Aboriginal Communities Today

Aboriginal Communities communities divide into 3 main group
Aboriginal Peoples have a demography unlike that of Canada, they have a demography of a developing country, with the bar bigger at the bottom and becoming smaller every stage upwards.
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Now compare this aboriginal population pyramid with that of Haiti
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Government Change

The previous Conservative Government did not focus much on the rights of aboriginal people, but now, the newly elected Liberal Government who is actively working with Aboriginal Peoples' Commission has promised us 10 policies that were presented at the 2014 Biennial Convention in Montreal in February, these are word to word:



  1. Acknowledging the Past in Order to Move Forward: A Resolution to Officially Reject The 1969 White Paper (Priority)
  2. A Resolution for a New Approach to Urban Indigenous Policy
  3. Equal Opportunity: A Resolution for Equal Indigenous Access to Education, Funding for Education, and Extra-Curricular Activities
  4. A Resolution for Assisting Post-Secondary and Secondary Indigenous Students with Child Care
  5. A Resolution for Continued Support of Intergenerational Healing of the Canadian/Indigenous Relationships
  6. A Resolution for Further Inclusion to the Liberal Party of Canada: Recognizing the Concept of Two-Spiritedness
  7. A Resolution to Negotiate and Implement a Joint-Understanding of Consultation between the Canadian state and Indigenous Nations
  8. A Resolution to Denounce Spying on Indigenous Peoples/Organizations
  9. Implementing the Kelowna Accord
  10. Drinking Water and Sanitation in First Nations Communities

The White Paper Act- What is It?

The White Paper Act was issued by Pierre Trudeau (father of Justin Trudeau) in 1969 and the primary objective of this act was to dismantle the Indian Act which would mean that 7 main things would be slashed



  1. Eliminate Indian status
  2. Dissolve the Department of Indian Affairs within five years
  3. Abolish the Indian Act
  4. Convert reserve land to private property that can be sold by the band or its members
  5. Transfer responsibility for Indian affairs from the federal government to the province and integrate these services into those provided to other Canadian citizens
  6. Provide funding for economic development
  7. Appoint a commissioner to address outstanding land claims and gradually terminate existing treaties

The purpose of this was that the Government thought that it was unfair that only the aboriginals had these things but what they didn't realize was that nobody would hire them because they were aboriginals and the Indian Act was one of their few sources of income.

Rose Charlie, an aboriginal leader, is discussing the white paper act

Future of Aboriginals

Aboriginals have a much higher natural increase than the rest of Canada and their populations would greatly increase by 2060. This means that they will have more influence as they could become a major part of the population.

If the government are able to bring these 10 policies into place, we could see a great leap forward for aboriginal communities throughout Canada. Non-Aboriginal Canadians will be better educated on this subject and will not repeat the mistakes of their predecessors. We could see Aboriginals in very high governmental positions

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My Comparison Audio Clip

73rdNorthernMarksman !

Canada 2060 by 73rdNorthernMarksman !

Conclusion

Canada's progression into the second part of the century will depend on will depend on these three very important subject; Demographics of Canada, Immigration, and Aboriginals, these things will hypothesize the future of Canada.

The future is great and to keep that future there we need to work hard and be ideal citizens to achieve this future and ensure that it stays great for future generations to have an even better lives.


I believe the future of Canada holds great promise...

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Bibliography

“Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories”, Statistics Canada, Government of Canada, 2015/11/27, web, 10/3/16, <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/2010001/aftertoc-aprestdm1-eng.htm>


“The Canadian Population in 2011: Population Counts and Growth”, Statistics Canada, Government of Canada, 2015-12-21, web, 10/3/16, <https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-310-x/98-310-x2011001-eng.cfm>


“Section 3: Analysis of the results of the long-term projections”, Statistics Canada, Government of Canada, 2015-11-27, web, 10/3/16, <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/2010001/part-partie3-eng.htm>


“The Canadian Population in 2011: Age and Sex”, Statistics Canada, Government of Canada, 2015-12-21, web, 10/3/16, <https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-311-x/98-311-x2011001-eng.cfm>


https://apc-cpa.liberal.ca/policy/


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2014001-eng.htm


https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-012-x/99-012-x2011003_3-eng.cfm


http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-x/2012000/part-partie1-eng.htm