Canada in 2050

By Tu Tran

Introduction

Chances are, that if you found this flyer, then you already know what it is about. Regardless, I will tell you that the purpose of this flyer is to detail Canada, its current population and immigration state, the state of the First Nations, and the future of its population in forty years.

Current Immigration

Currently, immigration is one of the largest focuses of the Canadian Government, mostly in part to Canada's negative growth rate, which will be detailed in the Demography section.


Canada uses immigration as its primary source of population growth, with the most common countries that Canada receives immigrants from being China, India, the Philippines, Pakistan, and the United States.


China, India, and the Philippines each making up about 12% of immigrants that Canada receives. Combined with the immigrants received from the United States and Pakistan, this accounts for nearly half of all immigrants in Canada.


Currently, there are three major classes of immigrants: Family Immigrants, Economic Immigrants, and Refugees:


  • Family Immigrants are sponsored by their family currently living in Canada, and are permitted to enter Canada because they have family that permanently resides in Canada.
  • Economic Immigrants are immigrants that are allowed to enter Canada with the goal of getting a job, allowing them to contribute to Canada's economy.
  • Refugees are immigrants allowed to enter Canada in order to escape war or political strife in their old country.

Future Of Immigration

For the future, I believe that Canada will receive more and more immigrants from China and India, due to the fact that their populations are very large. Looking at the past, China's immigration to Canada was still very large even despite the head tax associated with them from 1885-1923. With compensations and apologies for the head tax in recent times, it is possible that Chinese immigration will increase, as one of the largest intervening obstacles was put out of practice.


With the ongoing war and strife in the Middle East, it is very possible that the peaceful Canada will receive more refugees from those countries, evidenced by countries like Pakistan already being within the top 5 countries of immigration to Canada. As the second image below shows, a large portion of Canada's immigrants come from the Middle East, a number which will only grow if the conflict there continues.

First Nations Current Situation

The Aboriginal's situation is not currently good, although it is substantially better than in the past.


Aboriginals currently struggle with small, limited reserves, lack of shelter, food, health care, and money, which, combined with a relative lack of relief programs, results in a very difficult existence.


In 1995, an estimated 55% of all aboriginals were in poverty, while in 2001, this was down to 52%. In some provinces, aboriginals can account for up to 24% of the poor. This data shows that things are getting better, albeit slowly. Newer programs like British Columbia's Seabird Sustainable Community Program are trying to eliminate poverty altogether, aboriginals included.


Perhaps due to a lack of natural resistance, aboriginals are considerably more likely to have some kind of illness compared to a non-aboriginal, such as being ten times more likely to have tuberculosis. Health care is showing up more and more for natives, such as a 1997 program that provided health care for natives specifically. More recent innovations are beginning to incorporate the spiritual practices of the aboriginals.


Aboriginals were stated to be five to six times more likely to be unemployed than non-aboriginals. In 2008, only 10% of aboriginals were unemployed, showing a substantial decrease. In 1995, 71% of employers had issues with hiring aboriginals, most commonly due to a lack of a method of communication.


This unfortunately goes hand in hand with the fact that roughly only a third of aboriginals have completed high school. However, when comparing results of how many aboriginals had an education, one can see that there is a substantial increase from 1964 to 1991, with 800 and 150000 aboriginals being recorded to have education, respectively.

Future Situation of the First Nations

With all this data showing that things are getting better for aboriginals, I believe it is safe to assume that the situation for the aboriginals will continue to get better. However, progress will happen slowly, as shown how in the gap between 1995 and 2001, the rate of poverty in aboriginals went down from 55% to 52%, roughly at a rate of 0.5% per year.


This could possibly mean that by 2050, poverty could be as low as 10% among aboriginals if this rate is held, although it is unlikely. Employment and education for aboriginals is increasing very quickly, with more and more aboriginals receiving education off of the reserves.


All in all, the aboriginal's situation will be the best it's been yet in 2050, possibly even on par with the rates of the non-aboriginals. However, the employment status of the aboriginals is linked to the status of the non-aboriginals, meaning that if the economy were to ever experience an unlikely crash, their unemployment rates would increase dramatically as well, as shown in the graph showing the employment rates in Canada during the 2009 recession.

Current Demography

As stated in the immigration section, Canada is currently experiencing a situation of negative growth, a comparatively rare and very unfavorable situation to be in.


As the population pyramid below shows, less and less children are being born, meaning that as the older people and baby boomers age, there will be less people to take their places. This is a bad sign, as it means that, without intervention, Canada will not have enough people to balance out the number of deaths the country is experiencing.


This is a major reason that Canada is focusing on immigration, to ensure that the population will remain stable, without too many deaths and too little births resulting in a lower population. The largest portion of people in Canada are within the 40-50 age range, classified as baby boomers, born in the era following World War II.

Future Demography

As no country has made it past this stage of population growth, referred to as the fifth stage, it is rather difficult to estimate what will happen. In the population pyramid above, there are rather sharp decreases in population when comparing the 45-50, 20-30, and 0-14 age ranges.


This leads me to believe that the population pyramid will eventually begin to slant inwards, and as the baby boomers age and die (presumably around 2030 based on Canada's life expectancy), the pyramid will become noticeably thinner as a whole, representing a situation of negative growth as the number of deaths will outnumber the number of births.


By that point, Canada will have to completely rely on immigration in order to increase its population.


In relation to that, as space begins to run out in the Greater Toronto Area, people will be forced to begin spreading out to other locations in Canada. As such, it is possible that by then, Ontario and Quebec will no longer hold over half of Canada's population, as people begin moving to other provinces such as British Columbia, which currently holds roughly 13% of Canada's population, compared to Quebec's 22% and Ontario's 38%.


Below are other organization's estimates on how Canada's population pyramid will appear in 2050, and a video explaining.

Video

The video below explains that our population is increasing, getting more expensive to live and maintain yourself and/or family. It also states that most services are being directed towards the elderly, representing that they make up a significant portion of our population, and if the elderly and middle aged make up a large part of our population, once they're gone, the population will likely decrease due to a lack of births.

Conclusion

As a whole, I believe that Canada's population has ceased it's growth, and will increase very little within the next few years. Immigration will continue to be a major focus, since it is currently our most major source of population growth. Meanwhile, Aboriginals will have a better situation than ever within the next 50 years.


Canada's population development is soon coming to a close.

Bibliography & Credits

"Immigration Overview: Permanent and Temporary Residents." Government Of Canada. The Government Of Canada, n.d. Web. 14 March 2014.


"Aboriginal Peoples." Statistics Canada. The Government Of Canada, n.d. Web. 14 March 2014.


"Population by Provinces and Territories." InfoPlease. Pearson Education, n.d. Web. 14 March 2014.


Population Pyramids belong to PopulationPyramid.net and the US Census Bureau.


Pie Chart created with Meta-Chart.com.