What Will Canada Look Like in 2060?
Written by Rayan Butt
First Things First...
- The number of people dying and being born (birth rate and death rate)
- How the number of immigrants might be different
- The change in terms of demography
- Our First Nations communities
Canada's Demography in 2015:
Canada's fertility rate in 2015 is 1.59 births per woman. This has extremely changed from 1970 where the fertility rate at that time was 2.26 births. This means that individual women have been having lesser babies compared to the previous years.
POPULATION GROWTH RATE TREND:
Canada's population, on average grows by 0.76% each year so in 2060, the population of Canada from 2015 will have grown by 34.2%. Currently, Canada's population is around 35 750 000 and 32.4% of that is 12 226 500. Adding together the current 35 750 000 with the estimated 12 226 500 would give us the approximate population of Canada in 2060 that is around 48 million.
NATURAL INCREASE RATE TREND:As of 2015, the current birth rate of Canada is 10.29 and the death rate is 8.31 which means that the natural increase rate would be 1.98.
Linked below is a video that predicts and explains what will happen to certain countries such as Canada in 2050 using a number of population pyramids and below that is a population pyramid of Canada in 2050.
CANADA's demography IN 2060:
The population of Canada will continue to increase during these next 45 years because of the previously mentioned trends above, reaching close to around 48 million (47 976 500, to have a more precise estimate) in 2060.
BIRTH, DEATH AND NATURAL INCREASE RATE:
My personal prediction about the birth rate in 2060 would be 14, taking into consideration of the fact that Canada would have a larger population by then. The same would apply to my death rate prediction would be about 12 and so, the natural increase would be 2.0
CANADIAN IMMIGRATION IN 2015:
Canada takes around 265 000 immigrants as of current, which adds about 1% to Canada's current population at that time. The net migration rate from 2014 is 5.66.
CANADIAN IMMIGRATION IN 2060:
The graph below shows projected predictions from 2006 on the immigration and the natural increase rate from 1851-2061.
Table: Migration Rate and Natural Increase Rate Predictions from 1851-2061
The Canadian Aboriginal general population presently is over 1 400 000 or 4% of the entire country's population. The Metis population is roughly 420 000 (30%), the Inuit population is roughly 60 000 (5%), the other First Nations are 12 000 (1%), 700 000 are Registered Indians (50%) and 215 000 are Non-registered (15.3%). Canada's First Nations population increases by around 20% each year, as evident from their 20.1% increase from 2006 to 2011.
Aboriginal women tend to have 2.6 children in their life which is large compared to the average Canadian rate of 1.8. This means that the Aboriginal population is increasing quicker than the Canadian.
The infant mortality rate is also a factor as to why the Aboriginal community has a lot of children. The Aboriginal infant mortality rate is around 20% higher than other communities in Canada. So almost 19 (18.9) Aboriginal babies die per 1000 people and because of this high infant mortality rate, the Aboriginal families have more children so there can be a better chance of having some survive.
Taking all of the above facts into consideration, I predict that the Aboriginal population will be around 5 600 000 by 2060, quadrupling in size.