Canada in 2060

By: Kevin Patel

Intro:

Will the future change the population trends? Will more immigrants come to Canada? What about the birth and death rate, as well the First Nations and their way of living.No one really knows what the future holds, however that doesn't mean we can't predict what it might look and feel like. By gathering all this information I will discuss what's in store for Canada in the following years.


Topics:

  1. Immigration
  2. Demography
  3. First Nations

Immigration

By the year 2060 Canada's immigration will change dramatically. Currently Canada is receiving abut 250,000 immigrants and that is okay for now,however in the coming years Canada will need to bring in more immigrants to keep the economy sustainable.


  1. Economic immigrants
  2. Family class
  3. Refugees


As listed above i have stated the three types of immigrants that are highly important to Canada. These types of immigrants contribute to the many reasons why in the year 2060 Canada will need to bring in more immigrants. First off, Canada will and should bring in more immigrants as the population will not be as young but actually ageing, this will cause more people to be out of jobs and not allow company's and businesses to produce anything. Therefore by bringing in economic immigrants who are skilled workers they can make those immigrants work and this is beneficial as they have vast knowledge of marketing and manufacturing. Thus, causing more citizens to receive what they need and in turn improve the overall economy. Although Canada only really needs skilled workers, without the family class immigrants the economic immigrants will have barely any family in Canada and might think about residing to another country which will wreck everything this country has already worked for. Finally all the refugees, who don't contribute to any other immigrants but make Canada a country that shows it is open to those in need. According to The Conference Board of Canada ''Canada sees it as a moral obligation to offer protection to those in need, viewing refugee resettlement as an integral part of its responsibilities within the international community''. This further affects Canada as more people will come to Canada who may not be skilled workers but still have a lot to offer.
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Push and Pull factors

  1. Push factors ( overpopulation, war, and natural disasters)
  2. Pull factors ( job opportunities, health care, constitutional rights, and education)



As of now Canada's push factors are overpopulation,war and natural which are severe causes for someone to emigrate out of the country.However, in the year 2060 this could possibly change as due to the natural increase being low more people will die or be old and can't have kids and thus, cause the population to decrease. Next, are pull factors which include job opportunities,health care, political rights, and education. By looking at Canada and these pull factors i conquer that it will most likely stay the same or change slightly.


With Canada being in stage 4 of the demographic transition model and slowly making its way into stage 5, the population is decreasing and they must bring in immigrants from around the world. But have you ever wondered where they came from and where would they stay. Countries like India and China will be the one's who deliver the majority of immigrants. This is because the population in both countries is becoming overpopulated and thus, wont be able to handle the population. So with Canada's dependency load becoming high there will be more job opportunities for them to have and they don't have to worry about coming to a country that's already overpopulated.


At this point many people are settling in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, but with many people settling there already they will have to find a place in Canada that won't become overpopulated. Therefore they will move to places such as Nunavut and Yukon which is the best choice for them and their families as it opens them to a wide range of opportunities and resources.

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Demography

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In the year 2060, it may seem that the immigration will change the most, but it you examine this subject clearly, you will notice that the demographics of Canada will change the most. Right now Canada is in stage 4 of the demographic transition model (DTM), however it is slowly making its way into stage 5 and that is something to worry about. Stage 4 of the DTM means the birth rate is low, death rate is low, high dependency ratio, and low expectancy rate. Stage 5 of the DTM means very low birth rate, and low death rate. With this in mind, Canada will suffer a great loss because if the birth rate and death rate is low right now and only gets worse, think about how that will affect Canada and its economy. This may seem unclear right now for most people, like why will the death and birth rate become lower and what about the natural increase rate, so lets break it down part by part.


Death Rate

The death rate will either become lower or stay constant, because of the health care, technology and resources. Right now Canada's birth rate is low because we are gaining more knowledge on how to improve people's health and medication. This means less people will die, and the women could produce babies. Furthermore once the future comes, the health care will be even better because scientists and other people will grasp a better hold of how to improve health and medication. Also the technology we have now a days is adequate, but once the future comes the technology will be far more advanced saving us time and energy. This all may sound good, but with a low death rate the population will start to age and less people will work thus causing the businesses to fail. As well with those who work, they will have to support their families a lot which will put a lot of strain on them.


Birth Rate

The birth rate will become very low because of family planning, high dependency load, and later marriages. Currently the birth rate is also low because with many people working they have no time to support their families which will cause people to not want children. In the next 44 years when the dependency load is high many people who work will have even less time for families and then for women it will be nearly impossible to have children. Additionally, with less people being born their will be a great number of old people who don't have anyone to aid them and cause the death rate to be higher. Which means there won't be many old people and the dependency load will lower.


Natural Increase Rate

Natural increase rate will start to decline in 2060. This is due to the birth rate being extremely low when we are in stage 5. As it stands right now the natural increase is leveled and that's okay, but when it comes to the year 2060 we will have a great problem. With more people dying then being born, our population will decline severely and there will even less people in the workforce. This means that the population growth rate will turn out low, but can be stabilized by bringing in immigrants which the government is already working on.

2015:

Birth rate: 10.29/1000

Death rate: 8.31/1000

Population growth rate: 0.76%

Life expectancy: 81.57 years

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A Statistics Canada Minute - Regional Demography

First Nations

First Nations are very important in Canada's history, and to this day. First Nations also known as "indians" are a group of people who refer to indigenous people in Canada other than the Metis and the Inuit that live on reserves. Now, you may be wondering why First Nations are relevant to Canada and how they might change in 2060, so that's just what i'll tell you. Currently, First Nations are struggling to maintain a steady life, as they don't get enough food,money,clothes and education. However, due to the "Indian act" established in 1876, many First Nations from that point are getting a better life, but the act is slowly becoming less common during the 21st century and many First Nations don't have any rights. This is why the First Nations community is declining because many indians can't survive long. Moreover, the population could decline more and there will be barely any First Nations left. None the less, in the future this issue can be resolved. If the government sees that the population is slowly dieing out, they will start to make changes to this problem and thus cause the First Nations population to rise. Therefore they will have better money for their families, better health and better education. Which in turn, makes Canada a better place for everyone.

Conclusion

The future will be a scary thing. You never know what could happen to Canada, with its immigration, demography and First Nations. Sure, the population is ageing and declining, and Canada will have to bring in more immigrants to keep the economy stable, as well the government will have to reexamine the First Nations. But, maybe immigrants might go to another country, maybe Canada will stay in stage 4 of the demographic transition model, and maybe First Nations communities won't change at all. However all this may not happen just by prediction. Never the less by regarding the past and present trends we can think of possibilities for the future of Canada in 2060!

Kevin Patel

Canada in 2060 by Kevin Patel

Bibliography

Information Sites:

Gadacz, Rene R. "First Nations." The Canadian Encyclopedia. Ed. Zach Parrott. Anthony Wilson-Smith, 02 June 2006. Web. 19 Mar. 2016. <http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/first-nations/>


Population and Demography." Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. Government, 21 Mar. 2016. Web. 18 Mar. 2016. <http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/subject-sujet/theme-theme.action?pid=3867&lang=eng&more=0>.


Hodgson, Glen. "Slow-Motion Demographic Tsunami about to Hit Canada's Economy." Slow-Motion Demographic Tsunami about to Hit Canada's Economy. The Conference Board of Canada, 10 July 2105. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <http://www.conferenceboard.ca/economics/hot_eco_topics/default/12-07-10/slow-motion_demographic_tsunami_about_to_hit_canada_s_economy.aspx>


"Immigration to Canada." Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation, 17 Mar. 2016. Web. 18 Mar. 2016. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Canada>.


Images:

"Notice – Supplementary Information to the 2014 Immigration Levels Plan."Government of Canada, Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Communications Branch. Government, 1 Nov. 2013. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2013-11-01.asp>.


"Common Menu Bar Links." Canadian Demographics at a Glance: Figure 17 Number of Immigrants and Immigration Rate in Canada, 1900 to 2006. N.p., 25 Jan. 2008. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-003-x/2007001/figures/4129865-eng.htm>.


"Canada Age Structure." - Demographics. CIA World Factbook, 30 June 2015. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <http://www.indexmundi.com/canada/age_structure.html>.


Strategic Research and Analysis Directorate. "First Nation and Inuit Community Well-Being : Describing Historical Trends (1981-2006)."Government of Canada; Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada; Communications Branch. Government, Apr. 2010. Web. 22 Mar. 2016. <http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1100100016600/1100100016641>.


Video:

"A Statistics Canada Minute - Regional Demography." Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. Government, 27 Jan. 2016. Web. 18 Mar. 2016. <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/sc/video/demography>.


Sound Cloud (audio):

"Canada in 2060." SoundCloud. Kevin Patel, 20 Mar. 2016. Web. 22 Mar. 2016. <https://soundcloud.com/user-897712479/sounds-from-sunday-night>.