# Analyzing the Solution

### Is it reasonable?

## Example

Students learn about Hot Potato,

a lottery game that was played in Wisconsin,

which cost a dollar to play and had payoff

probabilities as shown in the table below.

Students then experiment with different ways

to model the game. First they estimate how

many people out of 10 win each payoff, how

many out of 100, how many out of 1000, and

so on. Then they model the problem with a

probability distribution. They discover that a key

payoff value is missing from the probability table:

the expected payoff per game. Students then

calculate the missing payoff value and learn that

the expected payoff per game is about $0.55.

They evaluate the impact of this payoff value

from the point of view of the individual player as

well as the Wisconsin Lottery Commission.