Unemployment as a Lagging Indicator
Four Part Graded Discussion on Unemployment
Graded Discussion on Unemployment as a Lagging Indicator
This is a four part graded discussion.
- Part I: Watch a video on the impact of Covid-19 on unemployment - Why is this new reality not part of Unemployment Official Data yet?
- Part II: Unemployment Over the Years - Note changes and timing of events
- Part III: Based on the information on Part I make a prediction on unemployment rate from May - August 2020 and suggest best fiscal policy to be undertaken
- Part IV: Respond to at least two classmates
More detailed information about each part is below
Please, organize your post in headings and subheadings for a better flow of the material
- Apply economic theory and reasoning to analyze current economic situation and make a prediction for the future
Part I: Watch the Video Above _ Is the reality depicted in this Video included in the Official Unemployment Data?
As we all are witnessing the devastation caused by Covid 19 in both human life and the economy, it is a good time to reinforce the idea of unemployment as a lagging indicator.
Watching this video, please comment on why this new reality is not captured in the official unemployment data? Please, visit the website below to find information on the most current data on unemployment rate in the United States.
Part II: Unemploymnet Over a Time Period
Please, play the interactive graph below and take notes as the graph plays over a time period. What do you notice? At what time did the Great Recession start and end? Did this time period coincide with the job gains/losses depicted in the graph. Also, please see more current data by clicking in Geography of Jobs link. What other events can you depict from this graph?
Job Gains/Losses Most Current Period Data
Part III: Provide a Prognosis for Unemployment Rate in the Future
Based on the information above, what is your prediction for unemployment rate for the month of May, June, July and August? Please, support your prediction with current data and articles.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics website can be a great resource while you make your predictions. Remember that unemployment is measure monthly, and that on the yesterday, Friday May 8th the unemployment rate reported for the month of April spiked at 14.7 % (end this captured only mid April experiences)
Part IV: Respond to Two Classmates
After posting your response, please respond to two classmates, and provide constructive feedback to their post. Try to select two classmates that have different prediction than yours.
Do you agree with their predictions, why yes or why not? Did their assessment of the economy change your viewpoint and prognosis about the future? Is the fiscal policy they are proposing aligned with the new reality? What are some of your thoughts?
Please, try to limit your response to no more than 300 words per response.