Will he make it to the White House?
How is Jeb expected to do in Iowa and NH?
- Jeb is doing okay in New Hampshire. In both the Huffingtonpost and realclearpolitics posts, Bush has about 8% of the vote. New Hampshire does not look like it will be a huge success for Bush, but it will most likely be enough to keep him competitive for the second and third place spot in the republican race.
- Sources: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-republican-primary and http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html
- Jeb is doing very poorly in Iowa. According to the realclearpolitics and 270towin polls, Jeb is only attracting 3.7% of the vote. Iowa will definitely not be a state that Jeb will be touting his primary result record in.
- Sources: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html and http://www.270towin.com/2016-republican-nomination/iowa-caucus
- According to the New York Times, the Jeb Campaign's main goal in Iowa is to finish ahead of Chris Christie due to their low approval rating. Jeb is focusing more on New Hampshire and South Carolina, in the hope that he can save his faltering campaign. Jeb believes that he is in a four way race for second place in New Hampshire.
- Source: http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/25/as-iowa-caucuses-near-jeb-bush-goes-to-nevada/
- Jeb will probably not do well in Iowa, and he is counting on a decent result in the primary from New Hampshire to save his faltering campaign which lacks energy and momentum.
How is Jeb doing?
- Jeb Bush has about 5% of the vote of voters in the republican primary. This is consistent with the percentage he has had for the last couple of months.
- Sources: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html and the huffington post
- Jeb still has a ton of money left to campaign with.
- Total Raised(campaign and SuperPAC) $128,037,114
- Total Spent(campaign and SuperPAC) $19,990,814
Jeb's latest activity
- The Jeb Bush Commercial that I have picked is titled Enough. The commercial was published on Jan 14th, 2016 and has 107,377 views on YouTube. In the commercial targeted at Donald Trump, Bush shows how he stands up for people and helps people regardless of their health or appearance. The commercial includes clips of Trump mocking people with disabilities, Jeb calling Trump a jerk, Jeb interacting with people who have disabilities, and Jeb having a rally at a restaurant whose owner has a child with mental disabilities. The aim of the commercial is most likely to show how Jeb stands up to Trump and how he is an alternative who cares about the people.
- Bush continues to be active on Twitter. In particular, Bush has been active about throwing barbs at Trump and Hillary on Twitter.
- He also has continued to emphasize his experience, record, belief in american unity, and his plans for the US as president.
- Jeb has been busy in the last couple of months visiting Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He has been focusing on New Hampshire and Iowa, but has not neglected the other states. His crowds have also been steadily growing, which shows that he may have a turn in the primaries.
- Source: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/11/politics/jeb-bush-2016-campaign-crowds/
Will he win?
- Jeb does not have what it takes to win in a modern election. He has consistently declined in ratings of approval despite his enormous monetary advantage and lack of scandals. His campaign also lacks the energy to create momentum and support.
- Jeb is a nice and steady guy, but nice does not win against energetic and fiery candidates like Trump and Cruz in a modern society.
Expert opinion from Chris Cilliza in the Washington Post
- According to Cilliza, Jeb will not win the nomination. He is hesitant to say conclusively that Jeb will not make a comeback, but he is very doubtful.
- He believes that Jeb's lack of success if simply because "Republican voters simply don't want what Bush is selling. And the closer it gets to the time to make decisions, the more convinced they are of that fact."
- He sites this as his belief for why Jeb is continuing to decline in popularity despite the support he has from Right to Rise.