Fast Forward : Canada in 2060

What will Canada look like in 2060?

45 Years Ahead?

This smore will discuss the current situation and future predictions of different aspects that will impact Canada's future population and economy. From trends in Canada's demography, immigration and First Nations community, hop on the train of imagination with me.

Present - 2015

Demography

As of the year 2014, the following demographic statistics apply to the Great White North, Canada.

The total population of Canada is approximately 35 million people, which seems to be increasing at a very slow pace over the years. The fertility rate is relatively low at 1.6 children per woman. The birth rate is 11 infants per 1,000 of population and the death rate is 7 deaths per 1,000 of population which is considered low.


In Canada, the life expectancy at birth is at 81 years. The natural increase rate is 0.4%. When both, the natural increase and net migration rates are combined, the overall population growth of Canada is 1.2% annually.

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Canada lies in the 4th stage of the demographic transition model also known as low stationary.
This means that both the country's birth rate and death rate are low, and its population growth is stable or slowly increasing.


The reason behind this is, the country is fully developed due to several causes such as women in the workforce, later marriages, better family planning and good healthcare.

Immigration Trends

Canada is a popular immigration destination for hundreds of people around the world.


At the present time, most new immigrants come from China, India, the Philippines and the Middle East. Canada accepts an average of 250,000 immigrants annually. As of 2014,
the net migration rate is 5.6 migrants per 1,000 of population.

Some common reasons for emigration are to reunite with families and the high tax rate. Unemployment, especially for new immigrants, can also be a reason to leave Canada. According to Statistics Canada, 14% of university-educated immigrants who have come to Canada in the last 5 years are without a job.
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Push factors that drive people to emigrate from their current home:

  • avoid riot, war and persecution (especially the Middle East today)
  • poverty
  • lack of jobs
  • low wages
  • no law and order
  • change in governance
  • one-child policy (specifically China),
  • overcrowding


Pull factors that make Canada appealing to people:
  • free health services
  • gratis elementary and secondary school education
  • better job opportunities to be more successful
  • higher wages,
  • improved standard of living


New immigrants tend to settle in one of the "big three" cities- Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal.
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Approximately 2/3 of immigrants are economic immigrants. Economic immigrants are people who have work skills that are in demand in Canada by which they will contribute to Canada's economy.

First Nations Community

11 facts about the gap between First Nations and the rest of Canada
  • In Canada, the Aboriginal peoples are the fastest-growing people of the population.

  • Of the three Aboriginal groups (First Nations, Métis and Inuit), First Nations had the largest population growth between 2006 and 2011.

  • In general, Aboriginal people have high fertility rates and their population is much younger.

  • 46% of the aboriginal population is under the age of 25.
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  • Aboriginal people have low levels of educational attainment.

  • Compared to non-aboriginal people, aboriginals have higher school drop-out rates and are more likely to have no certificate, diploma or degree.

  • Aboriginal people have low-income and higher unemployment rates.
Pamela Palmater on First Nations education

Future - 2060

Attention: Put your imagination caps on!

Demography

Present-day information and statistics convey multiple predictions about Canada's future in the year 2060.


I envision both, the fertility rate and birth rate to remain comparatively low and may experience trivial changes. This is because people are now replacing babies with pets and are slowly losing the significance of children as they become more of a liability by the day. The natural increase rate will play a minor role in Canada's population growth.


The death rate will experience a dramatic but temporary increase as baby boomers die around the age of 89 which I predict is the future life expectancy. As new medical technology is discovered, longer healthier lives will be supported.

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I think immigration will be the main factor behind Canada's population growth in 2060. The total population of Canada will grow tremendously from the high number of immigration intake especially with the retirement of baby boomers which will create a period of high dependency load.



The population growth will revert to low because Canada will have had enough immigrants from that time period.


Canada will remain in the 4th stage of the demographic transition model as there will not be a shift in the birth and death rates.

Immigration Trends

As mentioned earlier, immigration will remain the main factor behind Canada's population growth in the year 2060.


I predict new immigrants will come from South Africa as they try to escape poverty. This will also help reduce the substantial increase of global population.


The push and pull factors will stay the same with respect to the improvement of other countries' situation.


New immigrants will settle in provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Maritimes to mainly find a reasonable cost of living, avoid overcrowding of metropolitan areas and avoid competition for jobs.


Based on the "Permanent Immigrants by Class and Landing Year" graph, less refugees are expected. They will still be welcome but most likely decrease in number as harsh living conditions change around the world in 45 years.

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Economic immigrants will still outnumber the other groups of immigrants especially when Canada attracts more of them to help the economy in times of high dependency load as post-war baby boomers retire.


By the year 2060, the dependency load will decrease as baby boomers die. In which case, less economic immigrants will be needed to support the economy hence the population growth will revert to low because Canada will have had enough immigrants from that time period.

First Nations Community

45 years from now, the Indian Act of 1876 will be discontinued considering the number of First Nations communities that made a more proactive approach to communicate with the government and the general public to negotiate the Act.


The media will also play a huge role by representing the First Nations community well in which it will enlighten people and remove the blinds of ignorance about the past.

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After the removal of the Indian Act, the First Nations community will receive great help from the Canadian government as they decide to take an initiative in settling the issue and unfulfilled promises.


Canada will treat the First Nations community like all other Canadians regardless. They will provide them with high-quality healthcare, education and improve their living standard. This will help decrease the First Nations' death rate as well as the low levels of education attainment.


Based on the Aboriginal population information and charts above, their population will increase significantly in the upcoming years due to the high rate of birth. This will also be a contributing factor to Canada's population growth. Furthermore, this will be to Canada's advantage, as they will use their large number of youth to shape Canada's economy.


First Nations people will be accepted and respected in the community just like immigrants with different cultures and traditions are.


Overall, things are taking a turn for the better in regard to First Nations communities.
A brighter, more positive future is anticipated.

60-Year-Old Me

HK2

60-Year-Old Me by HK2
To sum up, different trends in Canada's demography, immigration and First Nations community are going to have a huge impact on Canada's future in the year 2060.

Bibliography

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<http://data.worldbank.org/indicator>.

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"Rate of Natural Increase." Population Reference Bureau. n.p. 2014. Web. 11 Mar. 2015.

<http://www.prb.org/DataFinder/Topic/Rankings.aspx?ind=16>.
"First Nations Communications Toolkit." Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada. 21 Mar. 2012. Web. 13 Mar. 2015.

<https://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1100100021860/1100100021862>.

"Canadians in Context - Aboriginal Population." Employment and Social Development Canada. 14 Mar. 2015. Web. 14 Mar. 2015.
<http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=36>.
"Fact Sheet - 2011 National Household Survey Aboriginal Demographics, Educational Attainment and Labour Market Outcomes." Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada. 15 Aug. 2013. Web. 14 Mar. 2015.

<https://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1376329205785/1376329233875>.



Canada 2014. Chart. Index Mundi. 23 Aug. 2014. Web.
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Statistics. Chart. The Canadian Magazine of Immigration. n.d. Web. <http://www.canadaimmigrants.com/immigration/statistics/>.

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Canada 2014. Picture. Shutterstock. n.d. Web.

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Picture. Web.
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Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population age, 2011. Chart. Employment and Social Development Canada. 14 Mar. 2015. Web.

<http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=36>.
Azerbaijan's population exceeds 9.5 million. Picture. Azerbaijan's New Network. 3 January 2015. <http://ann.az/en/azerbaijans-population-exceeds-95-million/#.VQOeAfnF-pA>.