🍁 Canada in 2060 🍁

Canada's Immigration, Demography & Aboriginals in the future

🍁 Canada's Future? 🍁

What will Canada look like in the 45 years? People may think of flying cars, robots or holographs, but in terms of Immigration, Demography and Aboriginals, what will change in Canada? As seen in the current trends, we can estimate or predict what the future will hold for Canada.

Topics of Discussion

🍁 Immigration 🍁

Canada receives about 250,000 Immigrants per year currently; theoretically, Canada will allow more immigrants in 45 years!

Firstly, as technology increases and improves, more people will become wealthier. Furthermore, since the quality of living is improving in many countries, people in developing countries will be able to afford immigration into Canada. These factors would influence an increase in Economic Immigrants. Canada will allow wealthier people into the country and therefore provide jobs and businesses to new immigrants and residents.

As there will be more incoming immigrants, there will be more immigrants who want to be reunited, and therefore, there will be more Family Immigrants.

The number of Refugees in a country depends on what events are occurring in the world at that time, for example, if there is a war going on, there will be exponentially greater refugees compared to a regular state. Meaning, if the state of countries would improve (as predicted), then there would be less refugees.

All immigrants would be attracted to Canada in the future due to Canada's pull factors and their home country's push factors. However, many pull factors for Canada would be extremely similar to as they are now, good economy, jobs and businesses, and health care. The push factors will also be very similar including war, and natural disasters.

As the population is set to grow in other countries (and Canada's population decreasing), Canada will allow more immigrants to settle, meaning the immigration rate would increase. But where would the people settle and come from? Countries such as India, will have a staggering population, so it is likely that an exponential amount of immigrants would arrive from India or China. Many would settle in large cities, with jobs, ethnic enclaves and transportation, including cities in Ontario and British Columbia. Countries with a somewhat increase in population including France, Belgium and Switzerland, have a large amount of French speaking people, meaning provinces like Quebec (if they don't split from Canada by then) will attract them.

Also, assuming Canada's population will decrease in the upcoming years, Canada would need to allow more immigrants to sustain the population growth.

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🍁 Demography 🍁

Demography is the most likely factor to change over 45 years. Demography describes the study of population characteristics including population growth. Canada's population is extremely dependent on various calculations including birth rate and death rate. Currently, Canada's birth rate in 2011 was 1.61/1000 people, and the birth rate is on a decline! 2 generations ago, people were having up to 5 or 6 kids, their kids had about 1 to 3 kids and it is likely that this will decrease (or eventually balance out at an extremely low level). Looking at the population pyramid (below), Canada's population growth is declining as shown in the most recent years, this will mean that the kids of the future will have less kids, and so on. To summarize, in 20 years, there will be less people to have kids, meaning there are less kids. 20 years after that, there are even fewer!

The death rate will decrease however; the improving technology and health care will contribute to an improvement towards fewer deaths.

As Canada is currently in stage four of the demographic transition model, it is extremely probable that by 2060, we will reach stage five. It took about 80 years for Canada to enter stage four (from stage three) and it is likely that by 2060, Canada will be in stage five. This will mean that the natural increase for Canada will be negative, meaning there will be more people dying (baby boomers) than people being born. The way to solve that is immigrants!

Also, as Canada's birth rate is decreasing, the government would want more immigrants, in order to keep the population growth positive.

These will all contribute to a positive population growth rate, to sustain the functioning population and economy.

According to Stats Canada, the population in 2063, is going to range from 51 million to about 60 million, that can be influenced by the demographics and immigrants!

Fun Fact: The population growth rate is extremely likely to continue to increase as estimated by the doubling time or rule of 70. As of 2013, Canada's population was approximately 33 Million! It is calculated that by 2084, Canada's population would be 66 million. If further calculations are considered, Canada would have about 54,620,000 people in 2060 (33 Million/71 Years = About 460,000 Immigrants/Year)!

Canada's Changing Demographics
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🍁 Aboriginals 🍁

Aboriginals, the people who live on reserves and don't pay taxes and drink and live an amazing life... that is not the case however, Aboriginal people are currently struggling and are likely going to continue to struggle in the future! Aboriginal peoples refer to First Nations people, Inuit and MΓ©tis, who each live in different areas of Canada and access different rights. Recently, the population of aboriginals have been increasing compared to the studies in 2006 (below), meaning if the populations continue to increase, then the aboriginals will continue to survive. Since 1996 (to 2006), the population has increased by 1.2 million! However, as the Indian Act is continuously changing, there could be limited land in populated provinces in 2060, which will decrease reserve lands for aboriginals, which would increase to their struggles. Currently, very few people know of the native culture, especially as the native people are becoming more modernised, however, that could be a limiting factor as to the complete being of the First Nations peoples. In the future, there could be extremely less populations of First Nations people since the population is declining. Also, if any information can be learned from populations of other countries, eventually, the aboriginals will enter a stage in the demographic transition model where the birth rate will decrease and there will constantly be less first nations people. First Nations peoples' population is a major issue that needs to be resolved!
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🍁 What does the Future Hold? 🍁

No one can see the future, however, based on information and various trends, we can hypothesize how Immigration, Demography and Aboriginal peoples will impact Canada in the future. The demography of Canada is dependent on the immigration and growth; as the population will decline, Canada will allow more immigrants, affecting the demography. This connects to the aboriginal populations as they shall be influenced by the new settlers through the demographic transition model. Therefore, based on concepts in the current situation, we can predict the future of Canada.

Shiv

Canada in 2060 by Shiv

Bibliography

Kalbach W. E. "Population." The Canadian Encyclopedia. 2006. 10 Oct. 2015 <http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/population/>

(n.a.) "Demographic Change. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. 2010. 10 Oct. 2015. <http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/int1-eng.htm>

Canada's Changing Demographics. Dir. Steve Paikin. TVO, 2015.

Images via Google Images