Canada In 2050

by: Manraj

Introduction

What will Canada be like in 2050? A question I haven't yet thought of, until I was given this assignment. However this is a good question, and one worth thinking about. However i'll have to narrow this whole "how will Canada be in 2050" thing down a little. What I'm mainly talking about how our population will be, focusing on Aboriginals, demography, and immigration. Ok then, let's get this report started!

Aboriginals

There were a total of 1.4 million people who reported that they had aboriginal blood in them (statistics Canada) in 2011. Most of these aboriginals live in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and B.C, making up 4.3% of Canada's total population (statistics Canada). They also have higher fertility rates (auca.ca) compared to the rest of Canada, and are one of Canada's fastest growing populations. But only 36% (ammsa.ca) of aboriginals on reserves graduated from high school (refer to picture below). In 20 11 there were about 318,830 residents on the reserves, but only 36% of them graduated from high school. this could result in a higher un-employment rate, and have it's effects on the economy. Most of these events happen because schools on reserves are underfunded, and many teens are misguided in the sense that they are affiliated with drug abuse and suicide. But education is not the only problem. Life on reserves is very hard to deal with. Houses on reserves have a lack of clean water, and are also built poorly. Although we can't undo the damage that has been done, we can help the future. With efforts by the government, and support groups, and charities, there may be a brighter future a head for the aboriginals.

My prediction for 2050 is that there will be around 3.22 million aboriginals (based on the fact that the fertility rate in 2006 for aboriginals was around 2.3) (statistics Canada), and we could see more change within their community. The government is planning to add more counselling programmes by 2014(www.justice.gc.ca), and are also planning to add 100 million dollars to aboriginal education over the next 3 years (www.justice.gc.ca). Also in 2010-2011 the government of Canada added 400 million dollars to aboriginal housing needs( www.justice.gc.ca), and the Canada Mortgage and Housing corporation donated 143 million dollars to help increase the funding of aboriginal houses. Based on all these steps that we're now taking to help these people, by 2050 they will most probably be living in better conditions, and more of them will have better education. As for where will they be living. I believe that by 2050 most of the reserve land will remain un touched, mainly because we're not having a really big increase of population. However there will most probably be an increase of Aboriginals in Saskatchewan (McGill university.ca). This guess is based on studies done at McGill university.

As you can see the high school graduation stats for Aboriginals on reserves ( the blue one) is usually the lowest.

Picture from statistics Canada

Demography

In 2013 there were 35,295,770 Canadian citizens (statistics Canada). We had a birth rate of 11 per 1000 people in 2011 (Worldbank.org), and a death rate of 8.2 per 1000 people in 2011 (cia.ca.gov). Currently Canada has more of an aging population as shown in the figure below, and this could continue for the next few decades or so. This is mainly due to the low fertility rate of 1.66, (2011 statistics Canada) and the increase in life expectancy. This would mean an increase in jobs in and around the nursery field, and it could also mean more business for pharmacists, and retirement homes. But this information also points to the fact that the death rate might become higher than the birth rate in the near future. At that point immigrants will be our only source of population growth, although that is not necessarily a bad thing, but not that good of a thing either. A decrease in babies, and a smaller population would mean that companies like Pampers, Huggies and other baby product companies will loose a lot of business. That would amount to many people loosing their jobs, leading to an increase of unemployment rates. But on the flip side, since parents won't have to buy such products like Pampers, they might have more money to spend, perhaps on things like new T.Vs, leading to an increase in that job market.

The birth rate in 2050 could most likely be around 9.7(geoba.se) and the death rate could be at 12.8 (geoba.se), as for natural increase will be at most likely be at -3.1, and our population could be ae around 40 million people. The unemployment rate was a little tricky. Unemployment is currently at 7%, and it could go down to around 6.6%. But why will it go down? Well, if you can recall, during the space age the economies of the countries that were participating were doing fairly well. This was because there were more jobs being produced for the production of technology, jobs that were to complex to be done by some guy in a country like China or Bangladesh who where you could get it done cheaper. As our technology increases, and by 2050 it most likely will, jobs will become to complex for someone who doesn't have the knowledge to do these things. Although this probably won't help the owners of those companies, it will help everybody else, including lower and middle class.

As you can see the age group of the elderly has gotten bigger than it once was in 1966.
Census 2011: Canada's demographic shift

Immigration

An immigrant is someone who comes from one country to another, usually in search for a better life. This could range from anyone who is a refugee, or someone in search for more opportunity. Canada receives around 260 000 immigrants per year (cic.gc.ca). Immigrants usually come here because of pull factors such as better schooling, better health care, more job opportunities, and there is more multiculturalism and rights. But where do these immigrants come from, and why leave there homes. 11% come from europe, mainly because many countries have a high cost of living (Canadafaq.org).

6% come from U.S.A, mainly because of the bad economy, and high unemployment rate (Canadafaq.org).

4% come from Africa, because of famine, corrupt government, disease, etc (Canadafaq.org).

70% come from Asia, due to crowded countries, bad economies, and some have low opportunities (Canada faq.org).

70% of the immigrants that come here settle in Quebec ( mainly Montreal) , Ontario (mainly Toronto), or B.C (mainly Vancouver) (Canadafaq.org) due to the urbanization of those places, and also because many people have relatives in those cities. By 2050, I believe Canada will allow more immigrants annually, possibly 300,000 due to the fact that immigrants will be our only source of population growth. Our pull factors could include high job opportunities, because of the low un-employment rate, an even bigger supply of natural resources due to global warming, and all, if not most of the pull factors we have today. Immigrants will most probably still be coming from countries like India, and China, but as Hans Rosling projected, more and more people may move up a class, and this will give be giving less reason to start a whole new life in a foreign country. However if that projection is true that could mean more immigrants from countries in Africa, because more people will be eligible for a passport, considering the fact that more people can afford school. I also believe immigrants will begin to settle in cities like Saskatchewan, Calgary, and Edmonton, as cities like Toronto, and Vancouver begin to get more and more crowded.

This pie graph shows the place where immigrants tend to settle in most.

Conclusion

Due to Professor Heisenberg's un-certainty principal, humans can never be 100% certain about anything, including small things like "what I'm going to eat tomorrow'. But we can make guesses, and my guess is that by 2050 Canada will be have an older population, with a relativity good economy, more considerate towards Aboriginals, and even more open to immigrants than it already is. But then again that is if we are able to avoid war, disease, and natural disaster.

life in 2050

Soundcloud wasn't working for me, so I decided to type this up. Life in 2050 will be a lot different then how my parents are living currently. I believe that the technology will be more advanced, which could mean higher life expectancy for me. Also, because of the low fertility rates, and by the time my parents retire, it will be easier for me, or at least the next generation to find a job. I also think that all of my generation might be more educated then my parents generation, I'm saying this because almost everyone is getting a degree in something, which may make it harder to get into college. However I don't believe that there will be a pension plan in 2050, and if there will be one it will be very low. This is a guess based on the fact that the pension plan has been getting lesser and lesser. This could mean lower taxes because no one has to pay for the pension plan anymore, but if there is one then taxes will be very high, due to the fact that there are so many seniors. I Also believe that I will get married later then when my parents where married and have kids a little later, so the ratio between my kids age and mine will be bigger than the ratio between my dad and me. This is mainly because I want to focus on my career more, and my wife will probably want to focus on her carrier more as well. I also believe that most people will be driving electric cars, considering that gas prices are still high, and are not goanna come down. As for immigration, I believe that cities like Calgary, Edmonton, etc. will be attracting more immigrants than cities like Toronto or Vancouver, mainly because these cities are already densely populated. Aside from that, I think that Canada and the world, including 3rd world countries will all be more associated with technology. As new technology comes out, the older ones will become more cheaper and affordable making them accessible to the more poorer countries. this is what I believe 2050 will be like.

Bibliography

"Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Metis and Inuit."

Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Metis and Inuit. N.p.,

n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2014


"Birth Rate, Crude (per 1,000 People)." Data. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Mar. 2014.


"Births and Total Fertility Rate, by Province and Territory (Fertility Rate)."

Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Mar. 2014


"Canada's Aboriginal Education Crisis [ Column]." Home. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Mar.

2014


"Country Comparison :: Death Rate." Central Intelligence Agency. Central

Intelligence Agency, n.d. Web. 11 Mar. 2014.


"Home Page — Statistics Canada." Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. N.p.,

n.d. Web. 10 Mar. 2014.


"Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031."

Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031.

Demosim Team, n.d. Web. 13 Mar. 2014.


"SEND US FEEDBACK." Geoba.se: Gazetteer. N.p., n.d. Web. 13 Mar. 2014.