Creating Tomorrow
Newsletter February 2017
This month I have described an old favourite 'The Problem Tree' great for revealing the complexity of the issue you want to explore. In the Guardian was an article I read recently by Jill Berry author of Making the Leap - Moving from Deputy to Head. I have included a link to it. Lastly I take a look at a simple model for thinking about measuring impact which I have found useful.
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Pat Collarbone
Problem Tree Diagram
Purpose
To illustrate the linkages between a set of complex issues or relationships by fitting them into a hierarchy of related factors. The tree provides an overview of all of the known causes and effects of the identified problem.
Process
1. Write the issue in the middle of a sheet of flipchart paper.
2. Add the immediate effects above and immediate causes below (as in the example)
3. Each cause statement should be written in negative terms
4. Further expand the tree by drilling down into each effect and cause by adding secondary and tertiary effects and causes
Outputs
Critical issues that need to be tackled in the workshop
Hints and tips
As you add secondary and tertiary cause and effects you may well have to move them around, that’s why it’s useful to use post-its at this stage. There is also software
(Insight maker) that supports this.
Typical duration
45 minutes
Becoming a headteacher: four things future leaders need to know
- Prepare for the big picture
- The need to be able to juggle
- Ensure a happy handover
- Have a clear vision and stay true to your values
Impacts and outputs
When you take up a new role or initiate a change it is crucial to identify when it makes sense to measure impacts and when it might be best to stick with outputs — especially when your control over the results is limited, and causality remains poorly understood. I have found the following four concepts useful when thinking about this:
Additionality
Additionality tries to ascertain what was actually achieved as a result of a change, compared to what would have happened anyway. Pure additionality is nearly always difficult to achieve. Therefore, you may need to make arbitrary adjustments to estimate partial additionality.
Deadweight
Evaluations should also estimate that part of the change, referred to as deadweight, which was not necessary to achieve the desired objective. There is also outcome deadweight i.e. the activity may be additional but still does not change the outcome.
Displacement
Displacement occurs when an activity displaces another activity because it reduces the amount of effort or funding going towards it or competes for scarce resources. A project may attract scarce skills, or funding, which would otherwise have gone to other parts of the organisation.
Spillovers
In some cases changes may be expected to have a positive impact on third parties other than the direct target population. These impacts, known as spillovers, are often difficult to measure and requires a thorough understanding of linkages.