Canada in 2060
By Marko Jandrieski
No one knows what the future holds for the world, and not knowing how the world will end up can be scary, but at the same time intriguing. Although no one knows the exact fate of the world, using today's data can give us some insight to what the world will look like for us and our way of life. In this case it’s what the future holds for Canada, leading up to the year 2060. Canada’s careful attention to data allows us to predict immigration, population, and aboriginal trends knowing what we know about them today. This article interprets Canada’s future trends.
Rate of Immigration
Today, Canada brings in approximately 250 000 people per year and has been that way since about the year 1990, without much increase. Canada's increase rate is already one of the highest in the world, which leads in some controversy (Immigration Watch Canada). Any significant amount larger than 250 000 in the world would be too much, which is the reason it has remained about the same rate for the past decade. Looking towards the future it seems as though the rate of immigration to Canada will stay the same at about 250 000 per year, as anymore wouldn't be viable, and Canada should focus on fixing other issues that Canada has within itself before it looks at bringing in more people per year than it already does.
The demographic transition model can tell us about Canada’s birth rate in the future, in Canada’s current stage, (stage four) Canada’s birth rate stabilizes and doesn’t increase or decrease much. Looking towards the past, this has been the case as the birth rate hasn’t changed drastically (Index Mundi) Stage five in the demographic transition model remains a mystery, but judging from the past I can predict that Canada’s birth rate will remain the same going towards the future until some large circumstance changes the development in Canada and therefore changes the birth rate, but until that happens there isn’t a way to see what that change is.
The death rate in Canada has had some alterations over the years but more than always finds the average and stays remains at that point which represents the demographic transition model, and how a country in stage four of the transition model, like Canada has a death rate that stays the same over time. Looking towards stage five of the transition model is unknown but can be put to interpretation. The result of Canada’s slowly increasing population is because there is a difference in birth rate and death rate (higher birth rate as appose to death rate = increasing population.) Having a growing population means that there either is an increase in birth rate and death rate remains the same, or birth rate remains the same and death rate decreases, which makes more sense. Advancements in technology and health care that happen every day help people live longer and decrease the amount of deaths per year, and one can only imagine what advancements will be made in the future, so it would be the most logical if the death rate decreases towards the year 2060.
The population of Canada will slowly increase towards the year 2060 according to the demographic transition model, where Canada is in stage four. In stage four, Canada has a high population with little difference between birth rate and death rate, meaning that the total population of Canada will increase, but at very slow increments. Using the data of today’s population we can predict the population in 2060, about 45 000 000 people. (The Globe And Mail)
Equality with Aboriginals
The population of aboriginals in Canada is a faster growing population than the rest of the population in Canada, increasing by 20% between 2006 and 2011 (12.statcan) Along with being the youngest population in Canada, their population is greatly increasing. Many developments and laws have been put in place that have allowed for them to have a better quality of live and expand their population. In the future it seems as though the aboriginals will continue to grow and intertwine with the rest of Canada's multicultural environment.