Canada In 2050

What will Canada look like in the year of 2050?

When one thinks of the future, thoughts on overpopulation, lack of resources, global warming, and chaotic weather might come to mind. By predicting the changes that might occur in the future can help indicating what changes Canada needs to make to prevent disasters from happening. In this case, how will it change demographically? By looking at the current population, immigration and Aboriginal situations we can predict how Canada will change demographically and the challenges we will have to face by 2050.

Immigrants

General Population

  • 1 in 5 people are foreign born (foreign born population was 20% of total population in 2011 compared to 19.8 % in 2006 (Statistics Canada)
  • most immigrants come from Asia (Statistics Canada)
  • in 2011 94.8% of immigrants moved to Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta (in metropolitan areas) (Statistics Canada)
  • international migration is resonsible for 2/3 of population growth (CTV News Canada)
Due to the low fertility rate of Canadians, most of the population growth comes from immigrants. By 2050, the number of immigrants might increase even more and may even become equal or outnumber the Canadian population. This is important for our economy because with the small predicted number of children in the future, we will not have enough people filling jobs for the retired baby boomers. This means that without a large number of immigrants coming in, the population will decrease. Most immigrants move to metropolitan areas that have job oppourtunities and this may cause overpopulation in cities.

Push and Pull Factors

In 2050, most of the pull factors for coming into Canada might still remain the same. Canada will most likely still have a reputation of having a high standard of living and advaced free health care which will attract people from contries with poor living conditions once they have enough money to immigrate. Im addition, since Canada is very multicultural and more ethnic groups would have formed, immigrants would feel more welcome because there are people that practice the same traditions and languages. The push factors for leaving Canada may also be the same as it is today. For example poor living conditions and lack of rights and freedoms. In some countries, I belive that conditions might steadlily improve in terms of rights and freedoms because humanity is improving in some ways, such as less racism and the legality of gay marrige (in some countries).

Point System, Requirements and Types of Immigrants

There are 3 types of immigrants that are accepted into Canada: Refugees, Economic and Family Class. I believe that Canada will be targeting economic immigrants because they would be essential to keep our economy stable.
Making Economic Immigration Work for Canada
This video explains how important immigration is for Canada's economy. The Canadian Goverment is changing the point system and requirements for immigration in order to target young workers with work experience and skill, for example, Canada will be taking in more skilled trades people.

Aboriginals

Population

  • represent 4.3% of total population in Canada
  • children aged 14 and under represent 28% of Aboriginal population compared to 16.5% that children represent in the non-Aboriginal population
  • population increased 20.1% from 2000 to 2011
  • high fertility rates
(Statistics Canada)
Looking at the current population growth of Aboriginals, it is expected that the population will grow quickly because it has increased by a large number in 5 years (2006-2011). This growth is due to a fertility rate that is higher than the non-aboriginal population.

Living Conditions

  • 1 in 5 Aboriginals live in a home that needs serious repairs (CTV News Canada)
  • suicide rate is 5 times greater than non-Aboriginal Canadians (CTV News Canada)
  • less first nations live on reserve (60%) and move to metropolitan areas (Statistics Canada)
  • unsanitary drinking water (Pearson Education Canada Inc.)
  • high unemployment (Pearson Education Canada Inc.)
  • reserves are too small to support the growing population (Pearson Education Canada Inc.)
The terrible living conditions are forcing aboriginals off their reserves to metropolitan areas where they will have a higher change of finding a job to support their families. This would also mean a loss of culture and traditions for some aboriginals. Conditions are getting worse in Native reserves because of poor health care, stagering poverty rates and unsafe homes. If action is not taken for funding these reserves, the situation will only get worse and the population will start to die out and even more aboriginals will start to live off reserve to survive causing a further loss of Aboriginal culture. The future for aboriginals in Canada does not look bright.

Education

  • high school graduation rate is 36% compared to 72% of Canada overall
  • many communities see only half high school student finish basic education
(CBC News)

How Canada Is Taking Action


In February 2014, prime minister Stephen Harper announced an agreement between the Government of Canada and the Assembly of First Nations and created the First Nations Control of First Nations Education Act. This act will give children on reserve an equal education as any Canadian. (Prime Minister of Canada | Stephen Harper)

Because the youth population of Aboriginals is a large proportion, it is vital to give each of them an oppourtunity to have a good education in order for there to be less poverty among them. If the First Nations Control of First Nations Education Act becomes successful, aboriginal children will grow up to get a job more easily which will allow them to earn enough money for a standard lifestyle. This act can benefit aboriginal children significantly in 2050.

Demographics

General Population

  • there are approximately 35 million people living in Canada
  • the average growth rate from 2000-2010 was 1.1
  • the projected average growth rate from 2010-2060 is expected to decrease at 0.9
(Statistics Canada)
Although the population had changed drastically from the 1950's to the 1990's (doubling in size), the population now grows at a slow and steady rate. I do not think we will be expecting a very big increase in 2050, mainly due to the birth rate and the death rate, which will be higher due to the death of baby boomers in the future.
  • More than one Canadian in three (35.0%) was living in one of Canada's three largest CMAs, Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver (Statistics Canada)

Fertility Rate

  • The average fertility rate is 1.6 (Statistics Canada.)
  • The average fertility rate was 3.9 in 1959 (Employment and Social Development Canada)
  • The fertility rate is very low in Canada and there are many families of 3.


The fertility rate has dropped so much in the past 50 years because families don't necessarily need children. In developing countries women would have many children to help with labour and to replace babies that die due to poor conditions and health care (although the fertility rate has been dropping even in third world countries in present day). Some other significant factors that back up the reasoning behind less children is more effective birth control and the expenses that come with raising a child. Choosing to have children would mean saving up for the climbing cost of university tuition, clothing, food and many other expenses so not everyone can afford having more than one child. Statistically, the fertility rate might decrease even further in Canada but by very little because wealthier families may continue to choose to have more than one child because raising a bigger family appeals to some people. This would mean a decrease in population if it weren't for immigrants.

Baby Boomers


  • the median age is now 39.9 years (Employment and Social Development Canada)
  • Post World War II couples had more babies because birth control methods were not advanced and they were married at a younger age (The Canadian Encyclopaedia)
  • median age was 40 years in 2012 (The Canadian Encyclopaedia)


Death Rate

The death rate will increase by 2050 because it will close to the time that the baby boomers will pass away due to age. Because there will be a low birthrate, meaning there will not be as many children, seniors are expected to outnumber children. (The Canadian Encyclopedia)


Effects on Economy

Before 2050, seniors will retire at around the same time leaving their jobs in need to be filled by people with particular skill set, resulting in the availability of many jobs. This would mean delaying retirement and having people from other countries immigrate for the jobs. In addition, economic and social demands will lean towards health care, retirement homes and other needs for the growing population of seniors because a large portion of the population will be seniors. (The Canadian Encyclopedia)

In 2014, there is already a large number of the population that is over 40 years old. This is expected to increase significantly...

The Big Picture

In conclusion, Canada will be relying on immigration to fuel the economy once the baby boomers retire. The population of Aboriginals might decrease in 2050. Knowing that Canada will need people immigrating that have specific skills, changes are to be made when accepting newcomers in order to have a large quantity of people that will be able to sustain our economy. As for Aboriginals, the government has to step up and focus further on their condition in reserves in order for their culture to carry out in the years to come.

neha505

Thoughts On My Life in 2050 by neha505

Bibliography

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