Canada 2060

By Nadeem Qureishi

Introduction

Have you ever wondered if you could look into the future of Canada? Well keep your eyes wide open, because this report will be showing you exactly that. It will be showcasing the 3 different trends in immigration, demography, as well as the Aboriginal community in Canada. I will be providing you with information on Canada's current situation with these trends, providing statistics and facts, as well as some of my own insight and knowledge. I will be locating a graph on the right hand side to display some of the trends that I'll be discussing. Not only will I fill you in on the current standpoint of Canada in terms of immigration, demography, and Aboriginals, but I will also provide my own thoughts on what Canada will look like in 2060. Without further adieu, open your eyes to the future.

Immigration Trends

Current Trends

1. The most recent report Canada had recorded showed a foreign population of approximately 6,775,800 people. Representing about 20.6% of the total population.
  • Immigration is playing a huge role in shaping our country as a whole and increasing population growth, as we rely on immigrants to make up for our currently aging population
  • A large chunk of the foreign population had immigrated from Africa, South America, Asia, as well as South Asia. However,the top three countries are China, India and the Philippines.
  • Out of all the G8 countries, Canada has the highest portion of a foreign born population, well above the portion in Germany (13.0% foreign born) as well as the United States (12.9% foreign born) (Census: Immigrant Population to Explode by 85 Percent by 2060)
As mentioned above, immigration is now a big part of our population as a whole. Currently representing about 21%, the number will only continue to increase as the years go on. Without immigration, our population would be much smaller than it already is, which would not be good for our country.

2. Currently, Canada is relying on young immigrants with specialized skills and knowledge to help sustain and improve our economy.
  • Firstly, the new immigrants are filling in job positions where Canada is currently lacking workers. For example, we are currently in need of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, dentists, etc.
  • Not only are the immigrants aiding the economy by filling job positions, but they are also providing their own ideas/input on how to run certain things, and essentially, making us look from different perspectives to see the bigger picture. (Canada Skilled Worker Program - Immigration Visas)
The immigrants are a vital part in improving our economy, as we are definitely in need of skilled workers, as well as people that can help give input on how we can make Canada an even better place than it already is.


3. Immigration is one of the only sources of our current population growth, as our country seems to have a steadily declining population due to a deacreasing natural increase rate.

  • As of 2014, Canada has been ranked 24th for our net migration rate. (5.66 per 1,000 people)
  • Immigration is not only helping by putting a start to an increasing population, but the young/middle aged immigrants, as they start to have families, will also help the birth rate flourish, which in due time can meet the death rate. (The World Factbook)
Immigration is benefiting Canada currently in many ways. Not only is it good for our economy, but it one of our largest sources of population growth, which is perfect at this time where we are experiencing an aging, declining population.
This graph proves my point in saying that there is a shortage in skilled workers, and workers in general.
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Future Predictions

I believe that, in 2060, Canada's immigrant population will almost double. As our natural increase rate is decreasing, Canada is starting to rely more on our net migration rate for population growth, because as the natural increase rate is constantly decreasing, we need the net migration to be that much higher. I believe that by 2060, Canada will try to increase immigration in any way possible, such as promoting it to different countries, etc.

First Nations

Current Trends

1. The First Nations are an extremely small part of Canada's total population today.
  • According to an annual household survey, it was recorded that there was a total of 1,400,685 aboriginals in Canada, making up only 4.3% of the total population.
  • Of the three main aboriginal groups, the First Nations had the largest population (851,560 people), with the Métis as the second largest (451,795), and Inuits following (59,445).
  • Though the aboriginal population is extremely small, the population is much younger compared to the overall Canadian population. The median age of the First Nation population was 27.7 years, while the Canadians had a median age of 40.6 years, making the First Nations median age 13 years younger.
The aboriginals are not a big part of our aging population, as most of the aboriginal population are in their youth/young years.

2. The First Nations population may be a lot smaller compared to Canada's general population, but they are growing a lot faster.

  • The aboriginal population has increased by 20.1% from 2006 to 2011.
  • There is a higher fertility rate with the Aboriginal women compared to Non-Aboriginal women in Canada.
The aboriginal population has been increasing rapidly compared to the rest of the Canadian population, which is better for Canada since the aboriginals have a younger population.

3. Life expectancy for the Aboriginals are lower than the rest of Canada's population.
  • Among all of the aboriginals, the Inuit appear to have the lowest life expectancy, which is 64 years for males, and 73 years for females.
  • The Metis and First Nations have somewhat similar life span expectancy, which is 73-74 years for males, and 78-80 years for females.
  • The life expectancy for the rest of the total Canadian population is shown to be 79 years for males, and 83 years for females.
The aboriginal population seems to be the exact opposite of the current Canadian population. They are growing rapidly, while the Canadian population is growing very slowly. They are also a younger population and they seem to have a shorter life span while the Non-Aboriginal Canadians seem to have a longer one.
This graph proves my point by showing that the aboriginal population is much younger than the Canadian population.
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Future Predictions

I predict that in 2060 there won't be as many Aboriginals aged 60 and over, but instead more younger aboriginals. Due to the fact that the aboriginal population is very young, I know that around 40-45 years from now most of them will be in their mid 60's. This also means that when the older group of aboriginals fall out of the pyramid, the death rate will increase, especially considering their shorter life expectancy. Secondly, I believe the percentage of aboriginal youth will increase because by 2060 the young aboriginals of today will have lots of children, also considering the fact that the women have a higher fertility rate. Lastly, if the life expectancy of the aboriginals continues to be small, they would want to have more children and larger families, so that it would contribute to growing their population more. To sum it all up, Canada's in 2060 will notice a rising amount of young aboriginals, which will in turn help Canada's population growth.

Demography

Current Trends

1. While Canada has a decent amount of working age people, the seniors and elderly Canadians clearly account for a higher amount of the population than the younger ones who will have jobs in the future.
  • Currently, in 2015, Canada's total population consists of 7838 people aged 19 and below, 22154 people aged 20 - 64 and 5771 who are aged 65 and above. This totals to approximately a little above 30,000 people.
  • As the elderly are taking up a larger portion of the population than the youth, there will have to be more workers working to aid one elder citizen, meaning as the years go by, there will be more workers helping aid a senior citizen, causing further stress on our growing youth. (Population Of Canada Projected To 2060)
As of now, there is a huge burden on our workers, as I mentioned previously, they will be retiring much later in order to help pay for seniors pensions/social programs, and in the upcoming future the workers will retire even more later, simply due to the fact that they will have to help sustain the elderly.

2. The baby boomers are a big factor when we look at demography trends.
  • According to the most recent census, 29% of Canadians were baby boomers.
  • Because of the baby boomers, we have an aging population which is only continuing to age.
  • The aging population from the baby boomers results in a lack of young, working age population to fill in job positions where we lack workers, thus, making our economy worse. (Immigration & Ethnocultural Diversity In Canada)
Baby boomers are the biggest reason we have our aging population today. They are causing a lot of stress on younger workers, creating a deficit of workers in the labour force, and many more things that aren't necessarily aiding our country.


3. The natural increase rate we have currently, is starting to decrease, meaning we have a high death to birth rate ratio.

  • As Canada is currently in stage 4, it means our death and birth rate is starting to stabilize, but we are starting to see more deaths.
  • More people are not seeing any importance in having large families, when they can have smaller families and invest more time in them, thus making our birth rate lower
  • The aging population is starting to slowly reach their life expectancy, making that chunk of the population fall off of the population pyramid, making the death rate increase, leaving us with a low birth rate, and essentially, a decreasing population.
Our natural increase rate is slowly decreasing, which as I mentioned, will shift Canada into a stage 5 country in the near future.
This graph is showcasing that our population is aging more and more as the years are going by.
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Future Predictions

I assume in 2060, the total population will decrease, and Canada will slowly start to move to stage 5 on the demographic transition model. This is all due to the fact that our birth rate is a lot higher than our death rate. As mentioned previously, as our aging population gets even older and reaches the end of their life expectancy, they will lose their place in the population pyramid, thus leaving us with a drastic change in population as the death rate will go up, and the birth rate will remain low. In 2060 I believe the population will start to begin to stabilize, as most of the baby boomers will be gone by then, letting the birth rate catch up with the death rate.
This video below will explain the demographic trends currently happening, and what exactly we can expect in the future. To explain it very briefly, at around 2030 and after, we will see a huge labour deficit in Canada.
Demographics of Canada's Future Workforce

Conclusion

In conclusion, as you can see, Canada in 2060 will be very different from what it is now. The lives we are living today will most definitely change in 2060, but not necessarily in a bad way. Although there will be a bigger burden on people my age when we become workers, there will be a lot more job opportunities available, as Canada desperately needs job positions filled. The healthcare will also improve as Canada starts to gain more immigrates, which leads to a longer life expectancy. With the immigrants and young aboriginals helping population growth, this will also factor in to sustaining the economy. So overall, I believe 2060 can be year we can all look forward too.