Canada in 2060

Kanika Kathuria

Introduction

Canada is a developed and successful country, with a population of 35 million. Each day we see changes in our nation. So, how much change will see in Canada by 2060? What can we expect? Will we see a drastic change in immigration? How will our demography look like? What is the future of the First Nations? These questions will all be answered as you read further.

Current Immigration

Basic Facts

Canada is a country with people of different cultures and beliefs. On average, Canada accepts about 250,000 immigrants each year and that number has stayed nearly consistent for a while now. Canada chooses immigrants based on how it will benefit their economy. Some mandatory needs that people applying to immigrate to Canada must have are:
  • Education
  • Demand in Canada for their skill
  • Age
  • Can speak English or French
  • Pre-arranged job offer

Types of immigrants

There are 3 different types of immigrants in Canada.

Economic Immigrants:

  • Economic immigrants who are authorized based on what they can contribute to Canada's economy.
  • 2/3 of immigrants are economic immigrants

Family Class Immigrants:

  • Canada also welcomes family class immigrants who are the spouses or partners of people already residing in Canada, or children, parents and grandparents.
  • 1/3 of immigrants are family class

Refugees:

  • Canada accepts refugees who are allowed into Canada for safety if they are at threat in their home country.
  • 1/10 of immigrants are refugees

Where Do Most immigrants come from? And why?

Currently, most immigrants that come to Canada are from China, India and Philippines. Canada chooses people from these countries because most people have the qualifications Canada needs for a better economy. Many people come from China and India because due to the overpopulation they may not be able to get jobs with their skills. Although, China was Canada's greatest source of immigrants previously, Philippines has now become the greatest source of immigrants to Canada. This is because Canada needs more caregivers due to the baby boomers moving towards retirement, and many people from the Philippines are caregivers. Therefore, they meet the requirements of Canada's needs.
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In these pictures we can see where most immigrants come from and the amount of immigrants over the years. In the second photo, we can see that the amount of immigrants has stayed nearly consistent for the past years.

Future Immigration

My prediction

I predict that in 2060 Canada's immigration rate will be much higher. Currently, most of the baby boomers who range from the ages of 45-69 are the most employed. So, in 2060 when most of these people have retired or passed away, there will be a lot of jobs available. Also, Canada will need to spend lots of money on medical care and retirement facilities for the aging population. Therefore, they would need to increase their workers and would look for a younger population to immigrate to contribute. I also believe that taxes will increase due to the money lost to paying for retirement fees and medical care.


Not only, would Canada need immigrants to fill in for mandatory skills needed, they would need them to support the population. This is because since most of Canada's population is the baby boomer generation, when these people pass away, Canada would have a huge decline in population and would rely heavily on immigrants to support the population.

Push and Pull Factors in 2060

These are some factors that may cause people to want to immigrate or to emigrate from Canada in 2060.

Pull Factors:

  • Job availability
  • Health Care
  • Education

Push Factors:

  • Higher taxes
  • Climate

Where will new immigrants live?

I believe that immigrants will continue to live in metropolitan areas such as, Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. People would want to live here as there would be wider job opportunities, more suitable living standards and have better education. Also, these areas are more industrialized and are more likely to give many immigrants a better living environment that they can easily adapt to.
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In these pictures we can see where most immigrants live. As, I previously stated, most of Canada's immigrants choose to live in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec. In the second picture there is a comparison of immigrants in each province from 1993 and 2013. We can see that Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec continue to lead with the most immigrants even after 20 years. Therefore, I believe in 2060 these places will continue to have the most immigrants.

Current Demography

Basic Facts

Birth Rate: 10/1000

Death Rate: 8/1000

Natural Increase: 2/1000

Dependency Ratio: 46/100

Net Migration: 5.65/1000

Total Population Growth: 0.78%

Overall, Canada's birth and death rate are almost the same.

Why is the birth rate so low?

The reason for the declining birth rate is because as Canada develops, women are given more rights, one of them being to get an education. Giving women education gives them a chance to have their own career and having a kid could ruin their career. Hence, women with a higher education choose not to have children. Other reasons for the declining birth rate:

  • Easily Accessible birth control
  • Children are expensive
  • No need for large families in modern society

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In this graph we can see the noticeable decline in birth rate, which refers back to my explanation about the reasoning for the low birth rate.
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In this graph we can see how the death and birth rate have declined over the years and are almost the same now.

Future Demography

My prediction

I predict that the death rate will be higher than the birth rate in 2060. Right now, our birth rate isn't very much higher than the death rate, and Canada already relies on immigration to make up for the low birth rate. Also, in 2060, when most of the baby boomer generation has passed away it will lead to a high death rate. I also believe that our birth rate will remain low due to the reasons previously stated. If we have a low birth rate and high death rate, it would lead to a low natural increase. To prevent this, Canada would rely more on immigrants to support the population.


Also, dependency ratio will increase. This is because in 2060, Canada will have an older population and health care for elderly people costs more than it costs for education for kids. By having a older population it will put stress on the government for the budget of retirement facilities, pensions and medical care. They will also have fewer workers to pay the taxes. So as I stated before, they would have to increase tax prices to overcome this.

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In this graph we can see the current dependency ratios, which is not very high and the predicted dependency ratio. In the predicted dependency ratio we can see that it increases and this is due to the aging population.
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In this population pyramid we can see that the greatest population is between the ages of 45-69, and these are the baby boomers.
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In this picture we have a graph depicting current natural increase and migratory increase, and then we can see the predicted growth between 2011-2061. It is predicted that Canada will have a much higher migratory increase and a very low natural increase. This helps prove my prediction because I assumed that Canada would have a low natural increase due to the baby boomer generation passing away, causing a high death rate and a low birth rate. I also inferred that Canada would rely more heavily on immigrants and the graph shows a very large migratory increase.

First Nations Currently

Who are they?

There are three types of Aboriginals, each who share their own culture and heritage.
  • First Nations
  • Inuits
  • Métis

They are all descendants of the people who first arrived in Canada.

Basic Facts

  • Canada's Aboriginal population has a higher birth rate than non-Aboriginals. This is because Aboriginal women have a higher fertility rate compared to other Canadian women.
  • Median age of Aboriginal people is 28 years, whereas median age of non-Aboriginal people is 40 years
  • There are over 1,400,000 Aboriginals in Canada
  • Aboriginals make up 4.3% of Canada's population

Place of Settlement

Currently, the areas with the most Aboriginals are Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta. Ontario has the largest Aboriginal population, with over 300,000 people, British Columbia has over 230,000 and Alberta closely follows with 220,000.
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In this graph we can see how many Aboriginals live in each province or territory.

Living Conditions

The First Nations currently experience lack of access to clean water, good housing, high unemployment rates and limited access to good health care. In 2010, the unemployment rate for Aboriginal population who lived off reserve was 9.3%, whereas, non-Aboriginals had an unemployment rate of 3.8%. These problems are occurring because the government's first priority has become the non-Aboriginal population. Also, First Nations have not been given enough funding for education, meaning not many people are educated. Due to this many of the First Nations community are in poverty or are suffering.

Stereotypes

  • First Nations are associated with alcoholism
  • They all have long hair
  • Face paint
  • Feathers
  • Free taxes

Indian Act

The Indian Act was made in 1867 and has since gone through many amendments. It was made to protect the First Nations culture and land. Many Aboriginals have different views on the Indian Act. Some prefer it because it gives them some advantages such as free taxes on reserves. Although, to receive free taxes, First Nations must be registered to the Indian Act, giving them an Indian Status. However, First Nations still do have to pay most taxes, just like non-Aboriginals. Some First Nations dislike the Indian Act because they want to have complete freedom and live within the non-Aboriginal community.

First Nations Future

My Prediction

I believe that the living conditions of the First Nations will improve by 2060 and that they will form a good relationship with non-Aboriginals. I assume this because currently, there are many funds being made by non-Aboriginals to help improve the Aboriginal living conditions. Also, people are starting to understand the conditions of Aboriginals through protests being done and from First Nations motivational speakers, such as Wab Kinew. By doing this people are slowly starting to be aware of the conflicts and are starting to do something about. Therefore, by 2060, I believe that the relationship between non-Aboriginals and Aboriginals will improve, and that they will be given more rights.
First Nations Health Authority First in Canada
This video proves my prediction because I assumed that the conditions of the First Nations will improve in 2060, and that they will form a good relationship with the non-Aboriginals. In the video it shows that the First Nations are finally being able to take control and are being prioritized. Moreover, the First Nations are given access to better health care which will be beneficial to many First Nations as they are lacking in that area. This program was also heavily supported by the provincial government even though it was mainly for the First Nations, which shows that the government is finally starting to improve the living conditions of First Nations. Also, it shows that the relationship between non-Aboriginals and Aboriginals is being improved.

How will our lives be different in 2060 compared to our parent's lives right now?

kanikakathuria

My life in 2060 vs my parent's lives currently by kanikakathuria

Conclusion

In conclusion, I believe Canada will go through drastic changes over the years. The immigration, demography and the First Nations will all have big roles to play in Canada's awaiting future. The main changes that I predict Canada will go through are the natural increase declining, however the migratory increase would be much higher to stabilize the population. We will see Canada's dependency ratio increase as well. Also, the First Nations will have a brighter and better future ahead of them.

Citations

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"First Nations Poverty and the Canadian Economy." Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <https://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/commentary/first-nations-poverty-and-canadian-economy>.

News, CBC. "Living Conditions for First Nations 'unacceptable': Fontaine." CBCnews. CBC/Radio Canada, 6 Feb. 2007. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/living-conditions-for-first-nations-unacceptable-fontaine-1.680540>.

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"English Online." Urban Population. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <http://www.english-online.at/geography/world-population/urban-areas.htm>.

"Philippines Was Canada's Greatest Source of Immigrants in 2012." Canadacom. 20 Oct. 2013. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <http://o.canada.com/news/philippines-was-canadas-greatest-source-of-immigrants-in-2012>.

"Selecting Immigrants for Canada's Needs." Selecting Immigrants for Canada's Needs. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <http://cwf.ca/commentaries/selecting-immigrants-for-canada-s-needs>.

"Canada - Population - Historical Data Graphs per Year." Canada - Population - Historical Data Graphs per Year. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ca&v=25>.

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"Population Reference Bureau." Population Reference Bureau. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. <http://www.prb.org/DataFinder/Topic/Rankings.aspx?ind=16>.