The Future of Our Country, Strong and Free.
The following report will acknowledge the following areas
- Demographic changes
- Migratory changes and
- the fate of our First Nation cultures
It is inevitable that the following fields will experience changes of some sort, so read on to see my perspective of what the future will hold!
How will the trends of our births and deaths change?
How will migration patterns to our country be different?
Is there any hope for the indigenous whose stolen home we continue to call our own?
Demography — Births, Deaths and Everything in Between
All developed countries follow a theory known as Demographic Transition (DT), a process displayed through five stages of demographic features (birth and death) on what is known as the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). The five stages start with a high birth and death rate and end with a higher death than birth rate.
Canada is currently in stage 4, meaning there is a low birth (10.28 births per 1000) and death rate (8.42 deaths per 1000) with a natural increase rate of 1.86 per 1000, leading to a pretty stable population. Our current population has a majority on the older side, and this aging dependency load is the effect of the baby boomers, a range of the population born in a rapid pace at the end of WW2 where Canada was a stable place to raise a family after the long war. Today, this is a Westernized country where civil rights such as family planning and equal rights for women are top priority and acutely delivered, both factors of producing less children in a world where babies continue to grow more and more expensive. Eventually, as the birth rate continues to drop, Canada will head into stage 5 where even less people will be born, putting our country in danger of a negative population.
I believe Canada will be in stage 5 of DT in 2060. The birth rate will be 5.6 per 1000 and the death rate will be 6.9 per 1000. This gives us a natural increase rate of -1.3 per 1000. There will be a lower dependency load which will help the economy and the population because there will be an easier lifestyle of normal tax wages for the working age population and normal retirement ages and proper pension distribution due to there being less people to support. A low birth rate determines and changes job opportunities for Canadian workers. Less kids means less child-related jobs, such as schools and child healthcare facilities. The lower birth rate also means less potential members in the then future workforce, which can be a problem, but can be aided by welcoming aboard more immigrants, which brings us to our next topic of discussion.
The picture on the right, a graph called "Factors of population growth, 1994/1995 to 2014/2015, Canada", provided by Statistics Canada, shows factors of population growth from 1994 to 2015 that can be used to analyze trends and infer the future. As you can see, the overall population has gradually started to increase as the natural increase rate produces a negative growth and the net migration rate a positive growth. Less people having babies makes more room for immigrants.
The flyer below, provided by the same source as the graph above, displays an analytic census of the population of 2015. The infographic presents population stats that help support my predictions. The senior portion of the dependency load exceeds that of the junior, which further proves the point that the overall population will enter stage 5 of a negative growth rate.
Immigration — Becoming a Part of Something Big
Canada is a great country filled with benefits and opportunities for those who look and work hard. Immigrants are a big part of the country, making up about 20% People in other parts of the world immigrate to Canada to become a part of the great modern lifestyle and acquire a better lifestyle.
Some specific reasons are:
- lots of immigration possibilities (economic (business class or skilled worker), family, refugee)
- high living standards
- free primary and secondary education + high quality post secondary education
- plentiful job opportunities
- insurance for unemployment and other monetary programs when in need
- pension plans
- free healthcare and other easy to access welfare services
- strong government with strict laws to reinforce safety and justice
- freedom of religion and choice to be whoever you want
- lots of multiculturalism
These benefits may not be provided for people living outside of Canada, or maybe they are living in unsafe conditions. People in need, such as refugees and most immigrants will probably continue coming from mainly Asian countries such as China and India. These underdeveloped places will only continue to grow in population, and needing a place to live since their own country is unable to support all of them, immigrants come to beneficial countries such as Canada where they can acquire many advantages and start a successful life while helping the country's economy and workforce.
Along with this, I believe there will be more lenience towards letting in refugees in need and other types of immigrants in the future due to the lessening population.
Canada already takes in an average of 250 000 immigrants each year and has a pretty high immigration rate that leaves it with a net migration rate of 5.66 migrants per 1000 people. The overall current population growth rate is 0.75% (7.52 per 1000).
I believe the immigration numbers will increase in the next 45 years, double perhaps. The natural population going down means more immigrants will be needed to keep the population going and to fill in empty job positions that there aren't enough Canadians for. The new immigrants will continue to settle in the populated areas of Canada where it is easier for them to transport to from their own countries of origin, such as cities like Toronto, Ontario and Vancouver, BC. These busy areas will provide an easier setting to grow accustomed to where transport and living facilities such as stores and schools are nearby and where they can find people of their own and join ethnic enclaves.
Aboriginals — The Original Canadians
Research from recent articles do not say Aboriginal numbers are low - it's more of the opposite. Aboriginal youth is growing at a pace so rapid that it grows three times as much as the Canadians'. Reasons for this are not just the survivors trying to continue their race, but rather that Aboriginals are not being given or pursuing proper education, causing them to have more children. As the national population ages, more workforce spots open up, but unfortunately out of the few potential members there are, Aboriginal youths are not qualified to work due to their lacking. Unless we better our education system and hone in the Native youth who will undoubtedly make a difference to our socioeconomics, we cannot expect our country to succeed. I believe in 2060 we will have understood this critical issue and dealt with it by helping out the Aboriginal community and presenting everyone with better rights to a better life.
Their own languages not deemed of importance; it's a sad result of Western colonization. This survey, though almost 10 years old, can give you a glimpse of how much worse things have progressed now.
How often do you see symbols of native cultures, such as these Totem poles monuments symbolizing Aboriginal records and memorials?
Aboriginal youths are taking a stand to take their lives back and lead their own ways into this world that once was theirs, but now they will adapt to yet again.
My Life, 45 Years from Now
Canada 2060 by Aaisha
Conclusion: The End of the Beginning?
The new world will be a better place than it was before, where there are better opportunities for everyone and there are people working hard to achieve great things for society and the system doesn't aim to cheat people like in the comic below, something I don't doubt seniors today and my parents will go through due to politics and whatnot. But where there is adversity there is growth, and I hope to see and be a part of a lot of positive growth that not only makes Canada and the rest of the world a better place for those in it, but also a sustainable place for those to come.
- Course notes
- "Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories."Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. Statistics Canada, n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2015.
- "Canada." The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency, n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2015.
- "Top 10 Reasons to Come to Canada ." C.N. Immigration Agency. N.p., 19 Oct. 2015. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.
- "Why Immigrate to Canada? | Immigration Point." Why Immigrate to Canada? | Immigration Point. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.
- "National Household Survey: Aboriginal Population Young and Growing Fast | Toronto Star." Thestar.com. The Star, n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.
- "Canada's Future Depends on Aboriginal Youth [column]." Canada's Future Depends on Aboriginal Youth [column]. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.