Canada 2060

The Future of Our Country, Strong and Free.

45 years from now, what will things be like in this country we call our home? Though environmental changes in Canada are imminent, this report will focus on the more mankind-related aspects of the country that not only affect the civilization of the country but whole world.


The following report will acknowledge the following areas


  • Demographic changes
  • Migratory changes and
  • the fate of our First Nation cultures


It is inevitable that the following fields will experience changes of some sort, so read on to see my perspective of what the future will hold!

Demography — Births, Deaths and Everything in Between

All developed countries follow a theory known as Demographic Transition (DT), a process displayed through five stages of demographic features (birth and death) on what is known as the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). The five stages start with a high birth and death rate and end with a higher death than birth rate.


Canada is currently in stage 4, meaning there is a low birth (10.28 births per 1000) and death rate (8.42 deaths per 1000) with a natural increase rate of 1.86 per 1000, leading to a pretty stable population. Our current population has a majority on the older side, and this aging dependency load is the effect of the baby boomers, a range of the population born in a rapid pace at the end of WW2 where Canada was a stable place to raise a family after the long war. Today, this is a Westernized country where civil rights such as family planning and equal rights for women are top priority and acutely delivered, both factors of producing less children in a world where babies continue to grow more and more expensive. Eventually, as the birth rate continues to drop, Canada will head into stage 5 where even less people will be born, putting our country in danger of a negative population.


I believe Canada will be in stage 5 of DT in 2060. The birth rate will be 5.6 per 1000 and the death rate will be 6.9 per 1000. This gives us a natural increase rate of -1.3 per 1000. There will be a lower dependency load which will help the economy and the population because there will be an easier lifestyle of normal tax wages for the working age population and normal retirement ages and proper pension distribution due to there being less people to support. A low birth rate determines and changes job opportunities for Canadian workers. Less kids means less child-related jobs, such as schools and child healthcare facilities. The lower birth rate also means less potential members in the then future workforce, which can be a problem, but can be aided by welcoming aboard more immigrants, which brings us to our next topic of discussion.


The picture on the right, a graph called "Factors of population growth, 1994/1995 to 2014/2015, Canada", provided by Statistics Canada, shows factors of population growth from 1994 to 2015 that can be used to analyze trends and infer the future. As you can see, the overall population has gradually started to increase as the natural increase rate produces a negative growth and the net migration rate a positive growth. Less people having babies makes more room for immigrants.


The flyer below, provided by the same source as the graph above, displays an analytic census of the population of 2015. The infographic presents population stats that help support my predictions. The senior portion of the dependency load exceeds that of the junior, which further proves the point that the overall population will enter stage 5 of a negative growth rate.

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Immigration — Becoming a Part of Something Big

Canada is a great country filled with benefits and opportunities for those who look and work hard. Immigrants are a big part of the country, making up about 20% People in other parts of the world immigrate to Canada to become a part of the great modern lifestyle and acquire a better lifestyle.


Some specific reasons are:


  • lots of immigration possibilities (economic (business class or skilled worker), family, refugee)
  • high living standards
  • free primary and secondary education + high quality post secondary education
  • plentiful job opportunities
  • insurance for unemployment and other monetary programs when in need
  • pension plans
  • free healthcare and other easy to access welfare services
  • strong government with strict laws to reinforce safety and justice
  • freedom of religion and choice to be whoever you want
  • lots of multiculturalism


These benefits may not be provided for people living outside of Canada, or maybe they are living in unsafe conditions. People in need, such as refugees and most immigrants will probably continue coming from mainly Asian countries such as China and India. These underdeveloped places will only continue to grow in population, and needing a place to live since their own country is unable to support all of them, immigrants come to beneficial countries such as Canada where they can acquire many advantages and start a successful life while helping the country's economy and workforce.

Along with this, I believe there will be more lenience towards letting in refugees in need and other types of immigrants in the future due to the lessening population.


Canada already takes in an average of 250 000 immigrants each year and has a pretty high immigration rate that leaves it with a net migration rate of 5.66 migrants per 1000 people. The overall current population growth rate is 0.75% (7.52 per 1000).


I believe the immigration numbers will increase in the next 45 years, double perhaps. The natural population going down means more immigrants will be needed to keep the population going and to fill in empty job positions that there aren't enough Canadians for. The new immigrants will continue to settle in the populated areas of Canada where it is easier for them to transport to from their own countries of origin, such as cities like Toronto, Ontario and Vancouver, BC. These busy areas will provide an easier setting to grow accustomed to where transport and living facilities such as stores and schools are nearby and where they can find people of their own and join ethnic enclaves.

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Aboriginals — The Original Canadians

It's unfortunate at the least, but it seems to look that our indigenous Aboriginal culture will not fare well in the years to come. It's a good guess their culture will continue to fade if not be eventually wiped out in the coming years. The people will still exist - their numbers have not died out, rather it is their culture that is starting to fade away and grow more and more difficult to pass down in such a diverse country. In fact, The Indian Act probably won't be that big of a deal due to the increase in multiculturalism that causes the Aboriginal culture to fade away. Soon there may not be the option of having special rights because why hang onto the past when there's so much more potential in the future? Some members of the Aboriginal members such as Wab Kinew don't even believe in extra grants; instead we should be working together as equals to move on. But regardless, the overall culture of these people who once were will slowly be wiped out by today's expanding society. It's safe to say that this varying environment will probably produce more Metis people, people of mixed Aboriginal lineage.


Research from recent articles do not say Aboriginal numbers are low - it's more of the opposite. Aboriginal youth is growing at a pace so rapid that it grows three times as much as the Canadians'. Reasons for this are not just the survivors trying to continue their race, but rather that Aboriginals are not being given or pursuing proper education, causing them to have more children. As the national population ages, more workforce spots open up, but unfortunately out of the few potential members there are, Aboriginal youths are not qualified to work due to their lacking. Unless we better our education system and hone in the Native youth who will undoubtedly make a difference to our socioeconomics, we cannot expect our country to succeed. I believe in 2060 we will have understood this critical issue and dealt with it by helping out the Aboriginal community and presenting everyone with better rights to a better life.

Aboriginal Culture versus City Life

Click here for a short glimpse into modern day Aboriginal life.

This short video clip shows how passing down aspects of the Aboriginal culture such as their language is growing more difficult today due to the diverse societal environment in Canada and other Western countries that have become global melting pots. The woman explaining her scarce knowledge and her rudimentary teachings to her son proves that though the numbers are okay, the culture is fading, and this will only continue because there is no going back in time and uncovering their lost traditions. It is a new era in their culture where accepting their Aboriginal identity is the only mark of their nativity that they have access to, and that is a sad fact, that there are little to no roots to turn back to for the people who belonged here first.

My Life, 45 Years from Now

The following short audio clip will give an insight of what I predict my life to be like in my early senior years.

Aaisha

Canada 2060 by Aaisha

Conclusion: The End of the Beginning?

The next 45 years will bring many changes to this country. Our birth and death rates will only continue to decrease as we focus more on unitedly advancing human civilization. This will alter our job opportunities. This will give Canada more availability to house more immigrants, regardless of whether they want to come here or they need to. Immigration patterns won't change much; overpopulated Asian countries such as China and India will continue to send over immigrants who come looking for greater education and job prospects. The indigenous people of Canada will continue to lose their customs and traditions, as it is a difficult thing to keep track of after the Europeans tried to eradicate it when they civilized the land. The fresh Aboriginal youth will play some part in our country's future, but whether it be good or bad depends on the help and support they receive now.


The new world will be a better place than it was before, where there are better opportunities for everyone and there are people working hard to achieve great things for society and the system doesn't aim to cheat people like in the comic below, something I don't doubt seniors today and my parents will go through due to politics and whatnot. But where there is adversity there is growth, and I hope to see and be a part of a lot of positive growth that not only makes Canada and the rest of the world a better place for those in it, but also a sustainable place for those to come.

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Bibliography

The research of the following topics in this article were collected from the following resources:


- Course notes


- "Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories."Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. Statistics Canada, n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2015.


- "Canada." The World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency, n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2015.


- "Top 10 Reasons to Come to Canada ." C.N. Immigration Agency. N.p., 19 Oct. 2015. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.


- "Why Immigrate to Canada? | Immigration Point." Why Immigrate to Canada? | Immigration Point. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.


- "National Household Survey: Aboriginal Population Young and Growing Fast | Toronto Star." Thestar.com. The Star, n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.


- "Canada's Future Depends on Aboriginal Youth [column]." Canada's Future Depends on Aboriginal Youth [column]. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Oct. 2015.