Comparing Estimates

Marie-Sophie Ausch

Introduction

Do you know the population of Austria? Probably not. I surveyed 25 people and asked them for their estimate of the population of Austria. Then, I made a table showing their age, their estimate, and the percentage of them being too high or too low. Lastly, I wrote a paragraph comparing the estimates and explaining why I might think that people estimated in their way.

The Population of Austria

The real answer to the population of Austria is 8,443,018. This is a very accurate number, so even before I began surveying people I predicted that nobody would get that accurate with their estimate.

My Table of Estimates

Comparing the Estimates

Some people that I surveyed estimated too high and some too low. The question is why? Well, 16 people out of 25 estimated too low, so 64%. And 9 people estimated too high so 36 %. I noticed that most 11 year olds were way off with their estimates, for example Dane Baker, 11 years old, estimated 35,000,000 which was 314.54 % too high. Or Kendra Israel, also 11, who estimated 100,000 which is 98.81% too low. A thing that I found weird was that one 11 year old, Ron Laks, was one of the three that had the most accurate estimate, which was 8,500,000, 0.67 % too high. I came up with a conclusion, most of the 11-12 year olds estimate way off because they don't have as much wisdom like for example Ms. Lamos who knows this already.