CANADA IN 2050

WHAT CANADA WILL LOOK LIKE IN THE YEAR 2050

Introduction

Canada is an amazing country with great diversity, a flourishing economy and outstanding people. But what will Canada look like in the year 2050? Will it still be as prosperous and thriving as today or will Canada plunge into an era of hardship and misfortune? This report will outline what is happening in Canada today in reference to immigration, Aboriginals and demographics and what each of these will look like 36 years from now.

ABORIGINALS

Aboriginals currently

Aboriginals discovered the land we live on today and are even seen as the 'founders of Canada'. But as the decades go on their quality of life and impact on Canadian society is steadily decreasing. As of 2011 there has been a recorded population of about 1.4 million Aboriginal people in Canada, that make up about 4.3% of Canada's total population (Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development of Canada). The Aboriginals have also had a sky rocketing population growth that is even growing faster that the non-aboriginal Canadians, they have increased their population by almost 6 times since 1971. A majority of this population growth is happening off of reserves, with 70% of reserves having less that 500 occupants (Statistics Canada, Assembly of First Nations). Reserves are experiencing very little activity because they have terrible conditions compared to the land off of reserves. The First Nation reserves have been suffering the most, with bad health care, failing education systems, poverty stricken neighbourhoods, crime and disease. Aboriginal living conditions over the past decades have dwindled while their population continues to grow at a rapid pace, this can create many issues for the future of Aboriginals in Canada.

Aboriginals 2050

36 years from now in 2050 I predict that the Aboriginals population will begin decreasing with assimilation playing a huge role, also Aboriginal reserves will be sold off to the Canadian government and Aboriginals will reclaim their right of a self government.


Firstly, as the Aboriginal population is at a recent increase they are likely to hit a peak population and begin dramatically reducing population size due to assimilation. One reason for assimilation will be that as the Canadian baby boomers retire there will be a large gap in populations needed to fill in for their jobs, the Aboriginals could easily take their place if educated right. But merging the Aboriginals with the general population in the work force may cause the Aboriginals to be assimilated into the cultures and traditions of non-aboriginal Canadians. This in time dramatically decreasing the population of Aboriginals as generations go by. Secondly, Aboriginal reserves currently have terrible conditions including poverty, bad education, crime and disease, in which a minority of Aboriginals actually live in. As Canadas population flourishes through immigration and other means they will need more land for settlers, with Aboriginals not really occupying their land, the Canadian government may try to buy the reserves off of the Aboriginals although violating various signed treaties. Lastly, the Aboriginals will retain their right of self government. Aboriginals have been living in poverty for the last few decades because the Canadian government has been reluctant to fund schools, health care and other necessities. So in the future the Aboriginals will finally be able to argue their point of why they should be self governed with more valid points, for example, they may argue that their culture is assimilating and many of their treaties like the Comprehensive claim are being violated by Canadian settlers. This could persuade the Canadian government into giving the Aboriginals back self government.


To conclude, I believe that by the year 2050, the Aboriginals population will dramatically decrease due to assimilation, reserves will be sold off to the Canadian government and the Aboriginal people will redeem their idea of self government.

IMMIGRATION

Immigration Currently

Currently Canada has one of the highest rates of immigration in the world, meaning that a majority of people immigrating decide to live in Canada. In the 18 and 1900's many people fled to Canada for a safe haven from war or bad living conditions. In 2011 Canada had about 6.7 million immigrants which made up about 21% of the countries population (Statistics Canada, Immigration and Ethnic Diversity). The growth rate of immigration has recently hit a 0.6% increase each year after the rapid growth from the 1800's (Statistics Canada, Immigration and Ethnic Diversity). A majority of these immigrants are coming from Asia, including countries like China, India and the Philippines (Figure 1) (Statistics Canada, Employment and Social development of Canada). These countries are mainly developing countries with citizens looking for a better life in Canada. Additionally, these immigrants are settling into the major cities of Canada like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal because these cities offer rich diversity and various job opportunities.

Immigration 2050

In 2050 I predict that the population of Canada's immigrants will continue to grow, but at a faster pace and the Canadian government will have to take drastic measures to accommodate the new population size.


First of all, I predict an increase in immigrants because of how diverse Canada is and how this will welcome more people than ever before. Therefore, immigrants would feel as if they could easily practice their own cultures and feel as if they are not being assimilated into the cultures of the general population. Although Canada is under populated in terms of how much land we have for such few people, a majority of Canada is settling into a clustered distribution pattern because most of our land is inhabitable with the Rocky Mountains and the Northern territories. As more people are coming over and settling in the same areas like Toronto or Vancouver, the cities infrastructures will not be able to handle the overload of people. This prompting the government to either cut immigration numbers or boost immigration to other cities and provinces. To cut immigration numbers there must be a sufficient change to the point system, allowing mainly people that are able to contribute to the country is the best option. This leads Canada into accepting many economic immigrants creating a new intervening obstacle towards family class immigrants or refugees. Boosting numbers of immigrants to other provinces would mean that more people would live in rural cities until the city grows to a number where urbanization can flourish. This opening many more jobs and careers for immigrants.


Overall, I believe that Canadas immigration rate will heavily increase by 2050, causing many issues in terms of whether or not cities will reach their maximum capacity, where these people will settle and how the Canadian government will control the outbreak in populations.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Demographics Currently

Canada is a developed country with the current population at about 3.5 million (Statistics Canada, Canadian demographics at a glance). A majority of these citizens are residing in the southern parts of Canada, with provinces like Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec seeing the highest populations. The birth rate is just above the death rate with 10/1000 birth rate and 8/1000 death rate (Index Mundi, Canada Demographic profile), the birth rate being larger tells us that the population is increasing, and at the natural increase rate of 0.2%. Also 81% of the population is urbanized and 19% rural (Index Mundi, Canada Demographics profile), this means that a majority of Canadians are living in an urban setting with most jobs probably being tertiary based. There is a 62% employment rate and 7% unemployment rate for Canadians in the working class, ages 14 - 65 (Statistics Canada, Labour Force Characteristics), a higher employment rate tells us that many Canadians are able to make a living and not many are living in poverty. The average life expectancy for a Canadian female is about 84 years and for a male is 79 years (Index Mudi, Canada Demographics at a Glance). The current fertility rate is about 1.5 children per woman (Statistics Canada, Canadian Demographics at a Glance), this means that the number of children being born are not replacing the previous generation of their parents, this could lead to a damaging population decrease in the future. Finally, only 21% of Canadians are able to speak Canada's second official language of French (Statistics Canada, French and the Francophone in Canada).

Demographics 2050

Based on the current demographics of Canada, I predict that in the year 2050 the total population of Canada will increase, death rate will rise above birth rate, life expectancy will increase and the French speaking population will drop.


Firstly, I believe that the population will increase because Canada is a growing country with lots to offer, but the majority of the increased population will be made of immigrants rather than the general population. Secondly, death rate will rise above birth rate because as the baby boomers begin to die off and the low fertility rates continue, the deaths of this large chunk of the population will override the upcoming births leading the population to dramatically decrease in the future (Figure 2, below). The government could then try to keep the population growing by giving people incentives for having children, but most of the population gap would be filled in with immigrants. Life expectancy will also increase because of Canadas medical and technological advances (Figure 3). With a decreased risk of diseases due to medical advances in the future, the child mortality rate will almost diminish causing more people to pass away at older ages (Figure 4). This is good for Canada's future because higher the age of death means that the country is doing well in terms of health care, which could be a huge pull factor for immigrants. Finally, I predict that in 2050 the number of French speaking Canadians will thoroughly decrease due to assimilation of the culture. Since the population of French speaking Canadians is already such a minority, as more immigrants come to Canada the French Canadians will be over shadowed. Losing the French culture could be a bad for Canada because we would be losing a part of our history.


Overall I believe that Canada in the year 2050 will hold and increase in population, the death rate will rise above birth rate, life expectancy will increase and the French Canadians population will almost vanish.

VIDEO- ABORIGINALS

Jean-Paul Restoule on Aboriginal Education and The Changing Aboriginal Population

Aboriginal education assimilation

This video explains how Aboriginals are being assimilated through education at a First Nations point of view. This is a specific form of assimilation that supports my point as to why Aboriginal populations will decrease. Jean-Paul points out that the Canadian government made an agreement nearly a century ago with the Aboriginals, the agreement stated that the government must provide the Aboriginals with education for the exchange of land and resources. This deal was held up on the Canadian end but not very fairly, the education that Canada provided the Aboriginals was taking away from Aboriginal cultures and assimilating the younger generations into non-aboriginal Canadians culture and lifestyle. Aboriginals are struggling to retain their way of life and teach younger generations their culture and traditions. Overall, this video explains how the Canadian government "conned" the Aboriginals into a deal which ended up assimilating generations, reducing population sizes for aboriginals in the near future. This provided particular and further proof to my point of why Aboriginal populations will begin to decrease due to assimilation in the future. (Video, Restoule Jean-Paul, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education," Jean-Paul Restoule on Aboriginal Education and The changing Aboriginal Population".)

HOW MY LIFE WILL BE DIFFERENT IN 2050

Sana Askary

Canada in 2050 by Sana Askary

CONCLUSION

To conclude, I believe that in the year 2050, Canada will continue on with many of the trends being experienced today, however there will be some major differences that in time will change Canada. The Aboriginals population will drastically decrease due to assimilation and other means. The number of immigrants in Canada will rapidly increase, causing problems in where people will settle and how the government will handle the population overload. Finally, the population of Canada will increase, death rate will over ride births causing significant population problems, also life expectancy will rise and the French Canadian population will diminish.

WORDS CITED

Assembly of First Nations, "Fact Sheet", June 2011, Web.

Index Mundi "Canada Demographics profile", CIA World Factbook, February 2014, Web.

Laboucane Robert, Aboriginal Multi-Media Society "Canada's Aboriginal Crisis", Vol. 28, Issue. 7, 2010. Web.


Restoule Jean- Paul, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education "Jean-Paul Restoule on Aboriginal Education and the changing Aboriginal population", OISE tube, February 2012, Web.


Statistics Canada "Aboriginal and Northern Development of Canada", October 2013, Web.


Statistics Canada "Canadian Demographics at a glance", Catalogue # 91-003-X, January 2008, Web.


Statistics Canada "Ethnic Diversity and Immigration", March 2013 , Web.


Statistics Canada "French and the Francophone in Canada", Catalogue # 98-314-X, January 2014, Web.


Statistics Canada "Labour Force Characteristics", March 2014, Web.