~ What Will Canada Look Like Demographically in 2060? ~
Welcome to my Smore about how Canada will look like demographically in 2060! In this Smore, I will be giving brief outlines of Canada's current immigration and demographic situation, as well as the situation regarding Canada's First Nations, Metis and Inuit (FNMI) community. I will be using graphs, charts and other visuals to help explain different aspects of the Smore. The topics of the distribution of immigrants throughout Canada, Canada's birth rate, death rate, Canada's changing workforce and the Aboriginal community's contributions to it will be discussed and used as strong foundations to build some of my key predictions about how the demographics of Canada in 2060 will change and remain the same. Enjoy!
Canada's Current Immigration Situation
Here is a brief outline of Canada's current immigration situation:
- Majority of Canada's recent immigrants emigrated from Asia.
- Canada's foreign-born population is among the largest in the world.
- Majority of Canada's recent immigrants live in Canada's largest cities, including Toronto, Vancouver and Montréal.
Immigration Trend #1 - From Asia to Africa
The first trend that I am going to discuss in this Smore is where we are seeing most of Canada's recent immigrants emigrating from (as in the general regions, as well as countries).
- Asia is the largest source of recent immigrants who have decided to immigrate to Canada.
Among the 1,162,900 people foreign-born immigrants who arrived between 2006 and 2011, approximately 661,600 (59.6%) came from Asia (including the Middle East) (StatCan, 2011).
- In 2011, around 152,300 (13.1%) of newcomers were born in the Philippines, making it the leading country of where immigrants are coming from (Statcan, 2011).
- It was followed by China, from which approximately 122,100 (10.5%) newcomers arrived from (StatCan, 2011).
- India, from which approximately 121,400 (10.4%) originated from was the third largest (StatCan, 2011).
But what about the remaining portion of immigrants - where are they from?
- The 2011 NHS (National Household Survey) results stated that there was a slight increase in the share of immigration from Africa, the Caribbean, Central and South America.
- Between 2006 and 2011, out of the newcomers during that period, about 145,700 (12.5%) immigrants arrived from Africa (StatCan, 2011). In contrast, individuals born in Africa accounted for only 1.9% of immigrants who arrived prior to 1971 and 7.3% during the 1990s (StatCan, 2011).
- People born in the Caribbean, Central and South America represented 12.3% of all newcomers from 2006 to 2011 but prior to the 1970s, people from these regions accounted for just 5.4% of immigrants (StatCan, 2011).
In conclusion, we're seeing larger numbers of immigrants arriving from Asia than from Africa and its surrounding regions.
Immigration Trend #2 - Canada's CMAs
Immigrants, especially recent arrivals, were much more likely to live in Canada's largest urban centres than those born in Canada.
- Overall, Canada's three largest CMAs (Census Metropolitan Areas) - Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal accounted for 63.4% of the nation's entire immigrant population, as well as 62.5% of recent arrivals (StatCan, 2011).
- Of the three, Toronto had the largest share of all foreign-born in Canada, with 37.4% of all foreign-born. About 2,537,400 immigrants lived in Toronto. They accounted for 46% of Toronto's total population in 2011 (StatCan, 2011).
Fact: Of all immigrants in Toronto, 7 out of 10 have lived in Toronto (StatCan, 2011).
- In 2011, Vancouver was home to 913,300 immigrants which is 13.5% of the total immigrant population. They accounted for 40% of Vancouver's total population in 2011 (StatCan, 2011).
- Montreal was home to 846,600 immigrants, or 12.5% of all immigrants. They accounted for 22.6% of Montreal's total population (StatCan, 2011).
In conclusion, many of those living in Canada's largest urban cities are made up of foreign-born immigrants.
The diverse streets of Downtown, Toronto! So much colour and liveliness!
China Town, Vancouver
Where Chinese restaurants and shops line the streets and where the Chinese cultures and traditions are welcomed and celebrated!
The Montreal GRDU
The GRDU (Urban Diversity Research Group) is a multidisciplinary research team that explores Quebec's diversity, (GRDU Montreal, 2008).
China Town, Vancouver
Immigration Trend #3 - Canada's Immigration Reputation
With these great immigration numbers, Canada must have one of the largest proportion of foreign-born populations in the world.
- Among the Group of Eight (G8) Countries, which refers to the group of eight highly industrialized nations (Zachary Laub, 2014), Canada has the largest proportion of foreign-born population, 20.6% (StatCan, 2014).
- This was well above the shares in Germany, which was 13% in 2010 and the United States, with 12.9% in 2010 (StatCan, 2014).
- However, outside of the G8 countries, Canada falls into second place behind Australia's 26.8% total population born outside of the country (StatCan, 2014).
In conclusion, as a G8 country, Canada's large population of those born outside of the country gives it the title of having the largest proportion of foreign-born populations in the world.
Key Predictions - Immigration in 2060
As Canada's immigration progresses, there will be many changes regarding Canada in 2060. Asia is currently the largest and main source of immigration in Canada but as we're seeing a great increase in immigration numbers from Africa, as well as the Caribbean, Central and South America, one of my key predictions is that the amount of people deciding to immigrate to Canada from those regions will begin to increase rapidly and may even become the largest source of immigration. As for the reputation we have as the nation with the largest foreign-born population out of the G8 countries, I believe we'll still be able to keep that title due to our strong immigration. Because Canada's large urban cities will become increasingly overpopulated, recent newcomers will be almost forced to reside in smaller cities and towns. However, this allows for a new reason/pull factor for immigration - those with the required special work skills and experience will be able to join the labour market in areas where it's a new necessity and to aid the aging population medically. In conclusion, some of the areas where we will be seeing changes in Canada's future are where the immigrants are coming from, where they will be residing and the reasons they are immigrating as well as the impacts they will have on Canada as a whole.
Population Trend #1 - Canada's Birth Rate
When the topic of Canada's population is discussed, the subject of our birth rate is extremely relevant.
- The fertility rate in Canada has actually declined slightly to 1.61 children per woman of childbearing years in 2011 from 1.68 children per woman in 2008 (Sarah Boesveld, 2014).
- The birth rate in Canada was 11.3 births/1000 people in 2009, 11.1 births/1000 people in 2010 and rested at 11.0 births/1000 people in 2011 (StatCan, 2013).
In conclusion, Canada's overall birth rate and fertility rate are decreasing as the years go by.
Population Trend #2 - Canada's Death Rate
Another important trend in Canada is how the death rate is progressing and how it is affecting the country.
- The death rate in Canada was 7.1 deaths/1000 people in 2007, 7.2 deaths/1000 people in 2008 and 7.1 deaths/1000 people in 2009 (StatCan, 2013).
In conclusion, the current death rate in Canada is remaining relatively stable and consistent.
Population Trend #3 - Average Growth Rate
The last population trend I am going to discuss about is how dependent Canada truly is on immigration to stabilize and increase the population overtime.
- Statistics Canada (2015) projects that immigration will not only continue to be a key driver of population growth in the coming year.
- Without it, Canada’s population growth could be close to zero in 20 years, as the population continues to age and fertility rates projected to remain below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman (StatCan, 2015).
In conclusion, immigration is a key factor in helping Canada progress, demographically in the future.
Key Predictions - Population in 2060
The key predictions for Canada's demographic changes in 2060 are quite straight forward and clear. Over the years, Canada's overall population will begin to slowly decrease due to the lowering birth rate and fertility rate, as well as the consistent death rate. However, although the death rate is stable for now, I believe that it will begin to increase steadily in the future due to our aging population. In conclusion, Canada's population numbers will be significantly smaller compared to the current ones.
FIRST NATIONS, METIS & INUIT
Canada's Current Situation with The Aboriginals
Here is a brief outline of Canada's current situation with the First Nations, Metis & Inuit:
- The Aboriginal population in Canada is growing steadily and rapidly compared to the Non-Aboriginal population in Canada.
- Canada's Aboriginal community is relatively young.
- The number of Aboriginals with high levels of education is quickly increasing.
FNMI Trend #1 - The Growing Community
The First Nations, Metis and Inuit population, also known as the Aboriginal population in Canada is growing rapidly, compared to the Non-Aboriginal population.
- The Aboriginal population increased by 232,385 people or 20.1% between 2006 and 2011, compared with 5.2% for the non-Aboriginal population (StatCan, 2013).
- New data from the National Household Survey (NHS) show that 1,400,685 people had an Aboriginal identity in 2011, representing 4.3% of the total Canadian population (StatCan, 2013).
- Aboriginal people accounted for 3.8% of the population enumerated in the 2006 census, 3.3% in the 2001 census and 2.8% in the 1996 census (StatCan, 2013).
In conclusion, the First Nations, Metis and Inuit population in Canada is a steadily growing community.
FNMI Trend #2 - Average Aboriginal Age
The next trend that will be discussed in this Smore is the ages of the Aboriginal citizens in Canada. Overall, the population is relatively young.
- In Canada 2006, the median age (the exact age where half the population is older and half is younger) of the entire Aboriginal population was 27 years of age compared to the median of 40 years of age for the non-Aboriginal population (StatCan, 2010).
- The Metis population had the highest median age at 30 years, while the Inuit population had a median age of 22 years (StatCan, 2010).
- First Nations people fell in between with a median age of 25 years (StatCan, 2010).
In conclusion, the First Nations, Metis and Inuit population, on average, is younger than the Non-Aboriginal population in Canada.
FNMI Trend #3 - Education and Economy
The last trend regarding the First Nations, Metis and Inuit population is how quickly the number of individuals with high level education is becoming.
- Joe Friesen (2013) stated in his The Globe And Mail article that the number of Aboriginal people with university degrees has nearly doubled over the past decade, yet the gap in education levels between aboriginal and other Canadians has only grown wider.
- Friesen (2013) also wrote that over the next 10 years, aboriginal young people will make up a significant portion of new entrants in the labour market.
- Whether they enter as skilled workers with post-secondary qualifications or as high-school dropouts will have an impact on Canada’s economy, particularly in parts of Western Canada, where the labour supply is tight and aboriginal populations are concentrated, says Joe Friesen (2013) in his article.
In conclusion, the FMNI community is already becoming increasingly educated with post-secondary qualifications which will lead them to become skilled workers in the labour market.
Key Predictions - FMNI Community in 2060
The future of the First Nations, Metis and Inuit population in Canada will also be seeing some key differences. Because of the increasing amount of young and well-educated Aboriginal residents in Canada, they will soon represent a great number of the much needed skilled workers in Canada. Due to their increasing responsibilities and independence as a modernizing community, they will be placing little to no reliance on the Non-Aboriginal population for funds or even financial aid by 2060. Overall, the First Nations, Metis and Inuit population will contribute greatly to the Canadian economy as skilled workers and a rapidly growing community overtime.
In conclusion, by 2060, Canada will be seeing a lot of overall changes. From the shifting areas of where we're seeing most of our newcomers arrive from to the impact that the young and growing Canadian Aboriginal community will have on the economy in the future, those and all the topics in between will become real situations and issues in the near future. I hope you enjoyed reading and perhaps, learning from this Smore just like I did while making it!
Sites used in this Smore: