Canada in 2050?

Selina Ali

Introduction

Canada a beautiful, peaceful, multicultural, society which we happen to live in, but can we say the same about this county in 2050? What will happen to our population, first nations, and our immigrants? No one can really knows for sure, but based on statistics and facts as well as our past, we can make realistic predictions as to what will happen 36 years from now. In this report, you will find out my predictions for 2050 and how Canada's immigration, demographics and first nations societies will change from what they are now currently.

Demography

Statistics


  • In Canada, the population was 35,158,300 as of 2013(Statistics Canada) (“Population by year, by province and territory), over time this population has grown more than 20 million from 1946 to 2006, starting at 12.3 million in 1946 and increasing to 32.6 million in 2006. (Canadian Demographics at a Glance/11)


  • In 1970, stood at a 7.4 per 1000 people, compared to other developed countries this death rate was fairly low for example, the United States of America, whose crude death rate was a 9.4 in 1970. After 1970, Canada's death rate went from 7.4 to 7 in 1990. Over the next ten years the death rate stayed the same, until 2000. In 2005 the crude death rate increased to 7.3, by 2012 7.6 was the crude death rate. (Gapminder)(“world”).


  • From 1926 to 2005 both male and female life expectancy has gained 20 or more years, with female life expectancy at 82.7 years and the male life expectancy at 78.0 years in 2005. (Canadian Demographics at a Glance/21). Canada has one of the highest life expectancy in the world; in 2003 our life expectancy rate was about 2 years higher than out neighbor to the south, the United States of America. (Canadian Demographics at a Glance/22)


  • In 1951 to 1961, Canada`s natural increase was at a peak ,reaching a little less than 2%, since then, the natural increase rate has significantly dropped. In 1991 to 2001, the natural increase rate had dropped to around 0.5%. (Statistics Canada)(“ Population growth in Canada: From 1851 to 2061")

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Predictions

Population:

In 2050, I predict that the population will increase. I think this because, since the population has made such a big increase over the last couple of years, it would be highly unlikely for it to decrease. Although I believe that our population will increase, I predict that the main source from which Canada's population will grow, will be from immigrants rather than births. I think this because, with the natural increase rate dropping, and the immigration rate bringing in more immigrants (explained in Immigration). Canadian population will increase, but will be made up of mostly immigrants.

(Canadian Demographics at a Glance/11)

As you can see from this graph, the overall population of Canada has been increasing over the years starting from 1851 and moving to 2011. With this trend, it is easy for one to predict that the population will increase by following the trend (overall increase).

Fertility and mortality rate:

In 2050, I believe that the mortality rate will be higher than the birth rate. I think this because, due to the baby boom in 1959, many of the people from that generation will be dying around 2030-2050. Due to the high and still increasing life expectancy, many of the people born in 1959 will be able to live until around 2050, before passing away thus, increasing the mortality rate. I think the fertility rate will decrease, due to the fact that over time, Canadians have been deciding to have fewer children, therefore, the natural increase rate will decrease as well, and the overall fertility rate is decreasing as well.

(Canadian Demographics at a Glance/15)

In this graph, you can see the fertility rate and death rate of Canada dating back to 1926. As the fertility rate decreases, the mortality rate increases, therefore making both the rates closer together, in 1959, you can see a dramatic increase in the fertility rate due to the “baby boom”. From 1960 and on, the fertility rate drops and the death rate rises. If this trend were to continue, the outcome would be more deaths than births as shown on the right portion of the graph.

Immigration

Statistics


  • Today, many of the people emigrating to Canada come from China, in 2012, 33,018 immigrants came to Canada, from China. (Government of Canada)(“Statistics”). In fact, from 2001 to 2006, more than 60% of the 252,000 immigrants admitted in to Canada, where from Asia, 10.5% of the immigrants were from Africa. Europe had accounted for 16.4% of the immigrants and South America accounted for 9.1 %.In 1961-1966, Africans made up only 3.0% of the immigration population of Canada. Places like South America and Africa have underwent this increase, while places like Europe, have had a decreasing immigration population coming to Canada (1961-1966=74.7%, 2001-2006=16.4%). (Canadian Demographics at a Glance/28/29)


  • Today, most of the immigrants that come to Canada, settle in Ontario. In 2012, 99,154 immigrants settled in Ontario, whereas, in the rest of the provinces, less than 60,000 immigrants moved to any other province, but, this population immigrating to Ontario is slowly decreasing, even though it is the highest in Canada, in 2003, 119,723 immigrants moved to Canada. Places like Alberta have had an increasing immigrant population since 2003, gaining 20,253 immigrants between 2003 and 2012. (Government of Canada)(“Facts and figures”)


  • As of 2006, the immigration rate of Canada was at 8, meaning 8 immigrants per 1 thousand people in Canada; this rate has remained more or less consistent since the 1990’s. (Canadian Demographics at a glance/28).

Predictions

Immigration Rate:

In 2050 I predict that the immigration rate will remain consistent, I think this because, ever since the 1990’s the immigration rate has been about the same, ranging from 5-10 immigrants per 100 people. Also the immigration rate of this time hasn't had a particular trend, the rates have decreased and increased (at a small scale) yearly, but have stayed rather consistent the whole time. So, without a particular and big increase or decrease, the immigration rate is likely to continue to be around this range.

(Canadian Demographics at a Glance/28)

This graph shows the immigration rate (black line) and the number of immigrants entering Canada each year. As you can see, the immigration rate was increasing and decreasing drastically from 1900-1960, towards the 1970’s the immigration rate started to remain somewhat constant, in 1990, the immigration rate was even steadier. Therefore, due this steady rate, I predicted that the rate would continue to remain consistent and more or less constant.

Province of Settlement

In 2050, I believe that that the places immigrants move to will change, I believe that Ontario will continue to obtain a large portion of the immigrants, but, this amount will decrease. Due to the slight decreasing trend of immigrants in Ontario, I believe that immigrants will settle in other provinces, such as Alberta. I think this because; overtime, as the population of immigrants decrease in Ontario, the immigrant population in other places will increase. I believe that Alberta will soon obtain most of the immigrants due to the increasing amount of immigrants already settling there.

Country of Origin:

In 2050, I believe that people will still come from Asian countries at a large, but, Africa and South America will being having more emigrants, I think this because, within 35 years, the percentage of immigrants coming from South America increased by 5.1% and the African immigration population increased by 7.5%. This increasing trend shows that more people are coming from Africa and South America. I also believe that by the year 2050, less people will be immigrating to Canada from Europe. I think this because, during this 35 year time period, the amount of immigrants coming from Europe decreased a massive 58.3%, following this trend; the amount of immigrants from Europe is likely to decrease even more.

(Canadian Demographics at a Glance/29)

This Figure shows the amount of immigrants coming to Canada from other countries. The first number shows the percentage in 1961-1966 and the second number shows the percentage in 2001-2006. If you look at Europe, you can see the drastic drop in the amount of immigrants coming to Canada, but in Africa and South America, you can see how the amount of people coming to Canada from these places are increasing over the 35 year time period.

Aboriginal Groups

First Nations


  • There are 851,560 First Nations people living in Canada as of 2011, this amount makes up 60.8% of the 1.4 million Aboriginals living in Canada. The First Nations make up 2.6% of Canada’s overall population. Between 2006 and 2011, the number of First Nations in Canada grew by 156,525 people, or 22.9%.(Statistics Canada)(“Analytical products,2011”)

  • The First Nation population growth was the highest out of all the major aboriginal groups in Canada, as of 2006-2011, the population growth rate was at 22.9%. (Employment and Social Development Canada)(“Aboriginal Population”)

Prediction:

In 2050, I believe that the population of First Nations will increase. I think this because, due to the increase of over 150,000 people between the years 2006-2011 this increasing trend, shows that the First Nation population is likely to increase by the year 2050. Also, I believe that due to the high population growth rate of the First Nations, the population is more likely to increase.

Métis

  • In 2006, there were 390,000 Métis people living in Canada. Over the last decade, this population almost doubled (91%) due to the high birth rates. (Labour Program)(“Designated group profiles”) In 2011, the Métis population then increased to 451,795 (Statistics Canada)(“Analytical Products 2011”)
  • Between the years 2006-2011, the population growth rate of the Métis was 16.3, the lowest of 3 major groups, Inuit, First Nations and Métis. (Employment and Social Development Canada)(“Aboriginal Population”)

Prediction:

Based on the facts give, I believe that the population of Métis will continue to increase by the year 2050, but not as much as it did in the past. I think this because, even if the population grew by 91% in the past, the population growth rate was not as high but, the population did grow more than 50,000 between the years 2006-2011. Therefore, the population will grow, but not as fast.

Inuit

  • In 2006, the Inuit population was 50,000 between the years 1996-2006, this population grew 26%. The Inuit population accounted for 4% of the overall, aboriginal population. (Labour Program)(“Designated Group Profile”) In 2011 the Inuit population grew to 59,445. (Statistics Canada)(“Analytical Products 2011”)
  • Between the years 2006-2011, 18.1 was the population growth rate for Inuit’s, the second highest of the 3 major Aboriginal groups, First Nations, Métis and Inuit’s. (Employment and Social Development Canada)(“Aboriginal Population”)

Prediction:

In 2050, I believe that the Inuit population will increase, I think this because, in the past (1996-2006) the population did grow a significant amount, of 26%, but in 2006-2011, also, the population did grow from 2006- 2011, by 9,000 people. I also believe the population will grow, due to the population growth rate of 18.1, the second highest of the 3 major Aboriginal tribes.

(Employment and Social Development Canada)(“Aboriginal Population”)

This Graph shows the Aboriginal population growth of 5 major groups in Canadian society form 2006-2011. As you can see, the First Nations had the highest population growth out of the 5 groups; therefore, it would be most likely for the First Nation population to grow in size. Next is the Inuit group, whose population did seem to be growing significantly since 1996. And finally the Métis, this group does not have a very high population growth rate, but does seem to be growing in size slightly.

Aboriginal Employment rate:

· In 2009, the employment rate for the Aboriginal population was 57%, 4.8 points lower that the non-aboriginal employment population (61.8%). In 2008, this gap was at 3.5%. (Statistics Canada)(Aboriginal Peoples)

· In 2008, the unemployment rate was 10.4% and rose to 13.9%, whereas the non-Aboriginal population`s unemployment rate, raised from 6.0 %to 8.1%.(Statistics Canada)(Aboriginal Peoples)

· In 2011, the unemployment rate dropped very slightly, at a 13% from a 13.9 in 2008.(Aboriginal Affairs, and Northern Development Canada)(“Fact Sheet - 2011 National Household Survey Aboriginal Demographics, Educational Attainment and Labour Market Outcomes”)

Education:

· Less than half of the aboriginal population (working age) had a post secondary degree. (Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada)(“statistics”)

· 29% of the aboriginal population (working age) has an education standard of less than high school. (Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada)(“statistics”)

Prediction:

I predict that in 2050, the unemployment rate will rise compared to what it is today. I think this because, due to the lack of education that the Aboriginal population has, many will not be able to obtain a job. Due to the past increasing aboriginal unemployment rate as well, one can see the natural increasing trend. Also, with Aboriginals obtaining less degree’s and immigrants and non-aboriginals obtaining a higher degree of education, the chances of aboriginals obtaining a job and even slimmer, that being said, I predict that many Aboriginals will go in to other jobs, which requires training, for example, trade, fishing, and even mining.

(Statistics Canada)(“Aboriginal Peoples”) this picture shows the decreasing employment rate of the Aboriginal population compared to the non-aboriginal population. As you can see, while the non-aboriginal population has been going up only slightly, the Aboriginal population has been decreasing going up from 2007-2008, but then dropping from 2008-2009.

(Employment and Social Development Canada)(“Aboriginal Programs”) this picture shows the amount of aboriginals working in the mining, oil and gas extraction industry. As you can see, this rate has been increasing over the past about 4 years. This shows that even though many aboriginals don’t have a high education degree, or maybe no degree at all, many have been going in to the mining, oil and gas labor force. (industries that don't require a college, or university degree.)

Video

Improving First Nations participation in the Canadian workforce

This video helps prove my point, that aboriginal people will be included in the trades, fishing, mining and construction industries more because, in this video, Lisa Shingoose explains how Canada`s Economic Action Plan is trying to include Aboriginal people in to the work force by providing them with the training they need in order to be successful in the trades and other similar industries. She talks about how many of the Aboriginals don’t have many opportunities in regards to employment and with this Economic Action Plan; we are able to start increasing Aboriginal participation in the workforce in Canada.

Selina_2050

Sounds from Thursday night by Selina_2050

Conclusion

In conclusion, based on Canadian Demographics, Aboriginal`s people, and Immigration, our future is more or less looking up. With our population and life expectancy increasing, our immigration rates increasing, and our Aboriginal population increasing we can say that Canada should be doing well in 2050, but in order to stop things like the low employment rates for the Aboriginal`s people, we must realize that Canada can be a better place for everyone, if we do something about it.

Bibliography

Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis and Inuit. Statistics Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


Aboriginal Peoples. Statistics Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.

“Canadian Demographics at a Glance.” Statistics Canada. Print


Canadians in Context - Aboriginal Population. Employment and Social Development Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


Facts and Figures 2012 – Immigration Overview: Permanent and Temporary Residents. Government of Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


"Fact Sheet - 2011 National Household Survey Aboriginal Demographics, Educational Attainment and Labour Market Outcomes." Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


Figure 1 Observed (1851 to 2011) and projected (2011 to 2061) annual average growth rate, natural increase and migratory increase in Canada per intercensal period. Statistics Canada. 2012-12-06. Web. 20 Mar.2014


First Nations job numbers 'appalling', economist says. CBA News Saskatchewan. Jan 21, 2013 9:00 PM CT. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


Gapminder World. Gapminder. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


Population by Year, by Province and Territory (Number). Government of Canada, Statistics Canada. Web.20 Mar. 2014.


Population Growth (annual %) .Data.Web.20 Mar. 2014.


Push and Pull Factors. O Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.


Table 3 Distribution of First Nations People, First Nations People with and without Registered Indian Status, and First Nations People with Registered Indian Status Living on or off Reserve, Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2011.


Statistics Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2014.