What will Canada look like in 2060?

By, Widad Junaid

Why am I reading this smore?

In 2060, Canada will be different, in various ways; I will explain how and why the demography of Canada will change. The change in demography in Canada will affect the current and future citizens of Canada; including the immigrants and the Aboriginals. It will be my job to help inform you on the future of Canada, as it may possibly rest in your hands.

Immigration

Country of Origin

Immigrants are very important to Canada, our very first prime minister, John A. McDonald, had been an immigrant from Scotland himself. Immigrants help make up our population and fill our jobs.

Canada's immigration before 1971 was mostly from Europe (78.3%). Although, in 2006-2011, most immigrants came from Asia (56.9%), while the number of immigrants to Canada from Europe dropped to 13.7%. Asia had begun to immigrate to Canada a lot more because, Asia is over-populating and they are doing anything they can to lower their population such as, decreasing the number of children in a family to only one child. Asia has now come to Canada to have more than one child, without breaking the law, or they have come for the space and the lower population density.

I think in the future, Canada's immigration will continue to grow higher because, of the growing population happening in countries around Canada. More likely from Asia because, the comparison between Asia's population (4.3 billion in 2013) with Canada's population (35.16 million in 2013) is very different and it is unlikely for the difference to change.

Immigration Rate

Canada's immigration rate has been roughly the steady in the last 24 years. This could be because Canada chooses a certain amount of immigrants that can be admitted into Canada per year. The lowest the immigration rate had ever been was 174,195 in 1998, while the highest it had ever been was 280,687 in 2010. There are various reasons why Canada's immigration rate had been low in 1998, for instance; the population issues had not been for major, or that they were happy where they lived. There was a spike in the immigration rate in 2010, because the actual number of immigrants admitted to Canada in 2010 was 280,700, slightly exceeding this target range set. This happened for a number of reasons; a number of economic immigrants admission that was announced midyear, increase in number of refugees admitted into Canada from damages from the earthquake on Haiti, and a number of other factors. Although, Canada seems to be keeping a leveled immigration rate after the spike that occurred in 2010.

There is uncertainty in the immigration rate for Canada in the future because no one is ever 100% certain when a natural disaster will occur in the next 46 years, when the refugee class will spike the immigration rate, or when the countries around Canada will over populate and we will need to enlarge our number for immigrants admitted to Canada. One thing for sure, if our immigration rate does change, it would most likely grow and increase rather than decrease.

Province of Settlement

Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver have been known to be called, the "big three." Most of Canada's new immigrants are attracted to these cities according to 2006 census data on immigration. Out of the 1.1 million immigrants who entered Canada in between 2001-2006, about 70% settled in one of the "big three." The most cited reason for settling in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver, according to a survey of immigrants, was to join the social support networks of family and friends.

In the future, I think immigrants will continue to come to Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver because, these places have very nice weather (hot summers, cold winters) unlike the territories and Nunavut who are north of us. Also, these places are fairly large by size, as well as the size of the community; this can supply the immigrants with a large variety of choices for education, and give them a lot more job opportunities.

Pull Factors

There are many amazing reasons to move to Canada, such as the large community, or the education and different resources for education. In undeveloped countries unlike Canada, they may not have the proper resources for their education such as text books and proper lunch meals for students. We also have many jobs to offer, as immigration can fill in the jobs that Canada cannot on its own. Canada is also very multi cultural, we have many places to encourage different religions, such as religious schools, mosques, churches, we even have restaurants that serve different culture foods, and shops that sell clothes for different cultures.

The future may be different, I have faith that other countries will start to slowly progress into becoming developed countries, although I don’t know if this will be possible by 2060. Canada will not lose all their resources for their education, size, and jobs. To lose all this, our population would need to over flow; Canada has a low birth rate meaning it has a low population growth rate, although this is fixed with immigrants. Immigrants bring up our population without exceeding our population limit, because we have a number set for how many immigrants can be admitted into Canada. Also, I think Canada will always remain a multicultural country, nothing can break that. We will always be open to anyone, from any country, and open to the different cultural backgrounds they bring.

Push Factors

Canada is not all great; we do have problems as any country would. Poverty is one of the problems Canada faces. More than one in ten Canadians between the ages of 18 and 65 live in poverty. More than one in seven Canadian children lives in poverty. Another problem is voter turnout; only 53.8 per cent of adult Canadians voted in the 2011 federal election—the second-lowest turnout in history. Just above half of the population comes to vote, is this really a peoples government? We may have a choice, but who is really choosing? Also, income inequality is a problem as well. Since 1990, the richest group of Canadians has increased its share of total national income, while the poorest and middle-income groups has lost share.

Canada may fix some of these problems, they may not. Some of these problems may be easily fixed, such as voter turnout; that’s more of the citizens’ fault for not paying attention to politics and news to vote. Others may be tough to handle, such as poverty. Poverty is a very big problem in many countries, if Canada can be one of the few countries with a 0% poverty rate, we can be an example to other countries and we may be a step closer to a poverty free world.

First Nations

Present First Nations

First Nations are the people who had discovered Canada. They are a group of Aboriginal people who share the same culture and heritage; they are referred to status and non status Indians. First nations are different from both, Métis and Inuit. Métis are people of aboriginal and European decent, and Intuits are the aboriginals of the arctic. The largest current problems for first nations are stereotypes. first nations have to fight many stereo types such as, "why do you guys where your hair long?", Wab Kinew help inform us on this by telling us some grow their hair long and straight to express their cultural pride, although some were encouraged to cut their hair if curly. another would be, "what are you guys doing with your 7 billion dollars?" again Wab Kinew help keep us informed, the 7 billion dollars help give a large numbered population, the same size as new Brunswick, with food, shelter, and education. Although New Brunswick has 8 billion dollars, yet no one ever asks New Brunswick what they do with their 8 billion.

Future First Nations

I believe that in the future, Canadians will look at first nations as they are our equals. In history, we had the same problem with different races (between black and whites), but now we don't care about where you're from or what race you are. I think that in the future, history will repeat itself; we will stop lowering their status and look at them as equals. First nations are people who will help us in the future. It seems we are too busy using stereo types to realize that they are over all the issues from the past. I believe that by the year 2060 we will have realized that they are our equals but with a different history.

Demography

Birth Rate

Canada's birth rate in 2013 was 1.61. Canada has dropped its birth rate severely in the last 52 years. In 1960, Canada's birth rate had been 3.81. This could be for a number of reasons; the common decision some women have made recently of not having kids to focus on studies or their jobs. For every 100 adults there are only 80 children — a drop of 20 per cent in a generation. Baby boomers are a significant generation in our populations past. The baby boomers are from 1946 to 1965). They could be a problem, because they are the largest generation Canada’s seen in the last century. If one generation is always bigger than the next, then how will we make a school big enough for them or give them jobs or help them retire when they outnumber the generation above them and the generation below them. When we need them to get jobs we won’t have enough jobs for everyone because they outnumber the previous generation and the previous number of jobs. This will leave many people on the streets, but when they retire, the next generation is much smaller meaning they can fill in many jobs that the baby boomers have left free. But where will the baby boomers go? There are too many to elders retired at the same time area. It is not changeable; one generation will always be larger.

This may affect the future because; the baby boomers will be 95+. The affect on the generations after them will be major. Number of people in retirement versus the dependency load is a very large difference. In the future, the birth rate will be low because of the decision women have made about how they would hold off on having kids to focus on their education and jobs. This will end in a lower generation below. Meaning by 2060, there won’t be much of a dependency load. With the dependency load much smaller than the retired, how will we support the retired (the baby boomers)? As it shows in the picture, it is a hippo representing the baby boomers, and the small dogs that have gone through earlier have easily gone through the small hoop that the circus man is holding. While the hippo (who represents the many baby boomers) is about to go through the hoop that is being held by the circus performer is much too small for the hippo. This represents how the previous generations had gone through the opportunities provided easily, while that baby boomers will not be able to fit in the society because there are too many of them and there won't be enough jobs and schools and homes for everyone.

Death Rate

Canada’s death rate, from 2013, is 7 (per thousand). This is not one of Canada’s major problems. Our death rate is very good for now. We are not decreasing are population quickly, and we are not having too long of a life expectancy that we won’t have enough resources. Canada's life expectancy is 81.4 years (2013). We do not live for too short of a period, as our history shows; we did not live very long for many reasons such as war and diseases. Our longer life expectancy has given us a healthier community with more workers. If we lived for too long; we may have too many mouths to feed, and the ratio of who works to who does not may not match up.

I don’t think there will be any major differences in the future. The biggest difference for the future could be that we may get a longer life expectancy, because scientists may have found cures for some major life threatening diseases such as cancer. This may also change our death rate, making it lower. This could be a repeat of history and give us more workers and a later time to retire.

Population Growth

Canada’s population growth rate is 1.08% (2014). Canada is very stable when it comes to its population. Canada does not have an over growing population, nor a very low population. China has a population growth of 0.51%. This is because they have a law of 1 child per family. Many immigrants do not come to china because of that law and because it very over populated.

I don’t think Canada will ever resort to such a desperate decision because we have a very low natural increase, and is fixed using immigrants, immigrants who then fill in the jobs. The immigrants will not cause the population to over flow because; Canada has a limit of how many immigrants may come to Canada per year. If we exceed that limit we may have a problem but I don’t think by the year 2060 Canada will have such a problem.

widad54

How will my life be different in the year 2060 than the life my parents currently have in Canada? by widad54

Conclusion

In 2060, Canada will get a higher immigration rate, probably from Asia, and we will begin to look at First Nations as equals, and we will continue to fight the issue with baby boomers, and not much will change, hopefully, in the next 45 years.