Canada in 2060

How will Canada look like in 2060? By Hasan Al Ahmad

Introduction

Canada is a country with a rapidly growing economy but how will it look like in 44 years? We are not completely certain but we can figure out how it may look with current trends that give us clues to what the future will look like. It is not all about fancy cars or new technology that can be predicted but three important topics which change rapidly over time. The three topics are Immigration, Demography and Aboriginals.
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BASIC TERMS

Immigration

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Someone who leaves their home country to live in another country (for a long time or forever)

Demography

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Study of statics in terms of births, deaths, structure of the human population and change in population overtime

Aboriginals

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People who first settled into Canada composing of mostly Inuit, Métis, and First Nations with most currently in reserves.

Immigration To Canada

Canada receives roughly 250,000 immigrants each year! Wow! That is a ton of people who cannot stand their home country or need to live in Canada!


Possible Harder Immigration Laws

In 2060, the number will increase but since there will be a ton of people already in Canada, the laws with immigration might get tighter since it already is and for some it can take months to have an opportunity to immigrate. They could have a harder time getting in with the amount of people coming in and living in Canada.

On the other hand, Canada could be improving a ton and may require much more people for jobs and since it is a usually safe country, people would want to immigrate to Canada. These reasons are why economic immigrants would want to immigrate to a country.


Family Immigrants

A ton of people would want to reunite with their families especially since some countries are heading towards overpopulation leading to an influx of family immigrants sponsored by a relative.


Refugees

Unfortunately, the world keeps changing and we cannot figure out how wars will structure and hopefully not a ton occur in the next 44 years. If said wars do occur, a huge influx of refugees will be arriving in Canada especially since Canada welcomes them a ton today (with Syrian refugees) and will possibly be accepting much more if said wars do occur in other countries. With technology changing in the future and more countries improving, less wars may occur leading into a decrease of refugees.

Push and Pull Factors

Now obviously the reason anyone would come to Canada is for the pull factors which will not change a lot in the next 44 years as the safeness of Canada, job opportunities and education are the key reasons people come to Canada. They also want to leave their country because of push factors that include dangerous areas, unemployment, overpopulation or sometimes a natural disaster/ war.

It is obvious that the immigration rate will increase as Canada is a good country for people who want safety and a improved life but where would these immigrants come from?


Where people come from/ stay in

Since we know most come from Asia and some from Europe at the moment, it will probably stay that way in 2060. Most people will want to live in large cities and urban areas for good job opportunities and education for themselves/ children. They will live in provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia as those provide the best opportunities for immigrants.


Conclusion

Overall, in 2060 the immigration system will stay the same as not a ton can change for immigrants and with the population growth rate seeking a very big drop, the government may require more immigrants to fill them in.

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How immigration is split in Canada

Canada closing door to immigrants

How Canada is becoming tighter with immigration laws

Aboriginals

Aboriginals, the original descendants of Canada that had land stolen from them. We can say they are lucky since they are not paying taxes but that is nothing compared to what they suffered. We cannot classify aboriginals as one big group as they split off into three main ones. Inuits who live mostly in the northern part of Canada/ Nunavut that have the province structured for them. Métis who are of European and Aboriginal descents that live mostly in the east of Canada. First nations who mostly live in the southern part of Canada.

All of them combined are around 1.4 million people representing 4.3% of Canada's current population (statistics from 2011 census, may be outdated). They have also increased a whopping 20.1% since 2006 as they increased by over 230,000 people. The aboriginal population is also very young with most aboriginals either being children or young adults. If we follow the trends in the demographic transition model (explained later on), it seems there might be a low birth rate as it might be hard for aboriginals to raise a ton of children.

It is uncertain if the aboriginals will have a healthy forthcoming in the future as their population is increasing but it might start becoming neutral as it can get harder to supply for a bunch of children.

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Graph showing the population of aboriginals in 2006 and 2011

Demography

We did not see a ton of change in immigration or aboriginals but in demography there would be a ton of changes. Currently, Canada is in stage 4 of the demographic transition model since we have a even amount of deaths as births since we are more developed than other countries.

Our current birth rate is 11/1000 people and our death rate is 8/1000 people which is reasonable for a country such as Canada. Most families have around 1-2 children today while back then having 3-4 children was normal!

The birth rate is going to decrease a lot more since the country is becoming crowded and we need to stabilize it especially with the amount of immigrants coming in to the country trying to work and live in Canada.

The death rate will decrease a bit but not as much as the birth rate since we will get better technology to help those in need but not ones that make us all immortal and live forever. It might spike up for a few years since baby boomers are reaching death at this point.

At the current moment, we are in stage 4 of the demographic transition model but we are entering stage 5 in the near future with the overall population growth rate decreasing. It might seem bad but it means more job opportunities and better lifestyles for people. It also means we can accept a lot more immigrants in which is very useful.

All in all it seems we will have a stable population with immigrants coming in to the country and more job opportunities popping up as the baby boomers will leave the job market.

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Demographic transition model describing the stages of birth rate and death rate of each stage

Stage 4- Present Canada, Low birth rate and death rate

Stage 5- Future Canada (2060), Very low birth rate and low death rate

The future of Canada

While it is not guaranteed that this is how 2060 will shape out, this is how it will possibly look like as current trends tell us a ton on how it might be in the future. It also tells us that our population will grow at a rapid pace with many immigrants seeking opportunities.

Lilhasson

Canada 2060 Soundcloud By Hasan Al Ahmad by Lilhasson

Source

"Immigration Watch Canada." Immigration Watch Canada. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/>.

"Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis and Inuit." Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis and Inuit. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-011-x/99-011-x2011001-eng.cfm>.

"Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis and Inuit." Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis and Inuit. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. <https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-011-x/99-011-x2011001-eng.cfm>.