Canada and Italy in 2040

What has our world become and what will it turn into?

The Beauty of Demography

Canada is an amazing place to live and so is Italy. The beautiful, scenic views of the Niagara Falls will convince many people to live there upfront . However, as many of us know most of Canada's population is immigrants and we didn't look at Canada's beauty and decided to immigrate, we looked at its demography to know if the country is better compared to the one we are already living in. For example, I emigrated from Dubai, the most beautiful urbanized country in the world. Who would want to leave such a luxurious country, however I understood the reason of my family immigrating to Canada when I learned, that the demography of a country is what really matters because those are the things that will impact the population as a whole. I picked Italy to be compared with Canada today and in 2040 so that we all can understand how the statistics of a country change its future from its past or present.

Canadian Immigration 2015 and 2040

Canadian Immigration 2015:

Today, Canadian immigration is the foundation of Canada's increasing population. If Canada didn't have a good immigration system then it would have been in Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model. This policy has made Canada one of the most multicultural and diverse country globally. There is a strict criteria and a process that allows an individual to immigrate to Canada. As of today, about 230 000 people have immigrated to Canada. Usually 3 types of people enter Canada legally, Business Class: Entrepreneurs and contributors to the economy, Family Class: immigrants who want to come to Canada to reunite with their families, Skilled Worker: People who want to or are nominated to work temporarily in Canada and lastly Refugee: the people who are fleeing their home country from cruelty, terrorism and etc. There are 3 major countries that Canada gets immigrants from the most; Philippines, China and India.

Canadian Immigration 2040:

Canadian immigration system will not have drastic changes because it is already doing a great job bringing in immigrants from around the world. In the coming years, Canada will get twice as much immigrants as it got in 2015 because Canada as a country will advanced and maintain being a developed country making it a good country to immigrate to. Also Canada will try and get as many young immigrants that are mostly skilled workers as possible because Canada wants to lower its median age and dependency load and replace the older population with more young people to maintain a lower median age and an increase rate of Canada's population.

Canadian Demography 2015

The demography of Canada is shown through the population pyramid show beside. It shows that Canada has a high dependency load which means that a lot of Canada's population is older than 60. The birth rate is 1.66 and that is indicated since the bottom of the pyramid is very narrow which is why Canada has an increasing population but with a slower rate. However, we can still manage a population of 35 million people due to a high immigration rate. The top of the pyramid is not very narrow because of a high life expectancy in our country. Life expectancy is the average period of how long a person can live. We are in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model because Canada's birth rate low and the death rate is even lower.

Canadian Demography 2040

The demography of Canada will be very similar to what it is today. The birth rate will decrease causing the fertility rate to drop as well which means our median age will increase. As the baby boomers will move on into their senior years, they will leave many jobs opportunities available which will bring in a huge amount of skilled worker class immigrants, thus increasing the immigration rate. This will replace the low birth rate which will maintain a good population growth rate. Soon enough, in my opinion, the death rate will stay the same or increase since the baby boomers will soon be reaching to the top and there are a lot of them, so in that time period the death rate will increase, changing the place of Canada on the DTM to Stage 5.

Italy compared to Canada (2015 vs 2040)

Increase or Decrease in 2014

Number of Increase 2015:

Italy's population will increase by 250 067 people or 0.42%. Whereas, Canada's population will increase by 267 297 people or 0.79%. Canada's population will increase 0.37% more than Italy's population. Canada's population will increase a little bit more than Italy's because of it's demography. Canada has a higher birth rate than Italy in comparison causing the population to increase a bit more than Italy's.

Number of Increase 2040:

I think in 2040 the number of increase will drop for Italy because the factors that impact increase will drop low such as the birth rate. Due to the circumstances in Italy, the birth rate has dropped low and this will impact the future of Italy. As for Canada, the increase will drop as well because the birth rates are expected to drop due to a low fertility rate and women not having more than 1-2 children in the lifetime.

Natural Increase (2014 vs. 2040)


The natural increase tells you at what rate does it increase at. To find the natural increase, we need to subtract the number of births by the death rate the natural increase for Italy is -38 296. Apparently, Italy has a natural decrease because the death rates are higher than the birth rates to due lower birth rates, older population, low life expectancy.

Natural increase= Births - Deaths

= 547 575 - 585 871

= -38 296


The natural increase for Canada is 79 935. This means Canada is actually increasing instead of decreasing like Italy. This means that Canada has a high life expectancy due to good living conditions and services and has a lower death rate than birth rate.

Natural Increase= Births - Deaths

= 357 274 - 277 339

= 79 935

Net Migration (2014 vs.2040)

The net migration is the difference of the immigration and emigration rate. Italy's net migration is 289 363 people. Italy, is surprisingly getting immigrants maybe due to the fact that more jobs are available since the population is aging and need younger people to immigrate. On the other hand, Canada is quite the same. The net migration of Canada is 196 362. The immigration of Canada is high and is going increase even more in 2040 due the baby boom population retiring which will cause more jobs to be available, thus more young working immigrants will be needed to fulfill the need of workers in the future.


Net Migration= Immigration Rate - Emigration Rate

= 289 363 people


Net Migration= Immigration rate - Emigration Rate

= 196 362

Population Growth Rate 2015 - 2040

The recent growth rate Italy is 0.61% and for Canada it is 1.15%. In comparison, Italy has a lower population growth than Canada considering the factors of demography with it. Italy is increasing its growth every year due to the changes that are happening annually. Whereas Canada is increasing rapidly due to the high immigration rate.

In the future, the growth rate will be decreasing for Italy because Italy has its birth rate lower than its death rate and that will happen again in 2040 due old population and low life expectancy. If there is a low life expectancy and the majority of the population is old, then the old population will pass away really fast fat causing the death rate to increase even higher. As for Canada, the population growth rate will definitely increase because we are receiving more immigrants every year. As the birth rate is low, the immigration rate takes cover for the low birth rate and still gives an increasing growth for Canada.

Push Factors of Canada and Italy 2015 vs. 2040

Push factors are reasons why an individual person will emigrate or leave a country. Canada is usually known for its pull factors since it has drawn the most immigrants from all over the world as it is a very multicultural country. However, every country has both. Italy also has push factors that cause people to move out of the country. Many of these things will continue one in the future because push and pull factors are things that don't change so fast because it displays the reputation of a country to the world.

Canada's Push Factors:

  • Harsh Weather Conditions: Most provinces and territories of Canada have cold, harsh weathers.
  • Less urbanized: A lot places in Canada are still rural due to less settlement there
  • Higher taxes to pay: some people cannot afford to pay taxes

Italy's Push Factors:

  • Doesn't have a stable population growth: If population growth flexes then Italy will sometimes have more than enough resources for everyone and sometimes an average family will be living on one meal a day.
  • Not a secure career future: People cannot get jobs unless they know someone who works there, the family has been already working, and people work longer than their retirement age
  • A very corruptive government: People can bribe government to get employed, or do something that help them but harm the rest of the population

Pull Factors of Italy and Canada 2015 vs. 2040

Pull Factors are the opposite of push factors. They draw people into a country. In the future, Canada will have more job opportunities as a pull factor and Italy will need more young immigrants to lower the median age and the dependency load. Some of Canada's pull factors are:

  • Multicultural place: Individuals can find people of their own culture and get to know other cultures.
  • Better lifestyle: People can start from the beginning when they enter Canada and get more career opportunities
  • Safe and Green environment: The environment is not as heavily polluted as other countries. There is no corruption and any career is approachable.

Italy's Pull Factors:

Here's a video of Italy's pull factors.

Italy pull factors
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Median Age 2015 vs. 2040

The median age is a number that has divided the population by the people aged above the middle age or by below the middle age. The median age for Italy is 44.7 while for Canada it is 40.3. Canada and Italy both have their median ages within the range of 40's because their birth rates and death rates are very similar. Canada is not far ahead of Italy due to the fact that both of them have a low birth rate. Italy has a higher median age because it has an older population than Canada and less young immigrants.

In the future, Canada's median age will increase to about 43.6 because the majority of the population will be getting older and young immigration won't be able replace such huge percent of the population as quickly. Italy's median age will about 47.2 because their population is already aging, their birth rate in tremendously low and they are receiving less young immigrants that can help lower the median age.

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Fertility Rate 2015 vs. 2040

Fertility rate indicates how many children did a woman have in her lifetime. In Italy, a woman had 1.46 (about 1) children in her lifetime and in Canada the fertility rate is 1.66 ( about 2). In Italy, this is one reason why they are naturally decreasing, because the fertility rate is low causing a drastic drop in the birth rate and the natural increase and the immigration rate also low which cannot replace the low births in Italy. Whereas, in Canada, it is not as a big of an issue due to high immigration rates.

In the future, the fertility rate for Canada will drop low because women will get more jobs opportunities in that the future due to majority of the population retiring. If women get more jobs then they wont have the time to take care of their children resulting in the fertility rate to drop. For Italy, it the fertility rate will drop even lower because they have an old population and not many young people. Also many of the older population is working and not letting the young to replace it, causing the people to not have children since they cannot afford it. this will result a major population decrease in 2040.

Canada 2015 vs 2040 and Italy 2015 vs. 2040

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Percent of Population Above 60 2015 vs. 2040

Italy's percentage of population over 60 is 47% and Canada's is 22%. The Canada's population above 60 is lower than Italy's because in the late 1980's the population of Italy had skyrocketed causing a lot of poverty and so there was a majority age of people just like Canada had at the time of baby boom. So as the population moved up the median age began to increase and the old population didn't want to face poverty again so they started to continue to work even after retiring age. For Canada the baby boom was a huge part of our population but as a huge as Italy's.

In the future, the population percent for Canada will decrease thanks to young and high immigration rates. As for Italy, the percent will go higher and then decrease after 2040 because the majority of the population will need to decrease which will take some time.

Italy's Low Birth Rate problems

Here's a video that will help you understand the facts why the birth rates are low in Italy!!!
Italy's low birthrate problem
Map Fight!



Comparing Canada and Italy by Brahmleen2018