Canada In 2060

Aleks Vranjes

Canada has always been thought of as a peaceful and tolerant country. We try to portray ourselves as the best country, advertising our rights and freedoms, but is there really equality in Canada like we say there is? The truth is, much of Canadian history is not talked about due to the change of opinion the world might have on this country. Throughout this report, I will talk about the demographics of Canada and the hidden truth of the First Nations society in Canada and what their struggle with equality is putting them through.

IMMIGRATION

Canadian Immigration Today

Canada is a very diverse country. We are known worldwide for our involvement in helping refugees and people all around the world find a new safe home in Canada. Currently we are still accepting large amounts of immigrants. Every year about 250 000 immigrants enter Canada. One in every five people in Canada is foreign born. The only time we reject immigrants is if they pose a medical threat to the population or if they are part of a terrorist organisation. Most people arriving in Canada settle in three cities; Toronto (32.8%), Vancouver (16.3%) and Montreal (13.3%). Right now most of our immigrants are coming from places all around Asia like India, China and the Philippines for many reasons.

Origin of Immigrants


Right now the majority of our immigrants come from areas of China, India and the Philippines. Most immigrants from these areas are either economic immigrants, refugees or family class immigrants. Specifically in parts of India and the Philippines, there are many refugees coming into Canada. Many people from the Philippines are seeking shelter in Canada due to the intense weather conditions (i.e. hurricanes). In parts of India, many people are fleeing oppression and mass poverty. In addition there is also intense weather conditions in India. Finally China provides many immigrants because of the simple reasons. They want a better life without a crowded lifestyle.
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As shown in the documentary "It's a Girl," woman are not treated as nicely in India as they should be. Many woman are killed at birth just because of their gender. It is a cruel practice that the government needs to get involved in and stop. Woman can't carry the family name and they make no money for the family. This is why they are looked down upon. Once woman are ready to marry, the family must pay a dowry to the husbands family. This ends up bringing debt to the family. This is why India has a preference for males. Due to this problem, many seek shelter in Canada in fear of their baby girls being murdered and the abusive lifestyle overall.
Also included in the documentary "It's a Girl," many Chinese have the same problem as India. The same practice as in India happens in China to its own extent. People are only allowed to have 1 child in Asia (2 if the first is a girl) which for some people isn't enough. This is why babies are killed at birth or sold. Woman bring no large financial gain and they don't carry the name of the family. Other than that, Chinese immigrate to Canada for the same reasons anybody else would. Many rights and freedoms along with good healthcare and stable government. Also good education for people who may be looking to start a practice in Canada. Some reasons people in the Philippines move to Canada are simply poverty, intense weather conditions and all the pull factors Canada advertises.
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Classes of Immigration


There are many different classes of immigration. There is business class immigration, family class immigration, economic class immigration and refugees. Most immigrants accepted to Canada are economic immigrants. Economic immigrants consist of many people. Business class immigrants as well as skilled workers are also considered economic immigrants. These are people who have a certain skill that could benefit Canada and people who are coming to Canada to establish a business. The image below is a comparison of the different classes of immigrants that arrive in Canada.
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Immigrating to Canada

Statistics of Canadian Immigration

Many reasons we are a popular country when it comes to immigration is because of the things we advertise. Here are some of Canada's pull factors:


  • Very good education system for parents to put their children in. (free education)
  • Good jobs available for people searching opportunity or skilled workers.
  • Rights and Freedoms, no prosecution of any sort, diversity
  • Democratic government
  • No wars going on, we are a very peaceful country
  • Opportunity for a better life for children
  • Safer society; there is no gendercide or abuse
  • Much Less poverty, prosperous communities
  • No food shortages, we are a fairly wealthy country
  • Family Class immigration for people who have relatives in our country.
  • Canadian Pension Plan for the elderly.
  • Free Medical Care for everybody

Canada's Immigration in the Future

After observing statistics regarding Canadian immigration I think that by the year 2060 that we will have a large increase in immigration. I think that most of our immigrants will be coming from mostly the same countries but we will have an increase in immigration from other countries like parts of Europe. In addition, I think more people will want to come to Canada because of the new pull factors we will advertise.
New Pull Factors


Canada will have the same pull factors in 2060 but I think that some will be weighted differently and there will be some new ones that will be advertised. If immigration continues at a growing rate, which I think will happen, then the areas that they are settling in now like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal will become overpopulated. This opens up many possibilities for new immigrants. Instead, Canada will start to advertise rural areas like Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. These areas will not be overcrowded at all so people may be attracted to the peacefulness and large amount of land available for farming or the beginning of new communities of their certain background. This way they could feel more comfortable. If all of this happens then I predict that the immigration rate will increase from 1 in 5 to 1.5/2 in 5. In addition to this, by the time 2060 comes along, I am sure that we will have advancements in medicine and new technology. Just like today, this will be a good thing for people in developing countries who need the medical care. Right now there are a lot of problems with certain governments around the world and small wars going on. I think that as time progresses that these problems (i.e. terrorism, North Korean government, war in Afghanistan) will increase. With the advancement of modern day life, other organizations like certain governments might want to take control of other countries or sever all ties with ally countries. This could result in more conflict; therefore pushing people to a safe place; Canada.

Future Origin of Immigrants


After watching the documentary "It's a Girl," I realized why so many people are immigrating to Canada from Asia. In the future I predict that not as many people will be immigrating from Asia and more will start coming from Europe. Although in many parts of Europe life is very good, I feel that in the near future, Canada will not be diverse. Right now we are a very diverse country, but in the future, if we continue accepting the majority of immigrants from Asia, we will have a large amount of people with an Asian background and only a small portion of Europeans and African Americans along with others. If this happens then the diverse country we have now will not be so "diverse."

There are many problems like the ones mentioned earlier in Asia so I have no doubt that we will still be receiving large quantities of immigrants from there but I suspect we will start to receive more immigrants from Europe. I believe that Canada will start to target Europe by doing things like advertising our good economy. Although life may be good in Europe, they have a horrible economy. Areas like Greece, Cyprus, and Portugal are so deep in debt that it wouldn't be a surprise if the economy crashed soon. With an economic catastrophe, the Canadian government would have a perfect opportunity to bring in people from Europe to increase our diversity.
Location of Settlement and the Change in Classes of Immigrants


As previously stated, I believe in the future (2060) that Canada's prairies like Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta will attract immigrants. These provinces have very low population and it would be good for people to start spreading out instead of clumping together in 3 cities; Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. If immigration continues at this rate then those three cities will become overpopulated. This is a big turn off for newcomers because they are coming from overpopulated areas in the first place. They want to get away from that lifestyle. Advertising these three provinces for immigration would attract more immigrants than advertising Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. As well as more space, the prairies offer the possibility to start new communities. Some people may be worried about immigration because they won't be with their people, but if we advertise for a certain country to start coming to the prairies, new communities consisting of their background will be formed. This will make them feel more comfortable and attract even more people to Canada.

Currently, the majority of our immigrants are economic immigrants. These consist of business class immigrants and skilled workers. I predict that by 2060, the majority of immigrants will be skilled workers. I think this because in the future, because of the baby boom a long time ago, we will have a minority of certain professions. As a result of the baby boom, there has been an overpopulation in the workforce. With those people getting older and retiring, there will be many job opening for newer generations. Today many students are finishing university and are unable to find work in their fields ie. teachers, and there is a shortage in skilled workers such as plumbers. This is where immigrants with such skills come in handy for the government. We can bring over people who have skills that we need and we don't need to train new people.

DEMOGRAPHY

Canadian Demography Today

Demography - the science of vital and social statistics, as of the births, deaths, diseases, marriages, populations, etc... So what are Canada's demographics anyway? Throughout this section of the report, I will talk about the general sub-topics of demography: population distribution, birth rate & death rate, natural increase rate and net migration rate.
Birth Rate & Death Rate


Canada has an overall population of 35.16 million and it's still growing fast. Most of it is due to the increase in immigration. What does this mean? This means that the birth rate is going down. Canada is currently in stage 4 when it comes to population overall. Based off of the charts below, we can see that in 2014, Canada had the majority of it's population between it's 30's to 60's. This can also be described as the baby boom. This was a point in time following the war when there was a large increase in birth rate. As we look at the bottom end of the graph, we see that Canada has a small birth rate (10.28). The only way to sustain our population is by accepting lots of immigrants. As Canada is developing into a more organized country in terms of population, people aren't having as many children as they used to, which results in lower birth rate. There isn't a need for a lot of children any more. Now, more and more families are having 2-3 children. Also shown on the graph for 2014 is that our death rate is low (7.87). Although, compared to other countries, we have a good life expectancy in Canada (83). Overall, Canada has a natural increase rate of 2.41. The video below talks about Canada's population pyramid and gives a prediction on how our demography will change in the future.

TED - Population Pyramids

Information on the Growth of Canada

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Population Distribution & Net Migration Rate


In Canada, because of our high immigration rate, our birth rate is very low. We have a high traffic of immigrants coming into Canada all the time. Our net migration rate is now 5.66. Immigrants target three main cities as mentioned before; Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. Regrading the rest of Canada's population, they are distributed differently. The majority of our population are in Ontario. This is sometime considered "Central Canada." The other provinces that contain the most of our population are Quebec and British Columbia. Ontario contains 38.7% of our total population. Quebec contains 23.1% and British Columbia contains 13.2%. The graph below is a comparison of the distribution in 1993 to recent years.

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Demography of Canada in the Future

In my opinion, by 2060, Canada's demographics will change a lot. Forty-five years from now there will be a large change in the dependency load in Canada. I also think that aside from dependency load, we will have a stabilization in our birth rate and death rate. We will still be in stage 4 but I think that we will stabilize and become more of a high tier country like Germany.
Change in Dependency load, Birth rate and Death rate


I predict that there will be a large change in dependency load. I know this because right now we have many people that are part of the baby boomers. The large bulge in the 2010 graph below shows the baby boomers. The graphs below are a representation of what Canada will look like, in terms of population, from now to 2060. We know how we will grow based on trends that we can see in previous population charts. Once the baby boomers are out of the work force and all of them are in their elderly stages, we will have a large amount of elderly in our society. With a increase in elderly, our dependency load will be weighted differently. We may have a lot more people in society doing nothing to contribute to economy (i.e. children, elderly and unemployed individuals) as opposed to people with jobs. This is what could give us a shortage of skilled workers. We are used to a large amount of people working and then everything will change. This is how I predicted previously that our immigration of skilled workers will increase.

Population Changes in the Future based on Trends

By 2060, I predict that our birth rate and death rate will change as well as dependency load. When watching Hans Rosling (click button below to watch video) on TED I learned a lot of things as to how our world could be shaped in the future. Right now there are three groups of people. The rich ones, moderate, lower than average, and very poor. If we want to eliminate the fourth party: very poor; we need to work together and plan our families correctly so that we don't have that much poverty. Advanced countries in the world family plan and have only 2-3 children instead of having big families which keeps the population stable and strong. If continents that are big with poverty start applying this then they will soon start to emerge into the light. This all has to do with Canada because if we want our population to stay stable and our economy to stay strong, we need to family plan. These predictions are shown in the graphs above. By 2060, it shows that our population will be very stable with an even amount in each age group.
Population Distribution


I believe that by 2060 we will have a large change in our population distribution. Earlier in the report, I talked about how I think that in the future we will have a lot more people in prairie areas of Canada due to the overpopulation in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. With more people moving towards these areas, then I think population in the big 3 cities will decrease and we will even out along the southern areas of Canada. Nobody really wants to be in the north of Canada.

FIRST NATIONS OF CANADA

First Nations Today

Canada and it's Native population have always been very close. The first nations people are the root of Canada. Their ancestors were here before any of us. Currently there have been many problems going on in the first nations' community regarding rights and freedoms and whether the government is treating them the way the should be treated.
The Indian Act & Problems along with it


The Indian Act was formed in 1876. It was originally meant to be a benefit to the first nations peoples and to help them feel more comfortable in Canada. Today with our country developing all the time, the Indian Act is starting to weigh the first nations people down and prevent them from rights. As we go back and see what the Indian Act really does, we realize that it goes against what Canada stands for. It separates the native populations rights from ours. The video below shows some things that the Indian Act prohibits natives from doing. This includes:


  • Taking out a mortgage, owning or selling property
  • Selling crops or other goods to other people outside their reserve
  • They can't get even get business loans
  • They can't lease cars


These are just a portion of the rights being held from the native population.

Shareable Facts: The Indian Act explained
The aboriginals of Canada do get benefits from the Indian Act though. The Indian Act gives them a special right. The native people of Canada all get something called a "status card." This is like a certificate to prove to the government that they are a native person. This makes them eligible to receive benefits from the government. These benefits include:



  • Not having to pay certain taxes that other do
  • Getting around 7 billion dollars a year to help sustain the reserves
  • Designated land for reserves
Although the natives get their own land, it is often very messy. They look like large places of poverty. The government hasn't made it their priority to make sure the native community have what they need and make their homes look nice. This is a large reason why the first nations community is upset with the government. People like Wab Kinew (ambassador for the native community) are speaking out and informing the rest of Canada on what is really going on in native reserves and why they think the Indian Act should be destroyed.
Residential Schools and Apologies


Residential schools have always been a very sensitive topic to talk about. The story reveals the hidden truth behind what really happened to native children. From the 1840s to the 1990s, the government had something called residential schools in operation. Every year, the government used to kidnap native children and bring them very far away from their family to go to a residential school. Here the instructions were to "kill the Indian in the child." Many families lost their children. At these schools a large transformation occurred in the native children. They "became" English. Throughout their stay, it was common to be beaten, abused, or raped. Many horrific things happened in these schools. Today, Prime Minister Harper has already apologized to the native community for the actions of Canada's past decisions, but the aboriginal community will never forget.

Demography of Canada's Natives


Canada's native people are all around us, we just aren't noticing them. Canada has a total of 1,400,685 natives here in Canada. They make up 4.3 percent of our total population. From looking at the graph below, we see that aboriginal peoples have a large birth rate. Most of their population are in their late 40s to 60s. This is like Canada's baby boomers although because of their high birth rate, they have a stable population. Native Canadians are not centered in one province, contrary to what other people may think. They are spread out all over Canada. The majority of first nations people are in Ontario. The other high native populated areas would be British Columbia, Alberta and Manitoba. They have gone more towards the plains.

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First Nations in the Future

Right now, things aren't that great with the natives of Canada. Based on what is happening now, I think something is going to happen soon that will repair Canada's government's relationship with the native community. I think they will start to move around the southern provinces of Canada and negotiate with the government to get rid of the Indian Act altogether.
Change in Aboriginal People's Demography


Today Canada's native population is distributed around more of the prairie areas like Alberta and Manitoba. If more immigrants start arriving in destinations like the prairies, this could upset them because the government granted them these reserves and if people start to invade their space, they could feel betrayed. This is why I think that natives will start to spread around off reserves and live among the rest of the population. This way they will show the government that they are just as equal as everyone else and they don't need reserves. This could be a big step in shaping Canada into a better country. In addition to this, I believe that the native population will stay the same. Based off of their population pyramid, we can see that they are a stable population.

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Solutions to Problems and How to Move Forward


In 45 years I predict that the Indian Act will be gone forever. The Indian Act has done nothing but cause problems. It deprives natives from rights they have earned and it's not right to deprive them. They were here before us and we are acting like they are below us. It is completely wrong. I think that once the government realizes this they will get rid of the Indian Act and prove to the world that Canada may have had a bad past that has been kept a secret but we are ready to move on together, all of us, including natives.

8th Fire Wab Kinew 500 years in 2 minutes
The native community is determined to achieve the rights they deserve. Many people like Wab Kinew have spoken out about this subject. The video above is of Wab Kinew speaking on the problem with natives in Canada. In 45 years I think that because of all this the government will give the natives a decision; keep the reserves and the government will make sure they are funded properly with all rights and freedoms, or live among the rest of the population. Although the Indian Act gives the natives special benefits, I strongly believe that they will be willing to give it all up if it means the destruction of the racist law we know as the Indian Act.

My Life in 2060

Conclusion

Despite our rough past, Canada has always been one of the best countries in the world to live in and we still are. We have an amazing economy and a great health care system. I believe that in the near future we will be booming with success. We will have more immigrants, stable population, peaceful communities, a diverse society and overall a better Canada.

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