Canada in 2050

Predictions of Canada in 2050

Introduction

What will Canada look like in 2050? The only way to know is to wait until we have reach that time, but we can also have a glimpse of the future using data from the past and present. In this newsletter I'm going to not only inform you all about how our current demography, immigration and First Nation, but also how they might be different in 2050 and also how my life will differ for my parents in 2050.

Demography

Current
Population

The population of Canada in 2011 was 33,476,688.
* This was a 5.9% change from the population in 2006, which was 31,612,897
The most populated province from that year was Ontario, the population in Ontario was 12,851,821 (Statistics Canada. "Population and dwelling counts, for Canada, provinces and territories, 2011 and 2006 censuses")
* which is also 38.39% of Canada's total population in 2011
* second was Quebec with a population of Quebec 7,903,001, 23.61% of Canada's total population in 2011
This shows that most of Canada's population is condensed in certain area, since the two province already have more than half of the total population.

The percent change every 10 years before had no steady change.
* one year the change from the previous 10 years was 11.1%, then the next 10 years showed a change of 34.2%
* only in the last 20 years that the change rate has slowed to a more steady change of 10% to 11%, the different between the change rate was only by 0.1% (Wikipedia. "Demographics of Canada")
At this rate the population change rate will slow down slowly until there isn't much change population anymore.

Growth rate

The growth rate of Canada has declined in recent years.

* from 2000 to 2010 the average annual growth was 1.1%

* it is expected to declined more in the next decades to around 0.9% annually from 2010 to 2060

Death, Birth, and Natural Increase rate
The current death rate per 1000 in 2012 is 7.4, the birth rate per 1000 is 11.0, and natural increase rate is 3.7. (Wikipedia. "Demographics of Canada")
Death rate
The death rate per 1000 has decrease from 16.2 in 1900 to 7.4 in 2012. (Wikipedia. "Demographics of Canada")
* it has been decreasing through the years with occasional incenses, but usually don't have too much change
* the death rate has gradually slowed down to around 7 per 1000, the last few years
This show that the death rate has reach a point where there will be major changes, usually a serious crisis happens, for example a war.
Birth rate
The birth rate per 1000 has decrease from 27.2 in 1900 to 11.0. (Wikipedia. "Demographics of Canada")
* it increased from 1900 to 1901, after has been decreasing until 1937, from 1937 it actually increased until 1957, from there the birth decreased to our current birth rate in 2012 which is 11.0
* the birth rate has gradually changed, whether it is increasing or decreasing, but it might have decreased slightly when it was increasing, this also happened when it was decreasing
* the birth rate of recent years has not change much, but it is still decreasing a little
This shows that the birth rate will probably it looks like it might decrease to the point that it match the death rate and there will not be any natural increase or population growth, but from the current birth of recent I don't think it will happen fast, but rather slowly
Natural Increase rate
The natural increase rate per 1000 has decreased from 11.0 in 1900 to 3.7 in 2012. (Wikipedia. "Demographics of Canada")
* unlike the birth and death rate the natural increase don't have a clearly decrease or increase until around 1957 when it stared to gradually decrease
* this is because the natural increase rate is determined by the birth and death rate and since the birth and death did not have a similar pattern until recently, so the natural increase rate could only decreased unless both birth and death rate also decreased
Since natural increase rate has to be determine by the birth and death rate, with their pattern the natural increase will begin to decrease slowly until the point there is little or none natural increase and the population will stay about the same.
Life expectancy
Canada's life expectancy has increase from 78 in 1994 to 81 in 2011. (Statistics Canada, "Life expectancy at birth, by sex, by province")
* in 2006 the life expectancy decrease from 81 to 80
* after the life expectancy increase back 81
The life expectancy of female is 83 and male is 79. (Statistics Canada, "Life expectancy at birth, by sex, by province")
* the life expectancy of females has been longer than males
The gap between the life expectancy of females and males has shrunk
* this shows the life expectancy will increase slowly, the females will increase slower than the males
Future - Predictions

In 2050 the population of Canada would be around 46.5 million.
* the population right now has slowed down to a growth of only around 1.1% annually

* the population growth is expected to slow down more to a growth of 0.9% annually between 2010 to 2060
The death rate in 2050 will still similar to now, it will be around 6 to 7 per 1000.
* because death rate in recent years has changed very little
* it has increased a little the last three years, but it has been around the 7 deaths per 1000 for around 30 years

* if the death rate continue with this pattern, it will have little to no change unless of a major crisis

* even if it changed, it will mostly likely decrease, because if the new resources we will have

The birth rate per 1000 will be around 8 to 9.

* unlike the death rate the birth rate has been around 11 births per 1000 for only around 10 years

* the fertility rate per women has been decreasing

The natural increase rate will decrease to around 1.5 to 2.
* since the difference between the birth and death rate has decreased and the population growth has decreased the natural increase rate will also decrease

Life expectancy will continue to growth to around 90.
* with all the resources we have and all the new resources we will find by the time we reach 2050, the life expectancy will increase with the help of the resources

* life expectancy has been increasing for a long time and will continue to follow this pattern
The life expectancy of males and females will be similar to each other.

* since the difference between the two has been shrinking in the recent years

Immigration

Current

Amount of immigrants

Since 2001, immigration has ranged between 221,352 and 262,236 immigrants per year.

In 2012, there were 257,887 permanent resident immigrants, which is 0.8% of the population. (Government of Canada. "Facts and figures 2012 – Immigration Overview: Permanent and Temporary Residents")

The amount of permanent resident immigrants has been a steady number since 2000

* the amount of permanent resident has stayed around 235,000 since 2000

* the amount of permanent resident has stayed around 0.7% or 0.8% of the total population

Country of Origin

Most of the immigrant population are from Europe, Asia and the Middle East in 2006.

The top 20 source countries of immigration in 2012 are China, Philippines, India, Pakistan, U.S.A., France, Iran, U.K., Haiti and South Korea. (Government of Canada. "Section 2: Managing Permanent Immigration and Temporary Migration")

Province of Settlement

Most immigrants settles in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and B.C. (Statistics Canada. "Immigrant population by place of birth, by province and territory (2006 Census)")

* Most immigrants who settles in these provinces are from Asia and Pacific, because of they have a larger population compare to others.

Most of immigration population are concentrated in or near large cities (Wikipedia. "Immigration to Canada")

* like Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal.

Push and Pull Factors

There are three main reason of immigration.

* to be together and reunite with their family

* to escape persecution and/or war

* for economic reasons, to work or to find available work

In 2010, Canada accepted 280,681 immigrants.

* 67% or 186,913 were economic immigrants

* 22% or 60,220 were family class immigrants

* 9% or 24,696 were refugees

* 2% or 8,845 were other

In 2012, most family class (57.6%) and economic immigrants (52.3%) are from Asia, most refugee (43.2%) are from Africa and most other immigrants (31.1%) are from South and Central America. (Government of Canada. "Facts and figures 2012 – Immigration Overview: Permanent and Temporary Residents")

Prediction

The amount of immigrants in 2050 will increase to around 300,000.

* in the last 10 years the amount of immigrants ranged from 221,352 and 262,236 immigrants per year

* the amount of immigrants in recent years has not changed a lot, it continue to follow the pattern

* though it continue to follow the steady pattern right now, the total population of the whole world will increase creating more immigrants

Most of the immigrants will be from Asia and the Middle East, like China and India.

* Asia and the Middle East have a large population that is increasing, even if not a large percent of their population immigrants, there will still be more immigrants from Asia and the Middle

Most of the immigrants will settle in Ontario, Quebec and B.C.

* these provinces already have a large of amount of immigrants

* these provinces are also the more urban provinces

* these provinces have the large cities

Most of the immigrants will come for mainly economics and family reason.

* as most refugees comes from Africa with a lot of developing countries, by 2050 there will be less developing countries, there will be less persecution or war and people will immigrant for other reasons

There will be less refugees.

* many countries are still developing right now, but by 2050 some countries will be more developed, causing less persecution or war

First Nation

Current

Population

In 2011, there was 1,400,685 people had an Aboriginal identity.

* makes up 4.3% of Canada's total population

From 2006 to 2011, the Aboriginal population increased by 20.1% or 232,385 people

Most Aboriginal people live in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and B.C.

* Aboriginal people makes up a large amount of the population of Nunavut and the Northwest Territories

In 2011, there were 851560 people identified as a First Nation person.

* makes up 60.8% of the total Aboriginal population

* makes up 2.6% of Canada's total population

Most First Nations people live in Ontario and the western provinces.

* also makes up large amount of the population of the Northwest Territories, Yukon, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

In 2011, 451, 795 people were identified as Métis.

* makes up 32.3% of Aboriginal population

* makes up 1.4% of the Canada's total population

Located in Northwest Territories, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, B.C. and Alberta.

In 2011, 59,445 people were identified as Inuit.

* makes up 4.2% of the Aboriginal population

* makes up 0.2 % of Canada's population

Most live in Inuit Nunangat.

* Inuit Nunagat stretches from Labrador to the Northwest Territories

28% of the Aboriginals are 14 and under. 18.2% of the Aboriginals are between 15 to 24. 6% of the Aboriginals are seniors 65 and over.

Most of the Aboriginal people lived in Ontario, 301,425 people

* makes up 21.5% of the total Aboriginal population

(Statistics Canada. "Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis, and Inuit")

Issues

Their living conditions are comparable to developing countries like Haiti. (The Star. "Stop the blame game") They have higher health problems and fetal alcohol syndrome. (Health Canada. "Fetal Alcohol Syndrome/Fetal Alcohol Effects") They have lower levels of education. (The Tyee. "Leading the Way for First Nations Learners")

They have higher levels of poverty. (CTV News. "Poverty to blame TB among aboriginals:experts") Gangs consisting Aboriginals across Canada, because of poor living conditions has become a problem. (CTV News. "Native Gangs spreading across Canada, says RCMP")

The Canadian Government has ignored the First Nations problems before, but in recent years they are trying to improve these factors. Like with the First Nations Education Act to improve their education levels.

Prediction

The Aboriginals population are going to increase by a huge amount.

* from 2006 to 2011 their population has increased to by 20.1% or 232,385 people

* it is unlikely that their population will not increase at this rate

Improved living conditions.

* the government has finally started trying to improve their educations, living condition and other factors

Life expectancy with be longer.

* since there living condition can be comparable to developing countries, right now they have shorter life expectancy

* they are trying to improve living conditions, better condition means longer and healthier lives

Improve education for the children.

* with the First Nation Education Act, it will help improve their education levels

Visuals

Big image
In this graph (Government of Canada. "Immigration overview: Permanent and temporary residents") it shows in 2012 that most of our immigrants comes for Asia and Pacific, even though it's a small percent of their total population, they are still a lot more immigrants from Asia and Pacific. Most of the immigrants from Asia and Pacific are family class and economic immigrants, most refugees are from Africa and other immigrants are from South and Central America. This supports how in 2050 that most of our immigrants are going to from Asia and Pacific, because of their large and increasing population, the same reason why most of immigrants are from Asia and Pacific right now. Also how there will be less refugees, since most refugees comes from Africa, because there are a lot of developing. In 2050 some of those developing will be more develop and there will be less people who need to escape persecution and war.
Big image
In this graph (Employment and Social Development Canada. "Canadians in Context - Population Size and Growth") it shows the declining fertility rate in recent years, the fertility has declined to around 1.6 children a woman would have in their lifetime. This supports how the population growth is going to decrease, because women are having less children than before. It also shows the birth, death and natural will decrease, since people are having less babies the birth rate will decrease, it has no effect on the death rate and the difference between the two or natural increase rate will decrease.
Big image
This graph (The Tyee. Katie Hyslop. “Leading the Way for First Nations Learners”) shows the difference between Aboriginals and other Canadian's education levels. As the graph shows, Aboriginals' education is quite lacking compare to other Canadians. They have lower percentage of people who has a college diploma, university degree, lower high school graduation rate and higher high school incompletion. The Canadian Government are trying to improve these rates with things like the First Nation Education Act. This supports my prediction of the education level improving, because how lacking the Aboriginals' education and the Canadian Government trying to improve this.

Video

Holmes on Reserve Homes
This video is about a guy named Mike Holmes developed a pilot project to create new and better housing in the First Nation communities and to improve the living conditions of First Nations. The First Nations face a housing crisis, many First Nation's communities are plagued with black mould and have unsafe drinking is only a few of the many problems. This pilot project also will help employ people on First Nation and generate revenue from utilizing new technologies. This supports my prediction of the First Nations having better living conditions and how life expectancy will be longer, with projects like this the First Nations living condition will improve and even help with other factors.

How my life in 2050 will be different from my parents' life

Lucy(8)

How my life in 2050 be different from my parents' life by Lucy(8)

Conclusion

What might Canada be like in 2050. Well using current and past trends and data, the population growth is going to decrease and the birth, death and natural increase rate will also decrease. A little more immigrants will come here, where they come from will be similar to now and more will come for economics and family reason. Our First Nation communities will be improve in many areas like education, living conditions and more. Now we have seen a glimpse of a possible future.

Bibliography

Government of Canada. "Facts and figures 2012 – Immigration Overview: Permanent and Temporary Residents" 07 Aug 2013. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2012/index.asp


Health Canada. "Fetal Alcohol Syndrome/Fetal Alcohol Effects" 23 Feb 2012. Web. 16 Mar 2014

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/fniah-spnia/famil/preg-gros/intro-eng.php


Hyslop, Katie. "Leading the Way for First Nations Learners" The Tyee. 24 Jun 2013. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/06/24/Shawn-Atleo-Education/


Statistics Canada."Aboriginal Peoples in Canada: First Nations People, Métis, and Inuit" 14 Jan 2014. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/as-sa/99-011-x/99-011-x2011001-eng.cfm


Statistics Canada. “Births and total fertility rate, by province and territory

(Fertility rate)” 19 Mar 2013. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/hlth85b-eng.htm

Statistics Canada. "Immigrant population by place of birth, by province and territory (2006 Census)" 11 Dec 2007. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo34a-eng.htm


Statistics Canada. "Life expectancy at birth, by sex, by province". 31 May 2012. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/health26-eng.htm


Statistics Canada. "Population and dwelling counts, for Canada, provinces and territories, 2011 and 2006 censuses" 13 Jan 2014. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&T=101&SR=1&S=3&O=D


The Canadian Press. "Native gangs spreading across Canada, says RCMP" CTV News. 16 Mar 2010. Web. 16 Mar 2014

http://www.ctvnews.ca/native-gangs-spreading-across-canada-says-rcmp-1.492684


The Canadian Press. "Poverty to blame for TD among aboriginals: expects" CTV News. 14 Nov 2008. Web. 16 Mar 2014

http://www.ctvnews.ca/poverty-to-blame-for-tb-among-aboriginals-experts-1.342651


Wikipedia. "Demographics of Canada" 4 Mar 2014. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada


Wikipedia. "Immigration to Canada" 7 Mar 2014. Web. 16 Mar 2014.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Canada


Wyld, Adrian. "Stop the blame game" Toronto Star. 30 Nov 2011. Web. 16. Mar 2014

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2011/11/30/stop_the_blame_game.html