Canada in 2040

What Will it be in 25 years and the Comparison with Germany?

Its Population

What will Canada turn into in 2040? I don't mean its physical properties, but its population. I want to know how the demography of Canad will change? What will happen with our birth rate and death rate? Will our immigrants continue to departure to Canada and improve our economy? What challenges will Canada experience?

Birth Rate, Death rate,and Natural Increase Rate

Birth rate- 10.29 births/1000 people

Death rate- 8.31 deaths/1000 people

Natural Increase rate- 1.98 births/1000 people

I predict that the Natural Increase rate will decrease over the course of our generation because less birth are occurring. Before 1995, our birth rate was humongous compared to the death rate. Our Natural Increase Rate was large. Canada's population was growing greatly after the 1900s where medicine was discovered. The death rate decreased, so now the birth rate was the only rate that was high. For a while, the Natural Increase rate was fantastic. In 1995, the birth rate fell extremely to a level where the population could decline in a matter of decades. By 2040, the population will be similar to the population of 2014 because of the Birth rate and Death rate both being low, making the Natural Increase rate low.

Immigration rate, Emigration rate, and Net Migration rate

Immigration rate- About 7 immigrants/1000 people

Emigration rate- About 2.34 emigrants/1000 people

Net Migration rate- 5.66 immigrants/1000 people

If 100 immigrants came to Canada...

6 of them would come from Africa

8 of them would come from West Asia

10 of them would come from Eastern Europe

14 of them would come from Southeast Asia

16 of them would come from South America

20 of them would come from Europe and North America

9 of them would come from South Asia

17 of them would come from East Asia

If 100 emigrants came back to Canada...

73 of them would be in their prime working years

  • 2/3 of the 73 returnees are Canadian-born
  • 1/3 of the 73 returnees were immigrants

27 of them would be seniors

  • 2/3 would be past immigrants
  • 1/3 would be Canadian-born

The Net Migration rate will continue to grow. Here's why!

Pull Factor

  • Economic opportunity
  • High Standard of living
  • Free Health care
  • Low crime rate
  • Problems from their country of origin and reasons to settle

The people coming to Canada are there to help the economy, be with their family, or are refugees.

The Asians and Europeans are overpopulated, so they must come to a great country like Canada to settle and live at a high standard.

The crime rate makes Canada really significant.

  • Canada was ranked 104th for their crime rate in the world
  • There so low with their 37.16 crime/1000 people

Free Health care is big for many people

  • Families may not be able to afford health care by paying

A lot of immigrants have had their problems in their country of origin

  • In the 1840s, a lot of Irish settlers arrived to Canada because of the famine that destroyed their farms
  • From 1905-1914, Eastern European came to Canada West for its free land
  • From 1947-1960, many Italians came to Canada because of the devastation caused by WW2 making the economy and politics weaker
  • In 1956, many Hungarians came to Canada as refugees to avoid the Russians and their punishment
  • From 1980-1997, Hong Kong Chinese immigrants arrives to Canada to seek political stability before China takes control of Hong Kong
  • From 1980-2003, many people from Afghanistan came to Canada to be safe from the danger of wars taken place

If situation like these continue to grow world-wide, Canada will have a greater Net Migration rate and economy.

Push Factor

  • Climate

The climate is horrific here in Canada. There are extreme weather conditions that can harm people's life. Immigrants may be afraid of the cold here in Canada. Last year, the weather was too horrific to handle for many citizens. A lot of our immigrants are coming from hot-weathered countries from near the equator. It's not likely that Asians and Africans will enjoy the cold climate.

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Canada's Annual Popualtion Growth and Rule of 70

A.P.G- 0.76%

Doubling time- 92 years to double

Canada's population is growing at a slow pace. They're currently 144th and has a low population. Their Birth rate and Natural Increase rate is falling. Canada is depending on overpopulated countries like India and China to migrate to their land and improve the economy. They receive a lot of people mostly because they are a multicultural society. For now and the future, they'll be increasing their population by receiving more immigrants. Our economy will grow by being multilingual. They'll double their population by 2106 at 70 million. In 2040, they should have a population of about 50 million people as it will be their half way mark to 70 years.

Germany and Canada

If I were to compare Canada with Germany, Canada has a greater Birth rate, Natural Increase rate, Immigration rate, Net Migration rate, and Crime rate. Germany has a stronger population, Death rate, and Emigration rate. With Canada wanting to grow and Germany trying to lower its population, their demographic statistics goes well with their intentions of their future.

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Germany's Birth rate, Death rate, Natural Increase rate

Birth rate- 8.42 births/1000 people

Death rate- 11.29 deaths/1000 people

Natural Increase rate- 2.87 deaths/1000 people

Germany's population has a huge death rate. If 11.29 deaths occur per 1000 people per year, that would mean that 914,452 people die out of their 80,996,685 citizens. Canada is only losing 289,477 people per year. Obviously, their population is at their maximum, so they don't want to add more to what they have. The natural increase shows that the population is experiencing more deaths than births. That is the kind of thing that occurs all over Europe.

Germany's Immigration rate, Emigration rate, Net Migration rate

Immigration rate- About 13.33 immigrants/1000 people

Emigration rate- About 8.79 emigrants/1000 people

Net Migration rate- 1.06 migrants/1000 people

As you can see, Germany is still getting more migrants because of their sustainability being great. The country itself is amazing. They're one of the strongest countries in the world. I would group them with USA, UK, Japan and China. Canada hasn't reached the success Germany has accomplished. Even if the population of Germany is overwhelming, people still want to leave there, even if it's crowded. Obviously, Germany doesn't have the Net Migration rate being as large as Canada, but in the future when Germany's population will decrease significantly, more people will migrate there.

Germany's Population Growth rate and Rule of 70

A.P.G.- (-0.18)%

Rule of 70- 389 years to decrease by half

Germany will have a decrease in its population due to the fact that a lot of death are occurring compared to death. They are approaching stage 5 of the Demographic Transition phase where death meets with birth and lowers the population significantly. Countries in Europe and Asia are losing a chunk of their population because they want to have a larger population density. India and China are two countries that have reached the population of billion. The land is tiny for what they have in it, which are the people. Germany is projected to lose half their population 389 years. In 2040, they'll have a population similar to what they have now as it will take a while for them to lose half of 80 million people. But their economy will change as less of their kinds are being born. As more immigrants like Muslims come into Germany, the dominance of the germens will be weaker and replaced. In 2050, I predict that Germany will have a great population, but its economy will change because of the dominance of the immigrants.

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Canada and Germany 2

Now that we've seen the two countries, we know that Canada will grow into a greater economy. They'll be receiving a lot of immigrants from overpopulated country like Germany and India. While Canada is gaining power as a country, Germany will slowly decrease so that they won't lose their superiority (economy) and not be too crowded as they currently are in 2014. Canada and Germany could possibly see a tie in their demographic profile because they are at a pace where they could collide as even powered countries in the near future. Germany may be ruled by the immigrants as less of their kinds are being born compared to the outsiders.
Unit 2 - Demographic Transition and Population Pyramids
European Demographics

Biruk Workneh

Canada 2040 Assignment Sound Cloud by Biruk Workneh


Canada in 2040 will great. It'll be better than today in 2014. More immigrants from around the world will departure to Canada and more businesses will improve the economy. The birth rate will be significant when it comes to the amount of English and French people are in Canada compared to other race. The death rate will be significant when it comes to the life expectancy rate. In 2040, there'll be less English and French people, and there'll be a higher expectancy rate since medical care will have improved by then.


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Rural Settlement Pattern

Rural Settlement Patterns

Rural areas are places out of cities. Farming, industries, fishing, etc. are located in rural areas. In Canada, many farms and small villages are located in rural areas, such as Barkmere in Quebec. There are at least 205,730 farms in Canada. We have a lot of free land that has not been urbanized, so farms took over and spread. In rural areas, such as Barkmere, there is a pattern of receiving more farms and having a small-density. There are dispersed patterns in some regions like the Interior Plains region where farms adjacent to each other are spread out far apart to cover the whole region. There are concentrated patterns in other regions like the Canadian Shield. The different areas are very crowded because of the resource-based communities that contain values such as nickels and coppers. In Sudbury, there is a mining facility because of the valuable minerals underground. The facility's purpose is to sell the minerals to the customers which are normally business people. There are linear patterns in areas like Barrie where settlers are located along highways to attract customers while they pass by the place.

Here are pictures of the three different rural settlement patterns.

The Three Factors Affecting Rural Settlement.

Canada With The Settlement Patterns.

In Canada, we can easily find the three patterns presented to you. When we're on the highway in rural areas, we'll see farms surrounding us, especially on the Hwy. 401 West. Those farms want us to see their business and be attracted to it. We wouldn't be able to go to those farms without them being in a linear pattern because we wouldn't know that they're at existence.

Dispersed patterns are normally cause by farming industries as they require a lot of space. The different farms in the regions spread out as they all take up to much land. You'll see that the Interior Plains has farms spread out widely.

Concentrated patterns are caused by valuables being located in an area. People go to that area to collect the merchandises for business purposes. Many people go to Sudbury to collect the resources so that they can sell it in their stores. A lot of hardware stores would go to the mining facility in Sudbury to collect the copper for wiring.

Here Are Three Scenerios Involving The Rural Settlement Pattern and The Survey System.


In Canada, people wanted to expand their lands for better production. They found a loop-hole to expanding their farms, which is consolidating with other farms. People wanted to combine their lands to create greater lands so that the sustainability will be greater.

The long lot pattern was very good with transportation as hinterlands were very near to the land, but the efficiency wasn't as great since there was a great distance of work to complete. We don't see much of this pattern as it's old and not efficient. If a farm is not efficient, it's pretty much useless.

The section system fitted well with the modern farm machinery, but the farms adjacent to it had a large distant separation. Farms with this system normally are far away from the economy as they aren't receiving much sales. There could be farms being as far as Churchill because they don't want to pay the tax for the land. It may be a farm used by the family only.

The concession pattern is a mixture of both the section system and the long lot pattern. Its efficiency and transportation method availability is at medium. It could be as far as Caledon because of the cheap land. There are people there who would buy the resources. It's not too far and too efficient, and not too close and too non-efficient.

Urban Settlement Pattern

Urban Settlement Pattern

Before the agricultural revolution began, everyone was egoist as they were only trying survive on Earth. When the agricultural revolution began, farms produced food surpluses. People were specialists in different parts of the farming field. It made sense to have farms consolidate with each other for trading capabilities. In one place, a village was born. The farms joined together to create the beginning of urbanization.


More people moved to urban areas. Cities traded goods and services with hinterlands. Today, it's difficult to think of a hinterland now than before. Before, people traded with the town/village adjacent to it, like farmers trading goods with other farmers. Now, we have the internet that does a lot of our shopping. Now, the residents of the area are the hinterlands as they trade their money for the goods and services. There are many people who go to malls and stores to buy goods and services.

Basic and Non-Basic Industries

In Canada, these are the kinds of industries that are at present. Basic Industries provide jobs for residents. When we go to basic industries, we pay for the goods and services. The money goes towards the expenses of the place and the residents salaries. The workers use the money to buy other goods and services, like our parents do when they get their checks. Without basic industries, the community wouldn't be sustainable enough to last long. Places like Rogers Centre provides jobs for 100s of residents. The economic base is great in Toronto as it acts as a tourist city. They have urban places that'll attract people from different communities. Vaughn has many farms people would like to visit because of the resources being locally developed. Toronto's urban and rural places are helping the economic base grow higher. There are places that are declining in their economic base because their functions are known as non-basic industries. Stores like Supersonic Pizza was receiving its money from local residents, so the money is technically being recycled. If the money is only being recycled, the place won't sustain itself and end up being bankrupt. Supersonic Pizza couldn't last longer than a year because they were getting the same money, so they caught themselves behind the urban revolution and couldn't keep up after, so they forfeited and went out of business. Non-basic industries depend on basic industries to be sustainable because the basic industries keep on getting new money from other communities.

Low-order, Middle-order and High-order Goods and Services

High-order goods and services must have a high threshold population. Since it's the kind of business that receives customers infrequently, it's important to have more customers to keep it sustainable. Low-order goods and services have a small threshold population to remain in business. They receive customers frequently as they don't live to far away from the store. Urban areas that are big and small have low-order goods and services because the customers will buy the goods and services frequently. Middle-order goods and services don't receive customers as frequent as low-order goods and services, so they need a larger threshold population. They don't require a threshold population as large as high-order goods and services since they receive more frequent customers.

Urban Places

Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver are diversified urban centres. They have functions like manufacturing centres, transportation hubs, service centres, cultural centres, and industrial centres.
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Manufacturing Cities

These are the places where resources are taken to be developed and transformed into a complete product. There are factories that make products and distribute them to buyers. Cities with factories influence the local resident to get a job there. These kind of cities are known as manufacturing cities. Sarnia, Ontario is a manufacturing city. They've grown with its role as an oil-based manufacturing centre. They're meant to manufacture cars and trucks. Sarnia also has grown into being a petrochemical industry during WW2. They produced many artificial rubber and other kinds of rubber to make plastic. After the war, rapid economic growth resulted in a growing demand for rubber and plastic.
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Transportation Hub

It's a big factor towards the urban success of places like Winnipeg and Thunder Bay. Winnipeg is the main route for the railway hub. Winnipeg can be entered much easier than other countries, giving it a great boost in its urban success. Thunder Bay has an excellent site for trading. Ships can transport through the great lakes to enter T.B. With Thunder Bay's situation as the largest grain-handling facility in the world, they've gain enormous transportation advantages for two centuries.
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Tourist Centres

Tourist Centres like Toronto attract people with their and/or human features. A lot of basic jobs like being a Toronto Blue Jays' player provides money that supports the local economy. New money from different communities come to tourist cities and boost the economic base.

Government Centres

They manage the urban and rural areas. Municipal takes care of garbage collection. Provincial takes care of healthcare. Federal takes care of old-age pension. These are the places that control our area to make it better and stronger. Services are provided thanks to the government centres. They help colonize our economy and allow it to evolve.
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Resource-Based Communities

These areas are villages, towns, or cities that have established to developing (a) resource(s). Sudbury and its mining is an example of a resource-based community.
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Urbanization is an in population density. Urban growth is the surplus/difference of an urban population. Our urban population has grown over the years because of advancements like technology and healthcare (the pull factor presented above on population). In rural areas, machines took over many jobs at the farm. The unemployment rate is rising as advancements continue to grow and take over a lot of our tasks. People from rural areas need to come to urban areas to find work. Urbanization is increasing in Canada as advancements evolve us.

Land Use

Canada's Land Use

In our land, we require factories, offices, houses, apartments, roads, railroads, stores, parks, cemeteries, and schools. They follow different categories in land use. The different land uses are open space and recreational, industries, commercial, residential, transportation, and institutional and public building. These lands uses provide the needs of individuals, businesses, governments, and the community.

Residential Land Use

In residential land use, it has houses and apartments, so homes. We use more than 40% of our land to have homes. At this point, Toronto has a great residential density as it is developed city, but a lot of places in Canada, like Bruce Mines doesn't have a great residential density. There are two factors that affect the residential density.

Transportation Land Use

Our transportation land use takes up about 32% of our entire land. Transportation is important when it comes to delivering people goods and services. Vehicles are very important for people when it comes to travelling. It's faster to transport to one place to another rather than walking. The only issue with vehicles is the fact that there are possibilities of traffic jams, which would make transporting much slower than walking. With public transportation comes the cost. People need to pay for the service. In areas like Brampton, the public transportation is great because there are a lot of people in the area. In areas like Bruce Mine, it isn't great to have public transportation because the population isn't large enough to sustain the service.

Travel Paths

There are four different kinds of travel paths.

One is the expressway. It holds a huge traffic over a long distance. There are a lot of expressways in Canada, like in Ontario. There are major expressways like Hwy. 427 and Hwy. 401. Hwy. 407 QEW. The QEW can go from near Woodbine to the Canadian-American border.

Arterial roads hold moderate amounts of traffic over a shorter distance compared to expressways. Commercial and industrial areas are built along these roads for transportation conveniences. There are two different kinds of arterials. The major arterials have 4 lanes. The minor arterials have two lanes.

Local roads are much smaller and narrower than arterial roads. These roads connect with arterial roads and homes.

Other travel paths include subway, streetcars, and railways.

Terminal Faciities

Terminal facilities are at the end of all travel paths. They are trains, subways, streetcars, and bus stations, rail freight yards, airports, docks, and parking lots and parking garages. They take up quite a number of lands in a city, like Toronto.

Commercial Land Use

Commercial land Use includes buying and selling goods and services I retail businesses (like Wal-Mart), wholesale buying (like Costco), financial establishments (like Manulife), and other services that are considered to be a business. 5% of the land is taken by commercial establishments. They provide jobs and bring money to the community. There are 6 types of commercial land uses.

Local Service Centres

These centres include very small businesses that serve low-order goods and services.
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Neighbourhood Plazas and Ribbons

These places are another type of commercial establishment where shopping is available along with parking areas. The businesses are also available in newer and older parts of the city. They are connected with arterial roads.
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Community Shopping Centrs

These places are malls that are found in major intersections, like Westwood Mall found on Goreway Dr. and Morning Star Dr. They have low-order and middle-order goods and services. Department stores and supermarkets act as anchors in the mall. They are located at the end of the mall so that people can pass by stores in between and be attracted to it.

In Westwood Mall, Fresh Co. and Wal-Mart are at the opposite ends of the mall so that the Malton residents can end up being in places like The Source and the food court.

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Power Centres

These places are places that own similar specifications as big-box stores. Places like Best Buy take up a lot of flooring space in an area as they display and store thousands of appliances. Power Centres being near three or more power centres are located near major arterial roads and expressways with an immense amount of parking space.

Car dealerships are normally beside each other so customers can feel free to compare and easily make a decision rather than having to make long-term decisions.

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Regional Shopping Centres

These places normally have what community shopping stores have and specialized stores that require a higher threshold population. It is located in the suburbs of a large city. They have a very large parking lot for the customers. They really focus on middle-order and high-order goods and services. Yorkdale mall is a perfect example of a regional shopping centre. It has small and specialized stores, like The Bays. It is located at Dufferin and York. They have a great deal of parking space and sell middle-order to high-order goods and services, like video games, clothes and jewellery.
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The Central Business District (CBD)

This is the area where land is mostly used. It contains the largest density with its skyscraper buildings. They are mainly used for financial, retail. entertainment and hotel land uses. They use very tall building to sustain as much offices and room as required without suffering a great deal of expenses. CBD have buildings close to each other to attract more people to buy goods and services as they would be surround the people. Since they're located around major arterial roads and expressways, it becomes much easier to transport to this district.

In downtown Toronto, financial buildings spread all over the place. There are hotels where people can sleep in as there are tourist attractions like the CN Tower and Rogers Centre. Places like Eaton Centre contains retail stores like Jays Shop. People would be tempted to buy the merchandises as it surrounds them. I could be in Eaton Centre and see all kinds of stores. There could be a fashion store that will influence me to buy clothes, then right beside it would be the Apple stores with all kinds of magnificent products.

Issues with CBD

There are issues with CBD like the fact that there are old buildings, tight roads, limited parking, and crowded, unattractive pedestrian areas. There are solutions for those issues. For old buildings, it should be destroyed, modernized, renovated, and/or specialized for tourism.

For the congested roads, widen the road, change it to a one-way street, expand public transit, minimizing car usage, restrict private car access to CBD, and/or eliminate on-street parking.

For limited parking, build more parking facilities and/or expand on-street parking (not recommended).

For the unattractive pedestrian areas, widen sidewalks, banish roads for walking space, and/or build mini-parks.

Industrial Land Use

Industrial land use is 6% of the entire Canadian land use. Industrial land use includes factories. warehousing, and shipping products. There are 4 types of industrial land use; CBD Industries, ribbon industries, suburban industries, and suburban business parks. Before the 1940s, factories were located near the lakes and water body. After the 1940s, factories were built along highways as trucking became the transportation for the goods and services. Since the 1950s, many industries in downtown relocated to suburb sites. Now, factories are nowhere near residential areas because they need a lot of space and a personal waterline, sewage, power, and fire and police protection. They are located on the cheaper lands as the buildings are spacious.
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CBD Industries

In CBD industries, there are well-established industrial districts, good transportation routes, some factories requiring bulk raw materials, warehouse and products, rundown multi-storey buildings and congested streets that'll cause people to move to the suburb areas.

Ribbon Industry

Ribbon Industries are along roads, rail lines, and shorelines of rivers and lakes as the city expands. They require cheaper lands and the availability of transportation routes. They may cause a tremendous amount of mess in the area, so it's not recommended to live around the area.
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Suburban Industrial Parks

In suburban industrial parks, it's carefully organized from the transportation route availability to the price of the land. It's a one-storey building. There are low bulks and high valued products, like computers and medicine. It's built with parking faculties for the employees, visitors, and transporters.
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Suburban Business Park

Suburban business parks are well-planned and landscaped, and has large parking facilities. They are modern and have spacious buildings. There are excellent road access, and there are a variety of large and small businesses and services. So basically corporations.
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Institutional and Public Building

They take up about 10% of our land and is occupied by hospitals, governments offices, and places with jobs. In Canada, there are more schools there are many schools and other institutes and public buildings.
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Open Space and Recreational Activity

They occupy about 7 % of Canada's land. Parks, playgrounds, playing fields, golf courses, fairgrounds, community centres, and arena are all open space and recreational land. They are used to enhance the beauty of the urban life. They allow people to participate in recreational activities like camping and playing sports. There are 7 NHL teams from Canada out of 31 entirely. There is 1 MLB team and 1 NBA team in Toronto. Compared to USA, Canada's recreational land use isn't great. In 2005, the green belt law came into effect as we need to protect some lands from being shattered as they symbolize our country.
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Factors Affecting Land Use

Land Value

The cost of the land is a factor affecting land use. In major cities such as Toronto and Montreal, it is very expensive to buy a piece of land. There have been houses sold that should have cost $300,000, but were sold for over $1,000,000. Since places like Toronto are so expensive, the residential density becomes greater because many buildings are at present making housing more affordable.


It's another factor affecting land use. It's the law that controls the kind of development in an area. The government avoids dirty lands being near residential communities for the convenience of the people.


It's probably the most powerful factor affecting land use in Canada. Since this country is very cold, a lot of indoor facilities were involving summer activities, and outdoor facilities involving winter activities. The winter-city concept supports the building of cities with inside and outside environment that are sustainable during long, harsh winter. There are also subways adjacent to the CBD, like Union station being near back corporations. People are able to proceed with their work without going outside. There are indoor malls that have amusement parks. The West Edmonton Mall is a popular facility that provides a water park experience. The Woodbine mall provides an amusement park experience as well with their Fantasy Fair. Thanks to the winter-city concept, we've been more protective to the pedestrians of our country. There are protective barriers shielding us from the wind. Skating rinks, toboggan runs, and ski hills are all outdoor facilities we're able to participate in thanks to our weather.


Now we've seen an advanced prospective of our Rural Settlement Pattern, Urban Settlement Pattern, and Land Use. We understand what caused rural settlement, which were resources at present, transportation method availability and government's roles. For urban settlement, they were goods and services, functions of the community and the basic industries allowing the non-basic industry to grow. Land Use pattern was developed by our urban society bettering by advancements such as technology. We use our land mostly for residential purposes as we need housing to stay within the city and develop other importance, such as industries and businesses. Thanks For Enjoying My Smore!!!!!
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