Canada in 2060

Immigration, Demography and First Nations

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Introduction

Canada will obviously look much different in 2060 then it looks today. Well what in terms of Demographics? In this flyer I will explain how Canada will be in terms of immigrants, birth and death rate, as well as population. I will also talk about First Nations and what changes would occur to them in 2060.

Main Topics

Demography

Demography is most likely going to be different after 44 years as Canada went through 4 demographic stages in a span of about 200 years. Demography is the study of statistics such as birth rate and death rate. In 2015, Canada had a birth rate of 1.61 children per women. 45 years before that in 1967 the birth rate was 2.53 births per women. That is almost 1 less baby!

So based on this research and the general trend in population pyramids there would almost certainly be a lower birth rate. So it could be very likely that Canada will go into stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model. If this were true, there would be a slightly higher death rate than birth rate. In the future, we would make advancements in health care and medicine leading to fewer deaths. Currently, Canada's birth rate is 10.29/1000 and the death rate is 8.39/1000. The Net Migration rate is 5.66/1000. Also, The Population Growth rate is 0.76%. The Natural Increase rate is 1.98. The population as of right now is around 36,286,378. In 2060, it will be 52.6 million according to Statistics Canada. This will be caused by immigrants as In 2060 the Natural Increase rate would most likely be negative by that time. Since, the Natural Increase rate is likely to be negative, this means Canada's population is mainly going to consist of elderly. This is because as people have fewer and fewer children, there would have been more people in the previous generation. By bringing in immigrants, Canada can introduce more young people to even out the elderly.

What Canada will look like in 2063

Fertility Rate in Canada 1960-2015

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Immigrants

Currently, Canada receives about 250,000 immigrants per year, But sources have claimed that in the future the amount of immigrants could increase to about 400,000 per year. The Net Migration rate is 5.66/1000 as mentioned before. In the future I think Canada will try to increase that amount due to the very low Natural Increase rate. This would lead to a growing country and would help Canada have a younger population. However, the population would still be old and this would lead to less people in the work force, making it easier to get a job for immigrants. More immigrants would help pay for health care for the elderly. Most immigrants would still be coming from south-east Asia, so countries like China and India. Stan Canada has claimed that in 2060 Canada's population will increase to 52.6 million! This is obviously going to be caused my immigrants because Canada's population would not grow on its own. I believe there will be an increased number of family immigrants because once some people immigrate here and find a job, many of their relatives would want to come as well to be reunited and to live a better life here. Refugees will fluctuate depending on the state of other countries, If many countries are at war, there will be many refugees. If the state of a country is improving after a war has ended there will be less refugees. The Push Factors for immigrants leaving their home country would be war and poverty. The pull factors that would attract immigrants to Canada would be how modern the life style is in Canada, better health care, the job opportunities and that Canada owns the most fresh water out of any country, which would be very important in 2060 as natural resources become more important People will still choose to live in provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia as they filled with large cities and jobs. When those provinces become overpopulated people will probably choose to live in Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan as they still provide decent weather and big cities. This makes them better choices than places such as Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
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First Nations

As of today, Aboriginals live a hard life on a reserve with a small chance of getting a good education. Many people don't care about them and believe they live an easy life without taxes and free land, but this is not the case. Aboriginals have a shorter life expectancy and higher suicide rates than the rest of Canada. In the future things could get a little better with more people standing up for change.They live a simple life without technology and go hunting to find food. Their population is pretty small around 1.3 million, But is rapidly growing as the average Aboriginal women has 2.6 births in her life. Sources claim that their population could reach 1.4 million by 2017. The Aboriginal populations has seen a 91% growth rate since 1996 to 2006. Aboriginals consist of 3 major groups, Metis, First Nations, and Inuit. Inuit take up 4% of the Aboriginal population, Metis take up around 32%. As of right now life expectancy for Inuit men is 64 and for women 73. Metis and First Nations have a life expectancy of about 73 for men and 79 for women. This is lower than the average Canadian life expectancy, But in the future I believe it will get better due to improvements in health care and sanitation around where they live. In the future we will Aboriginals get fairer treatment and more going on to University and College.
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Life In the Future

In Conclusion, Canada will be much different in the future than it is Today. The Natural Increase rate would negative, which would encourage the government to bring in more Immigrants. The Aboriginal population would grow larger and may get fairer treatment. The Canadian population would be very old, and they could live very long due to improvements in health care and sanitation. We could have improvements in technology which would help us create more jobs. Overall, I believe there will be many improvements in 2060 that will make living in Canada much easier.

Bibliography

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-520-x/2010001/part-partie3-eng.htm

"Section 3: Analysis of the Results of the Long-term Projections." Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories:. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 Mar. 2016.


http://www.indexmundi.com/canada/demographics_profile.html

"Canada Demographics Profile 2014." Canada Demographics Profile 2014. N.p., n.d. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-645-x/2010001/life-expectancy-esperance-vie-eng.htm

"Life Expectancy." Life Expectancy. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Mar. 2016.

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canada in 2060 by omar