CANADA IN 2060!
Let's zoom 45 years into the future...
Over the course of 45 years, circumstances are bound to change. It can either happen for the better or for the worse. Canada is currently the second largest country in the world (in terms of land size), however our population is nowhere near the amount that the nation can support. This is a good sign, according to experts, but what about in the long term? This flyer will give you some insight on 3 significant factors that contribute to the topic of Canada's changing population- demography, immigration and Aboriginals. We will explore current facts about each of these subgroups, and apply them to constructing predictions for 2060.
- Canada is considered to be under stage 4 of the demographic transition model
- Population was approximately 33.5 million according to a 2011 census by Stats Canada
- A decrease in fertility rate which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman (according to Bank of Canada)
- Baby boomers are beginning to retire
- Canadians born in 2000 are expected to live up to almost 3 decades longer than those born in the 1900's (higher life expectancy)
- The proportion of people aged 55-64 now exceed those aged 15-24 (according to stats Canada 2014)
In a nutshell, Canada is demographically categorized under stage 4, which is the low stationary stage. The country is fully industrialized and developed, however because of the low birth and death rates, there is very limited population growth. The baby boomers who were born post World War II are now reaching retirement age, and the baby echo which followed up after, makes up the bulk of our population not under the dependency load.
What about the future?
Based on these indicators, we know that the demographics are bound to be problematic. My main prediction is that by 2060, Canada will be one of the few countries to enter stage 5 of the demographic transition model. The characteristics of this stage entail the birth rate falling below the death rate, resulting in a population decline. In addition, I suppose fertility rates will be lower, resulting in even smaller families than there currently. According to projected statistics by Stats Canada, by 2051, about 1 in 4 Canadians is expected to be over the age of 65. Although there may be some positive sides to having less population, the aging factor will put a lot of pressure on Canada. In order to work around the consequences of having an aging population, by 2060, I anticipate the following:
- adjustments to immigration policies will be made (i.e. removing the barriers that keep skilled immigrants from contributing to their full potential)
- labour shortages will be fought (i.e. finding a way for few workers to get more jobs done)
- people may stay longer in the work force (considering the high life expectancy and continued improvement of our health care system)
What does the current situation look like?
- As of 2013, Canada’s annual immigration rate is about 250,000 immigrants
- Most of the Canadians immigrants come from China, India and Philippines
- 3 provinces with highest immigration rate are: Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia
- Pull factors to Canada include: good health care, quality education, multiculturalism, human rights, safety, good job opportunities, peace, democracy and better standards of living
Canada has always been known for supporting multiculturalism and ethnicity. Our current population makeup is mostly of immigrants; they are either business/entrepreneur immigrants, landed immigrants, independent/economic immigrants, skilled workers, family immigrants or refugees. This is the source that provides us with a larger work force and overall population, considering more and more of our population is falling under the dependency load. However, at the moment, Canada follows certain criteria (known as the point system) in which the immigrant must meet in order to be accepted as an immigrant. Additionally, the problem is that all the immigrants are heavily concentrated in certain parts of Canada, instead of dispersing throughout the country. Eventually, this is going to have to change.
How will this affect the future?
Using these indicators, I suspect that by 2060, Canada will rely heavily on immigrants. Taking into consideration the aging population and low birth rates, Canada has no choice but to keep taking in more immigrants (perhaps more than they already take).
But the question that arises is: Will Canada become more lenient in their immigration policies? I think that is eventually what they will resort to.
On the other hand, I feel as though the people who are emigrating from China, India, Philippines, and other countries currently, may not send as many immigrants as they do today. The reason I think so is because they mostly see Canada as a safe haven, or a place for a brighter future considering their own set of problems back in their home countries. I believe that it is fair to say that by 2060, these countries will begin to rise and become more industrialized than they are today which will result in less people wanting to immigrate to Canada. I predict that there will be many other countries providing a “good life”, and Canada may not necessarily be the only one to fulfill this.
Instead, I am assuming that we may see more immigrants coming from places like South America or Africa, since we do not see many of our immigrants coming from there in the present.
Overall, in the future, I imagine that Canada will become very needy of immigrants, but may not be able to receive the optimum amount, due to the growth and development of other countries.
What does the current situation look like?
What many of us are oblivious to is that the roots of our nation trace back to the Aboriginals who came to Canada several centuries ago. Think about this: Canadians are extremely receptive of diversity, and are always looking out for newcomers. However, why is it that our own people (Aboriginals) are not being treated fairly? Why can’t the Aboriginal population begin to resemble those of other Canadian groups?
Aboriginals have faced a troubled past, and here is some food for thought on their current situation:
- In 1876, the Canadian government created the Indian Act, an act that gave the Canadian government control over who could legally be considered an Indian (there are status and non-status Indians)
- They are known as the FNMI community and are categorized as either First Nations, Métis or Inuit
- Children are brutally treated at residential schools
- Health is a major concern; diabetes and obesity being just a few to name
- 50% of FNMI population is under 24
- According to Stats Canada in 2011, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta held the top number of individuals reporting Aboriginal identity
Aboriginals lived a free and cultured lifestyle up until the Indian Act came into action. Canada held several promises, and to date, has never fulfilled them all. The children were sent to residential schools wherein their goal was to “kill the Indian in the child”. They were physically, emotionally and sexually abused to a point where they simply became hopeless of freedom.
Any future predictons?
Although Aboriginals have not been as successful, many Canadians have come to the realization that Aboriginals are a huge makeup of our population and they have the right to be given importance to. Although their ways of life have yet to modernize, it does not mean that we deprive them of rights that we, as non-aboriginals have. A group named ‘Canadians for a New Partnership’ has been formed recently to work towards a goal to unify Canadians to achieve better living conditions, education, and economic opportunities for Aboriginal groups. If the government continues to work alongside the First Nations to better their relationships, the aboriginals can gain access to more of the services that other Canadians have.
My main prediction is that by 2060, all the outstanding treaty settlements will be made and equality between Aboriginals and non-aboriginals will rise at last. Here are some more thoughts for 2060:
- Due to the indicator that their population is so young, by 2060 I would imagine that there would be more population growth, which will contribute to Canada’s overall population
- Aboriginals will be more dispersed throughout the country instead of being concentrated in mostly the western provinces
- Due to lack of economic development on reserves, they will migrate to urban centers and will receive proper university education
HOW WILL MY LIFE DIFFER FROM THAT OF MY PARENTS IN 2060?
Canada2060 by user856763506
As you read this flyer, I hope it brought light to the current trends of Canadian population and how this will impact the future. As you can tell, the three distinct topics addressed in this flyer (demography, immigration and Aboriginals) work hand- in- hand to shape Canada’s overall population.
Let’s summarize the conclusions we came to:
- Due to the current demographic indicators, it is clear that Canada can easily be part of Stage 5 of the demographic transition model
- Canada will be in great need of immigrants and will have made adjustments to immigration policies, however, due to other countries developing rapidly as well, we may not see as many immigrants as we intend on having
- All conflicts between Canadians and Aboriginals will settle, they will be forced to modernize and Aboriginals will finally live the life they deserve
Looking at this flyer as a whole, we can foresee that our future holds mixed signs of change for Canada. All these indicators are signs of an industrialized country which can be a good example for many other countries, but we also must be able to bear our own challenges that will come along with it in the future. Nothing can ever run on a smooth path, can it?
“11 facts about the gap between First Nations and the rest of Canada.” Youtube. Youtube, n.d. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWK6ChJw8hs
“Aging Gracefully: Canada’s Inevitable Demographic Shift.” Bank of Canada. Bank of Canada, n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015. Link: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/04/aging-gracefully-canadas-inevitable/
“Canada’s population estimates: Age and sex, 2014.” Statistics Canada. Government of Canada, n.d. Web. 13 Mar. 2015. Link: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140926/dq140926b-eng.htm
“Canadians in Context- Aboriginal Population.” Employment and Social Development Canada, n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015. Link: http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=36
“Canadians For A New Partnership.” Canadians for a New Partnership, n.d. Web. 11 Mar. 2015. Link: http://www.cfnp.ca/
“Canada’s Recent Immigrants’ Country of Birth, 2006.” Restructure, n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015. Link: https://restructure.wordpress.com/2010/10/01/canada-recent-immigrants-place-of-birth-2006/
“A history of residential schools in Canada.” CBCNews, Canada, n.d. Web. 12 Mar. 2015. Link: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/a-history-of-residential-schools-in-canada-1.702280